Earnings Labs

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 18, 2014

$142.43

-1.41%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-2.12%

1 Week

-3.55%

1 Month

-7.52%

vs S&P

-9.43%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Richard Solomons

Management

Good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to our 2013 Full Year Results Presentation. In a moment Paul Edgecliff-Johnson will take you through the financial results in detail but first let me cover some highlights. The 2013 (indiscernible) 10th anniversary as a standalone company and was another year of strong performance for the business. Growing preference for our brands combined with solid net rooms expansion fueled increasingly from developing markets drove good growth in fees. Our focus on cost efficiencies combined with our success in leveraging our scale has allowed us to reinvest in the business whilst growing our margins, an achievement we have repeated now for a number of years. We have once again demonstrated IHG’s ability to drive powerful cash flows and to deliver against our commitment to reduce the capital intensity of the business releasing some $444 million cash from disposals in the year. And I’m delighted today to announce the disposal of InterContinental Mark Hopkins, San Francisco for a $120 million. This follows our agreement to dispose of 80% of its InterContinental New York Barclay in December with both the deals highlighting the enduring appeal of the InterContinental brand. IHG’s to reliably recycle capital provide this with the flexibility to invest behind our brands and our technology platforms at the same time as being able to generate significant and consistent shareholder returns. The $638 million of capital we returned in 2013 by a special dividend and share buyback together with the 9% growth in the 2013 total dividend announced today demonstrates both an ongoing commitment to our longstanding strategy and the confidence we have in our ability to drive strong performance into the future. I just want to say a few words about Paul before I hand over to him. Paul joined IHG almost 10 years ago and during that time he has held a number of senior finance positions across the group most recently heading up finance for our Europe and our Asia, Middle-East and Africa regions. He has also allowed hotel development in Europe, Middle-East and Africa as well as taking on the role of Interim Chief Executive for that region during 2011. So you can see Paul has a wealth of financial operational experience and he and I have worked together closely throughout his time at IHG and I’m delighted to have him as our CFO. So I will now hand over to Paul who will talk in more detail about the financial progress IHG has achieved in 2013 and I will return later to discuss our strategy with a particular focus on the progress our brands have made during the year. Paul?

Paul Edgecliff Johnson

Management

So thank you Richard and good morning everyone. It's been some years since I last stood up here. Good to see some familiar faces and I look forward to reconnecting with you in the coming months. We’re pleased to report another year of strong results in which we have delivered growth in all of our core financial metrics. Increases in both rooms under our brand and in revenue per available room or RevPAR drove a 4% increase in fee revenue. Reported profit growth of 10% included three large liquidated damages receipt totaling $46 million in the year. Without the benefit of these and excluding results from managed lease hotels and the owned revenue from InterContinental Hotel London Park Lane which we sold in May. We grew underlying profit by 8% on a constant currency basis. Interest was $19 million higher as $73 million reflecting average debt that was little higher as we have executed on our capital returns program. Our effective tax rate increased by 2 percentage points to 29%. Our expectation remains but our tax rate will rise to the low 30s in 2014. After these higher tax and interest cost, an 8% reduction in weighted average shares earnings per share increased to $158.3 up 14% year-on-year. We had another year of strong cash generation with free cash flow of $502 million up 11% on last year. I will go into more detail on this a little later on. Our focus remains on driving our three levers of growth to deliver long term sustainable performance. Royalty rate is the metric that is most stable as we operate long term contract almost all of which now have a minimum 20 year duration. So we don’t expect to see significant movement’s year-on-year. Comparable RevPAR growth of 3.8% was driven by rate…

Richard Solomons

Management

Thank you Paul. So many of you would be familiar with this slide which I showed on our educational event in November. It shows the major tailwinds that we believe will continue to drive up demand for hotel rooms over the next few decades. Growing GDP, globalization of trade in Asian populations mean that companies will require more travel and individuals will have more disposable income both key drivers of hotel demand especially for mid-market brands. Growing outbound travel flows for both business and leisure will in particular favor IHG given our geographic footprint and broad portfolio of brands which we have positioned to meet a wide range of guest needs. So we know that there are some solid drivers that will ensure that demand for hotel rooms will grow for some time into the future. Looking now to where that growth will be, IHG has hotels in some 100 countries and territories around the world, we’re primarily focusing our efforts on just 10 markets. These are the largest of fastest growing markets in the industry in which IHG has scaled a strong existing brand presence in which we’re aligned to our business model. We have calculated that by 2020 these 10 markets alone will account for more than three quarters of industry growth which means that combined they will achieve some 4.6% compound annual growth in industry room’s revenue. IHG has the industry leading system and pipeline position in these 10 markets today and they make up more than 85% of our combined open and pipeline rooms. Having this focus is essential and is a key part of our strategy. It allows us to direct the bulk of our resources and efforts where most of the demand growth will be. Markets elsewhere is also important to us but we…

Richard Solomons

Management

So will just talk about removals, signings, openings and that question. So before the removal of those few hotels which we got well over $40 million liquidated damages we had a 2.3% system size growth in 2013 and these are hard one to give specific guidance on year-by-year given the fact that almost all of these hotels with their owners. So I think our focus continues absolutely very much on signing quality hotels and driving quality. So the removal is almost all of the removals are about improving the quality of the portfolio and now talk through the benefits that we have seen from a heartbeat perspective on that. So we sit here today with about 5% of the world’s rooms and about 12% of the active pipeline. So our ability to continue to drive growth in our share of supply is very much there and that we will continue pushing that so I wouldn’t give you firm guidance but I think you can see from the signings, from the activity and from the quality focus that will continue to drive our system size but it is very much about quality not just about size.

Paul Edgecliff Johnson

Management

So in terms of the gross central cost Jamie, I think you’re referring to that rather than net after the central revenues which came in, the central revenues are a little higher than in previous years up 7 million due to some additional receipts from technology fees that we charge our owners. The central cost, we’re not saying anything around phasing that would particularly have an impact on 2014. Just sort of looking more in the round with that and the margin which we increased by 1.3 percentage points, it's a bit more than in previous years. I think couple of years we have increased it more than the average so the average over the last 10 years is at 1.1%, this year at 1.3% so there might be some catch up. In terms of the percentage of rooms through the systems and has that changed, not materially it does move around a little bit but it's not nothing particular to say there, so I will bring it down. I just talked about it in November. So nothing significant, no.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Three for me please. The first one is on China, one of your competitors in the U.S. did Q4 RevPAR of 3.5% guided so that being at similar rate for full year ’14, I think you did 2.4% in Q4, is that a good proxy for where we should see ’14 on an underlying basis and given the extensive new openings particularly in Tier 2 cities should the real number be sort of about 2 percentage points below that. The second one is on the CapEx I think you’re guiding obviously up towards 350 or indeed above that with the Barclay, can you gives a split of that maintenance and investment please? And the final one is on the IHG sorry the InterContinental Le Grand, did you consider disposing that prior to refurb like you’ve for the Barclay? Thanks.

Richard Solomons

Management

In terms of China it's such a big country and the dynamics in different cities are different but it's difficult to get these reed across. I think when you look at our performance against the market you know it's really significant outperformed there, which is down to the scale of our business. But we’re more geographically spread because we have been there longer and we’re much bigger than our competitor. So someone who is just in the Tier 1 markets, we will have a slightly different mix in their business and we didn’t guide on the 2014 RevPAR and individual region so I think there is a lot more we can see in terms of that. In terms of the CapEx we said that we think we gave you the top end of our normal guidance of 250 to 350 this year and yes the share of our investment behind the Barclay will be on top of that, so 20% of the $175 million is going into that which will spent across 2014 and 2015 and we don’t split that out because it does differ a little bit so on year-by-year between maintenance and growth but we give regular updates as to how that’s coming through and in terms of Le Grand the refurbishment we’re doing there is particularly of the (indiscernible) there which is a national monument in France, fabulous room if you’ve ever being. It does need some structure work done to the ceiling and so we really don’t have an option we have to do that under the requirements of French law and because we don’t have bad [ph] room available to sell I know it would be some disruptions to some of the rooms above it then we’re going to do some of the room product at the same time. So I wouldn’t read anything into that. Simon Larkin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Good morning. It's Simon Larkin from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Few questions from me please, on fee based margins pre your central revenues essential cost they were up around 55 bps with your developed market sort of U.S. and Europe up around 50 to 100 bps and you’re developing markets as you guided being down more like sort of a 150 to 200 bps. Whilst I know you’re reticent to give a specific fee based margin guidance going forward. I’m guessing from what I’ve heard this morning the broad shape of that mix is likely to be similar in 2014 ever 2015 and I guess my sort of question relates to A that but also B, is this going to continue to maybe 2-3 more years? Is this investment cycle like to be sort of persistent for the next 2 or 3 years or was this in the sort of 12 to 24 months and we can start seeing some of these margins and then just turn around the other way.

Richard Solomons

Management

I think we have grown our margins in wholesale of about 11 percentage points for the 10 years which considering the growth of the business and the investment we have put in particularly in the emerging markets but also areas like technology and so on. We think that’s a pretty solid performance and it's what is we set out to do as we get the benefits of scale not just in individual markets but across the company. So we have talked before that, we will continue to grow our margin overall as a business and I think again that’s appropriate given the size of the business but we are not managing margins year-by-year or quarter-by-quarter, region by region and the reality is that we’re investing as and when we need to do. So whether it's as we have done in China before or to create a big business in India given 12 hotels opened and 48 in the pipeline you’ve to invest behind that. So I think our intent is to continue to grow margins overall broadly this sort of level that we have been growing but I don’t think it makes sense frankly to guide specifically buying any particular region. I think you really need to look at it across the piece and indeed as we drive efficiencies in one market we may take those and invest in other market which will clearly alter the margins region by region.

Paul Edgecliff Johnson

Management

I think you covered very well Richard and we’re going to continue to grow margins that’s core of our strategy and the sense is to where we’re putting cost, we have got our 10 key markets and we know that we continue to grow in those markets in particular, it will be profitable growth while we’re just expanding everywhere in the world but we can’t do on a year-by-year basis getting into specific granularity of market by market. Simon Larkin – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Can you give us any sort of indication of what performance incentive fees directionally did 2013 over 2012 in your managed business of course?

Richard Solomons

Management

I think we had a few more that we’re paying but it wasn’t any major move and I think across the geographical breakdown again there wasn’t much of a move there so I think particular to that.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Just firstly you talked about short term external headwinds in your outlook commentary, just curious to know what you see those as being which key regions? And then in terms of RevPAR you’re ahead of peak occupancy now in the U.S. I guess how much further do you see that going? Is it going to be all around about rate growth in this point forward? And within that obviously you talked about Holiday Inn and had a slightly different shape in terms of the cycle slightly more resilient and in light of that, in light of slightly higher supplier growth generally coming through for that of midscale segment. Is there any comment that you can give around sort of your expected U.S. RevPAR growth outlook vis-à-vis the hotel industry?

Richard Solomons

Management

I don’t think I used the word headwinds, just talked about some economic uncertainties and I don’t think we see anything more than you see. So when we look at some of the markets that we’re in Europe obviously still big question mark so return to real GDP growth in Europe and in GDP is the best correlate to hotel revenues. In the short term you’ve got corporate profits, you’ve got disposable income and you’ve got confidence which drives business travels. I think we’re frankly in the same environment than any other global businesses so we have seen good performance in the U.S., very good performance in our AMEA region as Paul talked about but headwinds in Europe and some headwinds in parts of the Middle East as well still and you know news today about more violence in Thailand and that’s a small bit of our business but I think that’s the nature of a global company like ourselves. So overall we’re confident that we will see growth but still some headwinds in economic conditions in certain markets.

Paul Edgecliff Johnson

Management

I think when you get to this point in the cycle and you’re at the occupancies that we’re at then typically more of the growth is through rate and so I think that be what we expect in the North American market. There is still growth in occupancy coming through in other parts of our business where some of the hotels are still growing up through the system. So particularly out in Asia, Middle-East, Greater China. And in terms of the shape of Holiday Inn and how resilient that is through the cycle. We just wanted to pull that out, I suspect you’re all aware of that but we thought it's just worth pointing out that this is a brand, the Holiday Inn brand family as a whole that is much more resilient so just had a different shape through the cycle.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

So in that context would you expect but mostly likely be underperforming at this lesser end of the cycle.

Paul Edgecliff Johnson

Management

I’m not sure if there is underperforming but I think it's when you look at the absolute level of RevPAR that it's achieving a significantly higher than its competition it's got an ADR that’s $5 higher and it's got an occupancy that’s higher. So I think it's continuing to outperform so does that mean that the growth will be a little different? Possibly but I think the one that matters to our owners is how well the hotel brand is delivering to them.

Richard Solomons

Management

I think that’s a key point that the volatility you see in the weaker brands are indeed in upscale and luxury is very different to what you see in this midmarket. So there is only particular points in time whether we have quarter or year. You might say growth has been lower but we don’t see there is underperformance nor do our owners. Actually that resilience, that sustainability is a very important factor when you’re choosing a brand. Tim Barrett – Nomura: Tim Barrett from Nomura. Can I ask two things, firstly on growth CapEx, you have called a 129 million in the year and it sounds like a couple of 100 million this year. Can you give some guidance on how that’s split between acquisitions for even refurbishments and other expenditure and then on excess Jamie’s question slightly differently can you say how many rooms were associated with the liquidated damages that you’ve already booked or are booking for this quarter? Thank you.

Richard Solomons

Management

In terms of the growth CapEx for 2013 $72 million of that was for the three Even’s that we bought and in terms of going forward how the 250 to 350 (indiscernible) between maintenance and CapEx same answer to Jamie, well we’re going to split it out exactly it will differ year-by-year currently. In terms of exists and how many rooms relate to the liquidated damages receipt that we got in, that we will get in the first quarter this year it's actually only a few rooms it's a small hotel that’s leading in the North America market. In terms of (indiscernible) last year I think we pulled that one out about 4000 rooms that drove the $46 million of liquidated damages that we received last year. Tim Barrett – Nomura: And are you expecting to add or invest in Even Hotels this year within your growth guidance?

Richard Solomons

Management

We said that we will spend a $150 million behind launching the Even brand, put out $72 million so far in buying those hotels. We will put some into refurbishing them and getting them open. I would say they probably will be some more coming out in 2014, yes.

Paul Edgecliff Johnson

Management

Even’s we have signed about half (indiscernible) management contracts. So we will invest where we need to as across our brands to get the right locations, right places to recycle that capital. So it's no different there and I think we have been the level of interest is high. We haven't rolled it out on as mass basis at this point so we clearly want to get the first few open and test the proposition.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Just in terms of the resetting of these long term contracts in the Middle-East is that reassessed now largely over or might that be an ongoing feature?

Richard Solomons

Management

So these are some contracts that we have held for very many long time. We have been in the Middle-East for decades and they came out for renewal some of them were put on to more normal current fee terms and some we have decided to part company with really for quality reasons. That’s what we will see probably for few years so there will be cycle through, there is always some that will come out but we just saw more of a spike coming through in the last of the year, 18 months.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

So slightly abnormal last year?

Richard Solomons

Management

Yep. Ian Rennardson – Jefferies: Ian Rennardson from Jefferies. I’m just curious as to the timing of why no special dividend? Why no share buyback at this point? Given you’ve sold the Barclay, given you’ve sold the one in San Fran and given that you’re just over one times net debt to EBITDA? Do you’ve anything you can tell us about your thought on that, please?

Richard Solomons

Management

So the answer I usually give is, we have had incredible track record of returning funds of over $9 billion in the 10 years that we have been an independent company. We still have over $100 million left to go on the buyback. So I think we have got a good record. We will continue to balance the investment into the business, in our brands, in technology, and in growth versus returning to shareholders. I think we’ve got a good record there and we will get through the remaining buyback. James Ainley – Citi: James Ainley from Citi. On slide 6, you talked about the three growth drivers RevPAR rooms and royalty rate. If you grow some of the RevPAR and the rooms rate you’re coming out to kind of more over 5% fee growth but you reported 4.3%, so it sort of implies royalty rates were under pressure in some way, why is that kind of can you bridge the gap and so what’s driving that difference?

Richard Solomons

Management

We can work on bridging that, we can have another chat outside but the royalty rate continued to go up. We have seen no diminishing in that and this year and it's gone up a little bit over the last 10 years, we see a small incremental increases but as most of our contracts are a 20 year contracts and all the ones we are assigning now you don’t see much of movement year-by-year but as to why the math doesn’t work we can talk about that.

Paul Edgecliff Johnson

Management

It does work.

Richard Solomons

Management

Sorry it does work, you just multiply them together I can’t see why you’re saying it, it doesn’t look…

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Richard going to what you said food and beverage, does it have any material implication for owners [ph], is it like a repositioning of one of the Holiday Inn brands they would have to spend a lot of capital to adopt the new food and beverage proposals or is it more of the edges?

Richard Solomons

Management

No it's not like another big relaunches that we did before I think the reason we just thought it was appropriate to talk about is we haven't talked about it before and it is a very big piece in the business particularly in China and AMEA. It's been, there is no question that food and beverage is at the core of the guest experience, frankly whether it is the free breakfast in Holiday Inn Express or whether it's more of a full service restaurant offering in a Holiday Inn and it is something we have focused on for many years, it's just where we’re ramping it up sort of today. So it's one of those ongoing efforts and it's from our only perspective it's about what is the best offering for your asset, what is the best menu you can offer, can we actually help you buy that more efficiently and certainly as you’re looking to refurbish a hotel or refresh a hotel then we have offerings that you can take. So it's not a massive change it's simply of that service and the status is today. But it does become more and more important, I think as you grow the managed business and as you target your offerings more clearly. So the restaurant the food generally whether it's restaurant, whether it's banqueting or whether it's room service is a very important piece of the overall experience and having that expertise is really important.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

One thing I didn’t quite understand particularly that IHG Rewards was a way of I think promoting you might have said all of the brands but IHG isn't one of the brands, so is there an implication that IHG will get attached to the brands in some way or how does it work because it's a promotional tool when it's not itself trading brand of the business.

Richard Solomons

Management

It's highly unlikely to attach IHG to the brand, it's not similar to the way (indiscernible) prefer but what you’ve got I think again the more you understand the different needs, the different occasions that guests use hotels for which is what we have been very focused on. Clear it is how you help them use different brands in the family so I think if I think about myself (indiscernible) over next day in airport Holiday Inn Express is fine, a romantic week away with your partner in a nice resort but you’re the same person, same demographics. So with the Rewards Club it's a loyalty program so it's almost a relationship program. So you’re trying to build a relationship with guest and helping them understand that we got an Holiday Inn Express here, few InterContinental here and Indigo there and so that is that awareness that the brands are part of the family we have been driving which is a key enabler of driving share of guest wallet which is what we think about.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Two questions, one is sort of general industry question on supply. How concerned are you about the supply growth starting to increase in the U.S. particularly in midscale and also in the New York area where there seems to be an awful lot of supply coming on. Is that of any concern to you and what’s your view on that?

Richard Solomons

Management

I think look at it in different ways but frankly as a brand owner what’s most important to us is that we have more than our share of that supply that’s coming through because ultimately we’re well over 80% of our income stream is share of revenues. So we’re very keen to make sure that our individual owners do well and we drive the return on investment to their assets but clearly a supply growth is grown more on share so with 5% of the world’s rooms, 12% of the active pipeline we’re very much in the position of growing our supply share and when you look at, we talk about supply, we talk about RevPAR ultimately it's revenues that matter which is why we report revenues and we talk about that because that’s how we make our money. So actually I like new supply because we grow share through new supply.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

And then the other question I had was just on the significant one-offs and the sort of headwinds that you’re going into for next year and if my calculation is right you got 41 million or so liquidated damages which don’t repeat, you’ve got about 20 million of EBIT from disposed hotels and then the refurbishment is another 40 million, so it's 88 million of headwind. I guess offsetting that you’ve got managed income on the hotels that you’ve sold but also you’ve got lost EBIT on the hotels you had liquidated damages for. I mean net-net what do you think this sort of overall headwind is.

Paul Edgecliff Johnson

Management

Yeah I think that we try and give as much information as we can and you will see in the release time we have talked about some of the 2014 impact that you will see coming through both the positives, the liquidated damage will get in Americas in the first quarter and then the impact of refurbishment of Le Grand [ph] the impact of the refurbishment of some of the Asia, Middle East and Africa managed hotels. So you should be out of put a lot of information through, we always look at the trading performance on an underlying basis so looking at 2013 the liquidated damages receipts we had stripped out we looked about as a one-off and again when we look at 2014 there will be an impact of 2015 there won't be an impact from those so hopefully we will give an enough information for you to look at through.

Richard Solomons

Management

Time for one more I think.

Unidentified Analyst

Management

Can you talk about the incentive fees that have come through this year and how they compare to last year and also maybe compared to ’07 in terms of whether it's number of hotels or whatever as a percentage of these coming through in terms of incentive fees? I just want a sort of an idea of where we’re through the cycle the way sort of a year of it's away from the top pool or five year still.

Paul Edgecliff Johnson

Management

It hasn’t change materially from last year when we looked at it, it's not something that does actually for us change that much year-by-year so it's not something that we give a sort of running total back to against prior years and on this without going back and looking I couldn’t tell you how it's compared to 2007 because it is pretty stable and robust through the period.

Richard Solomons

Management

I think it's worthy pointing that as I said well over 80% or 85% now our income stream is shared revenues because we’re franchising because the way our contract is structure and a lot of our contracts in Middle-East and Asia are quite simple in terms of share revenue, share of profits. So we don’t have the extreme volatility around incentive fees that I know some of our U.S. competitors have because they have the different mix and different sorts of contracts. So I think it's one of the key drivers. Okay. Well thank you very much. We appreciate you being here. Thank you.