Kevin C. Berryman
Analyst · Stifel, Nicolaus
Thank you, Hernan, and good morning, good afternoon, everyone, on a snowy New York day. Turning to the fourth quarter, I'd like to view some key metrics and provide you with perspective on the importance of each. Our local currency sales growth in the fourth quarter was 7%, following 8% growth in the fourth quarter of 2012. On our third quarter earnings call, you might recall we were more cautious in tone, given the challenging comparison to the fourth quarter of 2012 when we delivered 15% growth in Fragrance Compounds and 7% like-for-like growth in Flavors. This quarter's growth of 7%, on top of 10% like-for-like growth in the prior year, speaks to many important things about IFF, not the least of which is our ability to harness the power of our creative, sales and development teams to deliver products that customers value. The emerging markets continue to be a strong growth driver and it's important to maintain perspective on the strengths of these markets, given the growth in the consumer market and the strength of the demand for products, which are rapidly becoming part of their emerging, more consumer-oriented lifestyles. Our margins expanded an additional 160 basis points in the quarter, based on moderation in input costs, combined with the strength of our strategic initiatives. I will touch on this later, as we still face an overall headwind to our margins due to the strong inflationary environment we faced in 2011 and 2012. The margin expansion and volume gains resulted in adjusted operating profit growth of 13%, or $13 million, on top of 9% growth in the fourth quarter of 2012. Our adjusted EPS improves 11% this quarter on top of 11% growth in 2012. I've shown this slide before, and I think it's important because this shows our continued progress in capturing the growth in the emerging markets. A key component of our growth plan is to capture the benefits of the wealth creation that's occurring in the fast-growing emerging markets. The slide highlights our increasing strength in the emerging markets over the last 3 years. Our percentage of sales in the emerging markets has increased from 44% in Q1 2010 to 50% in the fourth quarter of 2013. We believe our index to the emerging markets is the highest in our industry and is reflected in our strong organic growth rates. Over the last 3 years, our compound annual growth rate in the emerging markets is nearly 9%, and we believe that the emerging market opportunity remains largely intact given the long-term trends of 1 billion-plus new consumers entering the market to purchase consumer packaged goods for the first time. Turning to the next slide, I have also shown this one before, which provides insight to our gross margin progression in light of historically high input cost increases. This slide demonstrates that even though we are seeing margin gains of 210 basis points in 2013, the net impact of historical rising input cost on our margins continues to be a headwind. If we look at the period full year 2010 to full year 2013, you will see the factors that are leading to the gross margin improvement between the 2 years. We chose the full year of 2010 since that is the last comparable full year period prior to the large increase in input costs that we saw and experienced in 2011 and 2012. Over the 3-year period, the net impact of pricing and input cost has been a negative 130 basis points on our gross margins, as evidenced by the red bar. As you know, we proactively worked with customers to implement pricing increases to reduce the strong pressure from these higher input costs and limit the inflationary pressure to the 130 basis points noted on the slide. However, the importance of the execution of our strategy, where we adopt numerous measures to improve our margins, including the exit of low-margin sales activities, cost-savings initiatives, innovation enhancements, manufacturing efficiencies and restructuring and other gross margin improvement efforts, cannot be overstated. These strategic improvements had a 340-basis-point improvement positive impact on our margins over the 3-year period, as shown by the green bar on the chart. This more than offset the negative 130-basis-point reduction from the net impact of input costs and pricing. Importantly, going forward into 2014, we are seeing some input costs increasing, which will require us to have selective and targeted discussions with some customers regarding price increases. Turning to our RSA costs. Our adjusted RSA, as a percent of sales, increased 70 basis points from 27.6% to 28.3% of sales. The higher RSA reflects additional incentive compensation provisions related to our strong performance in 2013 and other miscellaneous costs, including acquisition-related costs of Aromor. For the second year in a row, our strong performance in Q4 triggered higher incentive accruals to our AIP program, and as a result, we have higher provisions in Q4 2013 versus Q4 2012. Other incremental costs we incurred in the fourth quarter are related to nonstructural expenses that add approximately $5 million to $6 million to fourth quarter RSA costs. We also incurred higher R&D expenses this quarter, related to our investments in innovation. R&D increased 13% year-over-year and, as a percent of sales, increased to 9.7% of sales in the fourth quarter of 2013, up from 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012. If we're to exclude these non-structural costs and additional incentive compensation accruals from RSA, then our sales and administrative costs would have increased more in line with inflation, and this would have resulted in our RSA, as a percent of sales, falling versus the year-ago quarter. Again, we remain disciplined in our approach to spending, and going forward, cost discipline will be a continued focus while we strategically invest in research and development and other business development opportunities. A foreign currency translation this quarter had a minimal impact on our reported sales. The more limited volatility in the euro-dollar exchange rate, combined with hedging activities with the euro, has resulted in foreign currency impacts having an insignificant impact on our operating profit results. The operating impact on our full year results was also muted. For 2014, we are nearly 80% hedged against the euro at levels that approximate $1.32 per euro -- euro per dollar, effectively consistent with the average exchange rate levels for the full year 2013. At current rates, the operating impacts on our 2014 results is expected to continue to be benign. Given the recent volatility we have seen in some emerging market currencies, I would like to remind those on the call about our emerging market foreign currency profile. As you know, IFF sales into emerging markets are significant. Importantly, while 50% of our sales are through the emerging markets, a significant portion of these are not subject to foreign exchange risk to the extent that you might imagine. More specifically, much of our sales in the emerging markets are subject to commercial arrangements that significantly reduce the currency volatility on our results. Specifically, various commercial terms allow us to better align our foreign exchange exposure on sales with developed market currencies or harder currencies such as the euro or U.S. dollar. Therefore, as you can see in this chart, of the 50% of our sales that are to the emerging markets, approximately 2/3 are aligned with U.S. dollars or other hard currencies, leaving less than 1/3 that are fully exposed to local currency volatility. Turning to our cash flow. As you know, our business is very cash-generative, and we are pleased with our improved operating cash flow performance this year. For 2013, our operating cash flow was $408 million, or 13.8% of sales, versus $324 million, or 11.5%, of sales in 2012. There are some large items impacting our comparability that I would like to discuss. First, last year, we had a cash outflow of $105.5 million related to our Spanish income tax settlement for the 2004 to 2010 years. This outflow was included in our 2012 full year number; number two, in 2013, the company made $30 million of contributions to our qualified U.S. pension plans, or an incremental $15 million versus normal levels; and finally, number three, also in 2013, we made $33 million in payments related to Spanish tax assessments for the 2010 to -- excuse me, 2002 and 2011 tax years. If we exclude these items to make the year-over-year comparison more representative, then our cash flow would have improved from $430 million to $456 million, or an increase of 6%. Turning to our capital structure. We are making progress on our share buyback program. Through the end of the year, we repurchased approximately 656,000 shares at an average price of $78 per share. We spent approximately $51 million on this effort, meeting our expectations for the year. And given current market dynamics, we would expect to spend a minimum $75 million in share repurchases in 2014, effectively offsetting any share count pre-associated with option grants. Our current quarterly payment dividend of $0.39 per quarter based on our 2013 net income provides a payout ratio of approximately 35%. And this is versus a payout ratio of 30% associated with our previous quarterly dividend of $0.34, which we had at the beginning of the year. Per our normal process, our evaluation of an increase in our quarterly dividend level will be completed during the third quarter of this year. Turning to our long-term financial targets. These targets, as you know, provide our view on the expected growth of our business for 3 key metrics. Our targets call for 4% to 6% local currency sales growth, 7% to 9% adjusted operating profit growth and 10-plus percent adjusted EPS growth. I would like to benchmark our actual performance on a 5-year, 3-year and 1-year basis against these targets. First, looking at our local currency sales growth, our long-term targets call for growth of 4% to 6%. If we look at our 5-year compound annual growth rate, our local currency growth was 5%. On a 3-year basis, we experienced growth of 4%, and on a 1-year basis, our growth was 5%, reflecting our strong performance in 2013. It is also important to remember that on a like-for-like basis, our growth would have been 6% in 2013. We have met our local currency sales growth targets on a compounded 5-, 3-, and 1-year basis. And importantly, our growth from new wins in 2013 was at a 5-year high, which is a good foundation of that growth that we saw this past year. Turning to our adjusted operating profit growth. Our long-term growth targets call for adjusted operating profit growth of 7% to 9%. On a 5-year basis, our compound annual growth rate was 8%. On a 3-year basis, it was 8%. And looking at our 1-year growth, we achieved adjusted operating profit growth of 11% in 2013. Consistent with our performance against our local currency sales growth target, we have met our adjusted OP growth targets on a compounded 5-, 3- and 1-year basis. For 2013, there was a clear acceleration in our profit growth. Finally, turning to our adjusted EPS growth targets. On a 5-year basis, we achieved a compound annual growth rate of 10%. On a 3-year basis, it was also 10%. And for the full year 2013, we achieved growth of 12%. And again, we have met our adjusted EPS growth targets on a compounded 5-, 3- and 1-year basis. Importantly, we have met all of these objectives while remaining committed to our investment in innovation with R&D expenses nearing 9% for the full year 2013 and 9.7% in the fourth quarter. Let me now turn it over to Doug to provide some comments regarding our 2014 outlook.