Andy Silvernail
Analyst · Wells Fargo Advisors. Please proceed with your questions
Thanks Mike. Hey, I appreciate everybody joining us here for our third quarter conference call. As we get into the details here, I want to lay out a couple of very important messages. In the face of continuing macroeconomic challenges, I think there are three critical things to take away. The first is our execution has been outstanding. Whether it's profit execution or cash execution or focusing on our critical niche markets in our profit pools, our teams have done really an exceptional job around that. Second, I think we can note the power of our disciplined capital deployment, and I will go into that in detail as we walk through the call here. And, three, we are extremely well-positioned with our balance sheet and our cash flows to continue with our disciplined capital deployment to drive total shareholder return. And so as we go through the discussion today, I think those are the three key messages to keep in mind. In the quarter, we saw a ratable up tick in orders throughout the quarter, as we did in the second quarter. We delivered 2% organic growth, and that's the first time we've seen that in six quarters. And overall, the results were strong. Our orders were up 9%; our sales were up 5%. Again, organic orders were up 2%; organic sales were down 2%. We had adjusted EPS of $0.92, which was up $0.03 or 3%. But please keep in mind that included a $4.6 million inventory step-up charge related to AWG and the SFC acquisitions. Our adjusted operating margin was 20.9%. That was down 60 basis points from last year, but it was negatively impacted by that step-up that I just noted of $4.6 million. In the fourth quarter, we are going to have a remaining $5.2 million of step-up for the SFC acquisition, and I will go through that in more detail. But I think it is important to note that in the quarter, we saw an impact of about $0.04 a share in step-up, and it impacted our operating margin by 90 basis points. In the quarter, we had tremendous cash production $125 million of operating cash production and $114 million of free cash flow, which I will note is a record. We did close the two acquisitions in the quarter, AWG and SFC. AWG was on July 1 and SFC was on August 31. And we are delighted to have both of them as part of the IDEX family. And I will talk a minute more about how they fit and our outlook for those businesses. Additionally, we divested two non-strategic product lines in the quarter, and we did the third here in the first part of October. We also made the decision to utilize $125 million of our overseas cash to partially fund the acquisitions. That did come at a cost of about $5.2 million in the quarter and it raised our effective tax rate to 29.6% versus our guidance of 27%. That had a $0.03 negative impact on our adjusted EPS for the quarter. And, again, I'm going to -- in just a few minutes, I'm going to take some time and walk you through the puts and takes so you can get a clean sense of what our operating earnings were for the quarter and what you should expect going forward. Before I do that, however, let me talk a little bit about what we're seeing in our core markets and geographies. Really the trends remain the same from what we have been talking about for the last three quarters or so. In our energy world, demand does remain weak. It impacts our energy, our banded and ceiling solutions platforms, but it is certainly no worse than we have seen at any one time, and we have talked about stability in some of those markets. And that goes true for our industrial world, especially in industrial distribution. We have seen stability; we talked about that in the second quarter. And we have seen sequential stability from Q1 until today in certainly in our day rate business. On the ag side, ag prices continue to be depressed. We did see a little bit of upside here in the quarter for the first time in quite some time. And although we are certainly not calling an improvement here, we do believe that we've seen a bottom. Life science and scientific fluidics continues to outperform. This has been a great story for us for quite some time and it will be going forward. Our core markets of bio, analytical instrumentation and IBD are all doing well. With that said there has been some news lately about what's going on in the genetic sequencing world, so I want to take a second and just address that. First and foremost, that is a great segment of the market that is going to grow double-digit for the foreseeable future and is going to have legs for a long time to come. And so, we like our position in that market, we like our -- where we are positioned with customers in that market. But also remember we don't have a single customer within IDEX that represents more than 2% of our sales. And so there has been some -- we have seen some commentary lately suggesting that it is substantially higher than that, but I just want to make sure that we were accurate: that no customer represents more than 2% of our sales. We are bullish about these markets as we go forward, and we will continue to make bets aligned with those markets. Municipal, it remains solid, and we do expect to see modest increases going forward, as we've noted in the past discussions. Around certain regions, North America, the story here is really around what is happening around industrial and energy markets, principally around industrial distribution. And we expect that to be, as I just mentioned a minute ago, stable, but really no signs yet of recovery. Europe, obviously with what's going on in the U.K., it brings some volatility. We haven't seen any direct impact to our business in Europe. It has been positive for us this year, especially around our dispensing and our water businesses. In China -- or Asia, rather, China has been muted. And India has been a very good new story for us, especially around our fire, our rescue, our energy and our dispensing businesses. All right. Let me pivot for a moment and move from markets to talk about capital deployment because that's been a big piece of our story here in 2015 and now 2016. If you think about our value creation model, it is very much supported by a balanced and disciplined capital deployment strategy. And we're going to fully fund organic growth. We've always made a commitment to do that, and we will continue to do that. We are going to pay consistent shareholder dividends. We will buy back shares when it makes sense to create value, and we are going to focus on executing in M&A. We've got a great balance sheet, strong free cash flows and a good acquisition pipeline as we think about the balance of 2016 and certainly into the future. On M&A, we have put over $0.5 billion to work here this year including AWG, SFC and also Akron earlier in the year. If you think about AWG and Akron in particular, it has helped us build a terrific fire and safety platform. We have channel opportunities, we have innovation opportunities and we certainly have cost opportunities to drive this portfolio into the future. We also completed the acquisition of SFC Koenig on August 31. That cost us €217 million and we have got a great business here based in Switzerland. They are a global leader around highly engineered metal-per-metals seals. It really focuses on high pressure and high temperature and transportation to hydraulic markets, but it is very scalable. As I think about opportunities in their core business to take market share and in adjacent businesses around aerospace and medical, we have a terrific business in SFC. And we're delighted to have all three as part of the IDEX family. Other elements of capital deployment, this year we have spent $55 million buying back 739,000 shares at an average price of $74 a share. So I think we've executed that well. As I mentioned before, we are going to fully fund organic growth. We've taken an aggressive segmentation to our portfolio thinking about where we have great advantages in niches and where the profit pools are really attractive. And we continue to drive investment in that for above-market growth. And then finally on dividends, we have told you for a long time now our goal is 30% to 35% of net income, and we will continue to execute around that. The last element I want to talk about with capital deployment is really the position of our balance sheet. And I think this is critical as you think about our ability to drive total shareholder return for the long-term. As I noted earlier, we utilized $125 million of our global cash to fund our Q3 acquisitions. This did drive a higher than expected quarterly tax rate, but we thought it was prudent, given where the cash sat around the world, our ability to put money to work in attractive return versus sitting idle. And I think it's important to note that our long-term debt balance increased only $45 million when you compare September 30 to June 30, even while we invested $288 million of capital into AWG and SFC in the third quarter. And so we sit today at only around 2 times leveraged on an EBITDA basis -- on a gross EBITDA basis and we've got plenty of capital availability. We've got $450 million of revolver. And if you think about the last three years, we have averaged about $335 million of free cash flow. And we've got $240 million still sitting on our balance sheet. So as we think about our ability in the next three years to deploy $1 billion of capital, I feel very comfortable that we are able to do that. As I mentioned before, we have divested three product lines in 2016. Two of those happened in the third quarter and one just at the beginning of the fourth quarter. And this is really an emphasis around optimizing our portfolio. We have talked a little bit about this in the future. These are not big businesses, nor do we expect to divest large chunks of business. But we do want to always think about positioning our product portfolio as we go forward. I think it's important to note if you take the acquisitions that we've done and the small divestitures that we've done, I want you to think about the impact that we expect going forward into 2017. The bottom line is that we expect about $0.25 of incremental earnings in 2017 from the combination of our acquisitions minus the small impacted divestitures. So, again, $0.25 of incremental impact in 2017 compared to 2016. All right. With that, let's move to Slide 4, and we will start to talk about the results and then I will get into the segments. So, in the third quarter, we had orders were up $530 million -- or, excuse me, $530 million, up 9% -- 2% organically. And, again, that was the first improvement we have seen since the first quarter of 2015. Revenue was also $530 million. That was up 5%, but down 2% organically. And then operating margin for the quarter was at 20.5%. However, as I mentioned before, it was at 20.9% when you think about the net loss on the divestitures. And that was down 60 basis points year-over-year, but it was due to a 90-basis-points of pressure from the fair value inventory step-up that I walked you through earlier. Cash flow again was a great story -- $125 million of cash from operations, $114 million of free cash flow. That was 163% of net income and that was up $9 million, or 9%, from last year. Net income was $70 million. That delivered GAAP EPS of $0.91. If you take into account the loss in the divestitures, adjusted EPS was $0.92 and again, up $0.03 or up 3% from last year. All right. As I mentioned at my opening, I want to give you some color and some detail around the puts and takes of the quarter because I know there was a lot out there. And I think it's important to be able to link back to our guidance. We had guided adjusted EPS of $0.92 -- excuse me, $0.90 to $0.92. If you take the high-end of our guidance, here is the puts and takes that you should consider. We had $0.02 of pressure from the SFC acquisition. That was $0.03 of fair value inventory step-up offset by $0.01 of goodness from operations. We had $0.03 of pressure from the additional tax expense that I mentioned from our higher tax rate. We had $0.02 of favorability from FX. And we had a $0.03 -- overall, we had a $0.03 operational beat. So a way to look at this from a clean perspective on the operating power of the business in the quarter is we had a $0.95 operating quarter and we improved operating margins on an apples-for-apples basis. So as you think about what we delivered for the quarter, that is the clean view of what we delivered for the quarter. Okay, let's turn now to the segment discussions. I'm on Slide 6, and let's start with fluid metering. In the quarter, orders decreased 1% and organic sales were flat. Operating margin increased 340 basis points. That was driven primarily by the fair value inventory step-up that we had last year when we bought Alpha and that was a $2.5 million impact in the third quarter of last year. Our energy markets, I have already talked about generally. A little bit more detail. Aviation remains good for us. Obviously, the low fuel price and what we're doing to develop channels is helping us improve that market, but certainly being offset by what we're seeing in the mobile markets and in LPG, which remains challenged. Water has been a good story for us. The municipal markets remain solid, especially around water services. Industrial, I talked about quite a bit already. We are seeing sequential stability. Day rates are holding. I think that the biggest thing that we are seeing is that is a negative is we have seen projects -- not big projects because, as you know, we typically are not involved in big projects. But whether it is in FMT or the industrial aspects of HST, we have seen projects pushed out and delayed and/or canceled. And that is putting some pressure on the forward-looking point of view in terms of sales in the fourth quarter of this year. Ag, as I said, it still remains soft, but we have seen some positive movement here in the fourth quarter. Again, while we like the sustained improvement, we are certainly not ready to call it a significant turn. And so I think we're going to see a little bit better results than we've seen here in the past, but -- and we have hit a bottom, but I don't think it's too early to call for a major upturn. With that, let's turn to Slide 7, and we will talk about health and science. As I mentioned before, the life sciences and the scientific markets remain positive. These are businesses that have been on a nice growth trajectory here for quite some time and we're excited about where we sit in the marketplace. That has been offset by the industrial-facing portions of that segment. So about half of HST is traditionally scientific and life science related, and about half has an industrial aspect to it. And so we are seeing the offsets of the strength and the weakness in those markets. We did see 4% organic order growth in HST in the quarter. We did have organic sales that were down 1%. Operating margin decreased 140 basis points really from everything I've talked about with the fair value inventory step-up with SFC. In scientific fluidics, again, continues to be strong. The major end-markets are doing well and exceeding expectations. The three markets of analytical instrumentation, bio and IVD have all delivered at or above our expectations, and we expect that to remain throughout this year and continue to have a good story into next year. Ceiling solutions -- the scientific part of that that is going into semiconductor is doing well. The part that is in oil and gas obviously has been challenged. And we love what SFC brings to this part of our business. Industrial side, I already mentioned the weakness that's been there. We did see some weakness specifically around our industrial-facing businesses in HST, our gas, our micro pump business and the industrial parts of material process. And so we are keeping a close eye on those things going forward. And then finally, in MPT, our material process business, the pharma story continues to be good. But the longer-cycle CapEx has seen some pressure, as I mentioned before. All right. I'm on our final segment; I'm on Slide 8, and that's diversified. Organic orders increased 4% in the quarter, but it was down 6% in organic sales. Margins were down 750 basis points. They are exactly what we expected to happen. You had the impact of the step up from AWG and you also had the mixed impact that we would expect from new businesses coming in that have more amortization and bring down the overall portfolio mix. Going forward, we think an op margin in the 25% range is where we will sit today, but you should expect us to improve that over time as we bring AWG and Akron and those margins forward. We have talked about a 500 basis point improvement over time and there's no reason to believe that that won't happen. Our integration is going -- on both of those are just going well and we're happy with the progress. In terms of dispensing, it's been a fantastic story. The business continues to outperform. X-Smart has been a huge winner for us in this business. We are executing well in all three major regions and we expect that to be a good news story going forward. In fire and rescue, obviously the big news is bringing Akron and AWG into that portfolio, driving the synergies in the business. We are seeing some nice improvements already. Our integration is going well. We did here in early in the fourth quarter announce internally that we are doing some restructuring around facility consolidation and driving the benefits of this business. So you will see a restructuring charge in the fourth quarter, and we are doing exactly what we said we would do. In terms of Band-It, we are seeing strength in transportation. That business offset by weakness in oil and gas are really the same headwinds we've seen in the past. But they have just done, once again, a terrific job on profit execution, focusing on niche markets where they can go get some growth and we really like this business for the long-term. All right. I am on our final slide, I'm on Slide 9, and I want to talk about the fourth quarter and full-year guidance. So, in the fourth quarter, we estimate EPS to be in the range of $0.92 to $0.94. That allows us to maintain the midpoint of our guidance and for the year, $3.72 to $3.74 despite the headwinds that we've talked about. So, there has been a little bit of confusion about, again, the underlying operating earnings, so let me walk you through that a little bit. So we're guiding $0.92 to $0.94 of adjusted EPS. That's going to include about $0.02 of pressure from the SFC acquisition. So that's -- when we think about that, you are going to have some incremental step-up, and then, you're going to have the operating impact. So we're going to get about $0.03 of operating goodness from SFC in the quarter, but it's going to be offset by $0.05 of inventory step-up. So there's going to be $0.02 negative. And we're going to get another -- approximately $0.01 of pressure from the divestitures. So, again, while we're guiding $0.92 to $0.94, the operating -- underlying operating capability is more like $0.95 to $0.97. And you can see how that impacts the quarter and, again, what that looks like for real operating capability for the year. A few more modeling items. We expect organic revenue growth of approximately 1% in the quarter. Operating margins will be 19.5%, but, again, that includes the $5.2 million of step-up. So we're going to have a nice, strong operating profit margin on an ongoing basis as we think about the fourth quarter and exit rate into the year. You should expect the tax rate to be back to its 27% rate, so not at the 29.6% that you saw this quarter. All right. For the full year, we expect organic revenue to be down 1% and adjusted operating margin to come in at about 20.5%. So, really outstanding profit margin given all the things that we have discussed. We expect full-year CapEx to come in at $40 million, free cash flow to be about 120% of net income. And in total, we will reduce our share count by about 1% for the year, given what we have already executed in the year. As always, as we think about our guidance, we don't include anything from future acquisitions or divestitures, any charges related to pension settlements or any costs related to restructuring actions. So with that, let me turn it over to the operator, and we will open it up for questions. Thank you.