Earnings Labs

IDACORP, Inc. (IDA)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Sun, Nov 2, 2014

$145.34

-0.28%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, and welcome everyone to IDACORP’s Third Quarter 2014 Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded and webcast live. A complete replay will be available from the end of the day for a period of 12 months on the Company’s website at www.idacorpinc.com. (Operator Instructions). At this time, I would like to turn the call over to the Director of Investor Relations, Mr. Lawrence Spencer. Please go ahead, sir.

Lawrence Spencer

Management

Thank you and good afternoon everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2014 earnings release conference call. We issued our earnings release before the markets opened today and that document, along with our SEC Form 10-Q, is now posted to our website at www.idacorpinc.com. We will be using a few slides to supplement today’s call, and these are also located on our website. We will refer to specific slide numbers as we work our way through today’s presentation. On slide 2, we show the presenters on today’s call. Darrel Anderson, IDACORP’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Keen, IDACORP’s Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. We also have other individuals available to help answer your questions during the Q&A period. Before turning the presentation over to Steve, I’ll cover our Safe Harbor statement which is on slide 3. Our presentation today contains forward-looking statements. While these forward-looking statements represent our current judgment or opinion of what the future holds, these statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors and events that could cause future results to differ materially from those included in forward-looking statements can be found on slide 3 and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which we encourage you to review. On slide 4, we present our quarterly and year-to-date financial results. IDACORP’s third quarter 2014 earnings per share were $1.73, an increase of $0.27 per share from last year’s third quarter. For the first nine months of 2014 earnings per share were $3.16, $0.07 more than last year’s comparable period. Steve will discuss these results in greater detail and review our key operating metrics.

Steve Keen

Management

Thanks, Larry, and good afternoon, everyone. Today we’ll discuss the reconciliation of earnings from third quarter 2013 to third quarter 2014, our cash flow and liquidity positions, changes to the 2014 key operating and financial metrics and the impact of our current Idaho Regulatory Settlement stipulation. At the backdrop, 2014 has benefited from slightly above normal weather impact this summer. However, in comparison to 2013, the current year has been more moderate. Last year benefitted from increased heating and cooling degree days throughout the year at record levels compared to the previous 10 years. Thus far 2014 has experienced closer to normal weather conditions with slightly above normal weather impacts in the third quarter. On slide 5 we presented the reconciliation of earnings from third quarter 2013 to third quarter 2014. Net income increased by $13.8 million in large part due to lower income tax expense resulting from a tax method change that I will discuss in a moment, overall Idaho Power Operating income declined by $10.6 million quarter-over-quarter. Lower overall usage in the residential and irrigation customer classes due to milder weather and precipitation led to an $8.3 million decline in operating income. While increased sales from customer growth benefitted operating income by $3 million partially offsetting the weather related impact. Operating expenses were higher by nearly $4 million due to greater depreciation, increased property taxes and normal payroll and benefit increases. Increased revenue sharing also reduced our operating income line by $1.5 million as we now anticipate sharing benefits with our Idaho customers based on our full year projections. For current year impact it’s important to know we recorded a $4.9 million provision against revenues for the impact of sharing through the first nine months of 2014. As I mentioned earlier the $15.7 million decrease in income tax…

Darrel Anderson

Management

Thanks, Steve and good afternoon everyone. I’m going to take a few minutes to update you on some regulatory and operational highlights from the quarter. Through our updated economic information and close with a look at temperature and precipitation outlooks. On a regulatory front, the Idaho public utilities commission recently approved a proposed settlement to extend Idaho power December 2011 Idaho’s settlement stipulation for upto five years. As shown on slide 8, the new settlement stipulation extends the terms of the existing Idaho revenue sharing ADITC mechanism with some modification for the period from 2015 to 2019 or until the company amortizes $45 million in additional ADITC. During those years the company may amortize up to $25 million in additional ADITC in a single year to help achieve a 9.5% return on year-end equity in the Idaho jurisdiction for that year. Under the new agreement the customer share of earnings between a 10% and a 10.5% Idaho return on equity increases from 50% to 75%. Also, customers will receive a direct rate credit for 50% of earnings above a 10.5% Idaho return on equity with 25% of earnings applied as an offset to the pension regulatory asset balancing account. As we share with you on our second quarter call, Idaho Power began work on the 2015 integrated resource plan or IRP in August. One of the first tasks to complete was to update the load forecast assumptions for the next 20 years. Based on that update, Idaho Power expects the 2015 IRP to reflect a slight increase in the average and peak load growth rates from those in the 2013 IRP. The average loan growth moves up from 1.1% in the 2013 IRP to 1.2% in the 2015 IRP. And the peak load growth moved from 1.4% in the 2013…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Ashar Khan from Visium.

Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. How are you doing Darrel, congratulations?

Darrel Anderson

Management

Hi, Ashar, Ashar, how are you doing?

Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management

Analyst

Pretty good, pretty good. Very, very successful year to-date for you and the team.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Thank you.

Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management

Analyst

Can I just, Darrel, if I was trying to do, right, cash flow is coming up really well this year, right, based on what you're showing.

Darrel Anderson

Management

We think, it has shown improvement from a year ago, that’s correct.

Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management

Analyst

If we can kind of mint money at the same rate as we are doing this year. Is my math correct, we really don't need equity at all over the next couple of years, because our equity ratio is pretty damn good? I was just looking at the income statement on the Q. We are at 53% right now. So, is my reflection pretty accurate, really? We don't need equity unless the weather bombards or something really bad happens, which doesn't seem like foreseen because you're increasing the load forecast and peak load and everything?

Steve Keen

Management

Sure, this is Steve. I would agree, I don’t believe there’s a need for equity this year and we’ve stated that. As for further out, we have not make a statement with regard to feature equity, but we have made the statement that given our ratio that you’ve recited them, we certainly have the ability to go to the debt side of the world first without causing any issues with our ratios and that would especially in the world where debt is fairly inexpensive that would seem to be choice number one. I would say on the cash flow there is an ebb and flow due to our mechanisms and how we collect under the PCA that can sometimes mislead a bit. It isn’t necessarily all sustainable year in, year out, so -- and I believe we’re in an upswing right now collecting some of what we were behind on from prior years. And that will turn, will head back.

Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management

Analyst

And then if I can just follow-up to something which you said in your commentary that you said some of the tax benefits are going to be repeatable next year as well if I understood correctly in the commentary. Could you give us some kind of sense that how much is -- could be repeatable into next as well?

Darrel Anderson

Management

Well, that’s sure, I gave a reference if you look at our note 2, its page 18 in the Q that we just put out. We’re not really giving a full year projection, but through the three – the nine months thus far. So through third quarter we highlight that we are booking at a rate of $19 million so 61] versus last year’s of [16,129], so roughly $3 million ahead of last year, and that’s not a completely annualized number, but it will -- that number –if things stay the same will be larger at the end of the year just because we’ll have fourth quarter booked. What we intend to do is watch this much closer. We’ve actually accelerated some of the work we’re doing around repairs because as it’s gotten bigger, it has a more significant impact and we plan to learn more about the 14 years as we move through the remainder of the months. Our construction cycle is such that we build the lot during summer and those -- close to plant over the fall and into the winter. So, we will be looking at that very closely and it could be that there is some change to that by the end of the year. But what I pointed to others to this in the past we’ve typically only put this schedule in the annual report. And we broke the capitalized repairs out separately in our Q and probably we’ll do that if its stays at this level would be an ongoing expectation, so that we can give people an idea of any movement and impact up or down, as they could see that from our historical results.

Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management

Analyst

Okay. But based on the expenditures that you forecast for next year and what you’re trying to do, we should expect this to keep on being an ongoing stuff for at least next year. Is that fair to say?

Darrel Anderson

Management

We do believe that clarification that came from Treasury will give us a greater repairs reduction than we’ve had in the past. a little hesitant to say exactly what that will. We obviously had the little more significant improvement that we’re booking this year if you look at the amount, the $11 million that was trued up in 2013. But it is quite dependent on the type of work that gets done each and there were some large work orders that contributed to that.

Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management

Analyst

Okay. Thank you so much. I have another question but I’ll get back in the queue.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Thanks Ashar.

Steve Keen

Management

Thanks Ashar.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Paul Ridzon from KeyBanc. Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc: Good afternoon.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Hi, Paul.

Steve Keen

Management

Good afternoon Paul. Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc: Could you -- just an update on the latest timing expectations around Boardman-Hemingway?

Darrel Anderson

Management

Sure. Paul, this is Darrel. Because right now, probably the next biggest milestones that’s coming up right now is we are looking for a draft EIS that is projected to come out by the end of this year, that’s the current time frame as we sits today, to get the draft DIS out. And so, what we’re saying right now that we would not anticipate and service date on that project until at least 2020. Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc: And then just back to the repairs deduction. Has that $3 million benefit year-over-year been already reflected in earnings?

Steven Keen

Analyst

The part that we booked through the third quarter has, yes. Paul Ridzon – KeyBanc: Okay. Thank you.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Thanks, Paul.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Brian Russo from Ladenburg Thalmann.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Hi, Brian.

Steve Keen

Management

Hi, Brian.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

I'm just curious, the ADITCs can support 9.5% floor, but you can -- I'm wondering in a normalized year with cost controls and the positive load growth, and the low tax rate, is it possible to earn, say, 10%?

Darrel Anderson

Management

Well, I think Brian; I’ll start first of all, as we are projecting for this year based on what these comments as it relates to sharing. We are projected to be above 10% this year. And so, that puts us into the 50-50 sharing mode as we did here today. So, based on what we’re seeing this year, we do project to be above 10%. Of course, part of that is supported by the tax method change that Steve referred to earlier, which did add some tax benefits which is what have pushes us into recognizing the $4.9 million of sharing that we have recognized. So, there is the component of that. But that would be the amount above, if you think above 10% where we at today. So even if you factored in the tax benefits which still be pushing that number.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

According to my calculation, it looks like the midpoint to the new guidance puts you in the 10% to 10.5% sharing band; is that accurate?

Steve Keen

Management

Yeah, currently we’re sharing. Yes, we’re above 10% at that range.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

And let me ask a different question. In your original 2014 guidance, what were kind of the ROE kind of bookends or what was the earned ROE at the midpoint?

Steve Keen

Management

Brian, on that Brian I would just say, we’ve opened up each year for the last several years indicating there were some possibility that we would get -- that we would have a need for tax credits, and that’s been less than $5 million I think each. So that tells you that some part of that band is in a range where we’re very close to the 9.5% line and dipping into the tax credits in order to get that number. So, we have been more in that range when you’re planning on the normalized basis and looking ahead. Last year is the year where weather was the item that’s stepped in and really made the difference between starting at that level and ending at a much higher level again obviously backup of 10% and I think we – memory serves me right, we got above the 10.5% last year. So, it’s more of those – the things that vary off of you just normalized, look at things that take you up into those higher ranges.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

Okay. And looks like your year to-date 2014 tax rate is about 17.6% as indicated in the Q?

Steve Keen

Management

Correct.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

And I think in the past, you guys have mentioned that your tax rate will start creeping up in subsequent years. Any help or assistance on what your tax rate might look like post-2014?

Steve Keen

Management

Brian, Darrel made a comment last quarter, we’ll go back to that where he indicated he --on a go forward we thought tax rates were in and around the mid 20s. These numbers that are there for this quarter obviously are slightly low because there was a very pretty large discrete item that got booked all in this quarter and that’s giving us a lower rate. But I think going back to what Darrel said in that second quarter call. I think that mid 20s is the good place to plan for us as a normal -- when things are more in normal basis. And this again, this repairs item is a slight tweak upward that -- but I think that’s a good general range to use somewhere in and around mid 20s.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

So like a mid-20%, but then should we adjust it a little bit lower for what seems like an ongoing $3 million or so tax benefit?

Darrel Anderson

Management

You know, possibly I don’t know that that moves the dial very much, to be truthful, Brian. And the thing you have watch is take a 2013 where our rates -- our income because of weather and that’s being quite a bit larger than we had planned. The items that are keeping that rate low are the flow through items. They don’t fluctuate so much based on whether revenues are up or down. So what you have this kind of a fixed deduction working against the variable revenue. And so the rate is a little -- it can move. It’s not just a flat rate regardless to where you. So you have to watch what’s driving the rate up and down.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Thanks, Brian.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sarah Akers from Wells Fargo.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst

Hey, good afternoon.

Steve Keen

Management

Hi, Sarah.

Analyst

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo Securities So, I know the IRP filing isn't until next year, but based on your initial work, are you seeing a potential need for gas capacity ahead of Boardman to Hemingway?

Darrel Anderson

Management

Sarah, this is Darrel. I think right now it’s really too early to kind of say anything, because they are just right in the middle of looking at various alternatives, because couple of things are come into play and one of the big ones probably is 11A-D. And what impact that could have between now and 2020 depending on what we might be required to do there that could cause a change and what happens we will be running a scenario – 11A-D scenario is part of our IRP process this go round. So, I can’t tell you, I mean, there maybe a resource required, but I don’t know until we get to the process.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst

Got it. And then it’s separate…

Darrel Anderson

Management

And it’s still pretty early is the thing. So there’s going to lot happen over this winter and in the early spring.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst

Sure. And then what are your latest thoughts on the strategy for getting recovery of Jim Bridger SCRs?

Darrel Anderson

Management

That’s a great question. And I think first of all with the extension of the ADITC first of all. So that with the extension of that going up for five years, that in essence runs into that potential period where we would consider a single item rate case possible. But we would have to look at all of the factors that go into, all the other things that are going on and how far -- how long its been since our last general, which again is 2012. Would have to all go – all those things that we taken into account to determine if that’s the right strategy to go in on a one-off, one-off special rate case for that – for those expenditures.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo Securities

Analyst

Got it. Thanks a lot.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Thanks, Sarah.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question is a follow-up from the line of Ashar Khan from Visium

Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management

Analyst

I just wanted to go over -- I was just looking over your book value at September 30, kind of like for Idaho Power Company, something over $36 or so. So -- and I was also looking a…

Steve Keen

Management

$36.12 plus or minus.

Ashar Khan - Visium Asset Management

Analyst

That is correct. And then I was looking at the change over the last 12 months or nine months, let's say nine months figure in the Q and it's nearly like $1.80 or so. So if one takes $1.80 and multiplies it within nine and three quarters, which is I guess the midpoint of the 9.5 and the 10, it comes to something like $0.18 or so. So is it fair to say we are, with this, of course this new mechanism now approved and everything that that is probably the growth rate that one should expect assuming of course we don't issue any equity, which I hope we don't, of at least growth rate of about $0.17 or $0.18 every year as the natural progression?

Darrel Anderson

Management

Ashar I’m trying to follow your calculation, I think I follow you but I’m not 100% sure. What I would tell you is arguably as you know with our mechanism that’s in place today with the ADITC which is based on year-end Idaho jurisdictionalized equity. And so, if you can look at that, you can look at what you estimate the change in that year-end equity is, and that is one way you can go about anticipating what growth rate could look like. So I’m not 100% sure which way you’re going. But if you focused on the year-end equity and make some assumes for what that Idaho jurisdictional component is that can give you -- that should give you some range of what the potential is for growth and earnings. Ashar Khan – Visium Asset Management: Okay.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Under the ADITC. Ashar Khan – Visium Asset Management: Okay. Another way to ask it, have you -- you haven't given out, Darrel, a growth rate for the Company, right? Is that correct?

Darrel Anderson

Management

That’s correct. That’s correct. Ashar Khan – Visium Asset Management: Okay. But you have been clipping one normalized everything. It's been 5% is a pretty good number for you guys; is that fair on a normalized basis?

Darrel Anderson

Management

If you look at over the last six or seven years, I think that number Steve is…

Steve Keen

Management

It’s in that range.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Yes. It’s in that range.

Steve Keen

Management

Its will be a little better than that but it’s in that range. Ashar Khan – Visium Asset Management: Okay.

Steve Keen

Management

We actually have a slide we been debating brining down to EEI with this, that will be really historical look back. It’s all data you guys have today. But looking at what are opening guidance has done each year over a number of years are actual do present an interesting look and it’s mainly because of the mechanism. When you get to the fourth at the bottom side and then as you have a good year, for instance, this year, and you run into the top, it’s like there’s a governor on each side and in this kind of band you in there. But -- and we’ve done a lot of talking about our actual results that are might to good to actually at how we open guidance and what has happened there. But on a historic basis that has been in and around the number you’re talking about. Ashar Khan – Visium Asset Management: Okay. That’s great. I really appreciate it. Thank you so much.

Darrel Anderson

Management

Thank you, Ashar. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question is a follow-up from the of Paul Ridzon from KeyBanc Paul Ridzon - KeyBanc Thank you. My question was answered. Darrel Anderson Thanks Paul.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). And this concludes our question-and-answer session for today. Mr. Keen, I’ll turn the conference back to you.

Steve Keen

Management

Thank you all for participating on our call this afternoon and your continued interest in our company. We hope to see many of you soon at the EEI Financial Conference in Dallas. Thanks again. Good bye. Thanks operator.

Operator

Operator

That concludes today’s conference. Thank you for your participation.