Vivek Jain
Analyst · KeyBanc. Your line is now open
Thanks, John. Good afternoon, everybody. The first quarter of 2018 marked us owning Hospira Infusion Systems for a full year, and we are balancing our time between active customer dialogues to improve our commercial execution and being deeply in the midst of an integration to create a single unified company. We continue to execute well through a large volume activity, and operationally, we make progress every day on integrating Hospira Infusion Systems. Our last call was only short eight weeks ago and not that much is really new with the businesses. But on this call we did want to comment on the sequential changes in Q1 2018 from Q4 of 2017 and our current thinking around business performance trends, provide the status on our checklist of items we outlined in our January investor presentation in terms of what to expect in 2018 along with the integration work, explain our financial expectations for the near-term in 2018 and when we will affirm or revise our view of the year; and lastly, provide some thoughts on the longer term value creation at a high level from both an income statement and balance sheet perspective as the margin drivers become more evident. The short story in Q1 was very straightforward income statement results that were almost exactly in line with the previous quarter as highlighted on the last call and a balance sheet at the end of the quarter that needs a little explaining. We finished the quarter with approximately $354 million in adjusted revenue, adjusted EBITDA came in at approximately $73 million, and adjusted EPS came in at $2.26, and we finished the quarter with net cash of $279 million on our balance sheet. Pro forma revenue growth was 8% quarter-over-quarter, but please remember, we had easier comps as late 2016 and early 2017 was a tough period for Hospira. We also did have a small TSA reversal which made adjusted EBITDA and EPS look a little better than Q4. I will address the balance sheet change momentarily after we talk about the businesses integration. Lastly, the other category has essentially gone away, meaning the management results I refer to should finally match all the reported values, excluding the IV Solutions contract manufacturing. Turning to the individual segments, and please use Slide 3 in the posted deck for the base comparisons. Let’s start with what we expect to be our largest business over time, Infusion Consumables. We’ve been running this as a single segment for a number of quarters now and a year has lapsed, so we will stop referring to any legacy ICU or legacy Hospira sales, it’s all one segment and we own all of it. Infusion Consumables had revenues of $120 million in Q1 2018, which imply 10% growth year-over-year. Oncology continued to be strong with over 20% growth in the category and at least for Q1 U.S. growth outperformed the international growth for the balance of the segment. This is a segment where we are the most advantaged now as a joint entity. We are hard at work on rationalizing the product portfolio and bringing together all the operational efficiencies of the combination. Commercially, we have all the pieces, all the technology and all the scale to compete globally and should be able to offer more value to the customer. On the last call, we stated we believe this segment could grow mid-single digits in 2018, which we sanity checked by annualizing our Q4 2017 exit run rate. Today with another two months under our belt, we believe this segment could grow high-single digits in 2018. Second segment to discuss was our largest segment in Q1, Infusion Solutions. This segment reported approximately $126 million in revenues, equaling 11% year-over-year growth, which was slightly higher than we expected due to the unique temporary industry issues that have been widely reported in the press, and therefore, I don’t need to detail it on this call. We have been trying to operate with transparency to customers by illustrating the generic drug-like regulatory framework, high capital expenditures and value in a healthy supply side situation to a business that was a historical price anomaly. From a value perspective, we have sacrificed short-term profits for longer-term supply contracts, which we believe offers us more NPV as it makes us a more competitive supplier over time. Practically speaking, that means you should not assume that 2018 just annualizes at the Q1 2018 or the Q4 2017 run rate. We’ve been very focused on the longer-term, but we want to be clear, verbatim from the first presentation on the transaction we are going to make economically rational decisions and not sell products at a loss. In the medium-term of 2018, we see the run rate of this business more in line somewhere between Q2 and Q3 2017 levels, i.e., before the market shortage occurred and appropriately corrected for us getting more contracted volume at a less trading oriented price. If we pick the midpoint of the range of Q2 and Q3 2017, and annualized that, it would imply a flattish business in 2018, but with more business under long-term contract. There are two important value drivers in this segment to note. The first, we just talked about, more predictable revenue with better certainty and the ability to participate in market and contractual growth. But the second, which is equally important, is to optimize our production assets. At the outset of the acquisition of Hospira, we believe that we have lost a substantial amount of contracted business and a significant production volume, and significant production line in a fixed cost manufacturing environment. The recent events combined with a logical integrated value proposition have enabled us to improve the amount of business we have under our long-term contract and will allow us to fill up the factory we acquired in Austin with more volume. We’ve been heavily investing as reflected in our CapEx to increase our own domestic capacity, which can give us the option to increase output when combined with our five-year agreement with Pfizer Rocky Mount or to move away from Rocky Mount – Pfizer Rocky Mount if market conditions change. We believe that was one of the attractive aspects of the structure we laid out originally with Pfizer and allows us to keep maximum flexibility. Lastly, we continue to be vigilant here on quality even as Hospira and Pfizer invested significant resources as it is mandatory to be in this business. To finish the big three, let’s talk about Infusion Systems, which is the business of selling pumps, dedicated sets and software, which is important because it brings a lot of recurring revenues. This segment did $93 million in revenue and was flat year-over-year. The flattening of this quarter was not yet something we did competitively, rather just a few specific customers that were known losses ordering the disposable they needed in advance to convert away from us. The International business is holding together reasonably well and our view is unchanged from the previous call with the segment continuing to have declines through the middle of 2018 with the lowest level installed base in the last 10 years. To finish the discussion on the segments, since we acquired Hospira, we’ve been actively calling on customers and trying to illustrate the value we can add to the system and the value to the system in having us as a healthy participant. While it is a long journey, we do believe this message is resonating. Feedback on the products continues to be solid. The products are necessary for the system and have been reliable for many years. When we started the transaction with our defensive mindset for doing it, we looked at the business we saw – and we saw roughly 50% of the total business Infusion Consumables and the international portion of Infusion Systems where we thought then we had a good offering and the right to win. Today, almost halfway to 2018, we’ve seen a somewhat better picture where we believe we have a right to win most of the portfolio, with really the domestic portion of our Infusion Systems segment as a key challenged area and we’re working hard to address that business. Okay, we’re already into May, so we want to give an update on our checklist of items we outlined in our January investor presentation, in terms of what to expect in 2018 which is attached on Slide 4. This will help us explain some of the balance sheet changes and the integration status. On the top of the page, under the green light items, we have resolved much of the transactional accounting. All the intercompany profits are being captured and the only gross margin adjustments are related to the Pfizer contract manufacturing. I did want to spend a few minutes on the second point, which was clean up of certain legacy Hospira contracts. When we bought Hospira, we knew there was a decent list, like more than five but less than 10 of contractual business deals that had to be restructured or redefined. We have no work our way through most of these. The two largest agreements were related to the infusion pump and consumables businesses, respectively. We inherited a pump development relationship with a company named Q Core and that relationship provided for exclusive distribution of Q Core products by Hospira in exchange for 10 years of committed purchases from Q Core that would’ve exceeded $100 million as well as numerous R&D milestone payments and manufacturing rights exchanges. In Q1, we were able to modify our relationship to eliminate all future obligations while continuing to have certain nonexclusive distribution rights for existing products in exchange for a $35 million payment to Q Core and very minor continuing payments over the next three years. This was not the easiest of situations as both parties were very passionate and committed to their interest and discussion was ongoing for quite a while. So we’re happy to have reached resolution and ICU and Q Core are committed to ensuring a positive customer experience. The settlement reduces our cash estimate for the end of the year by $30 million to $35 million. At the time of the original $400 million estimate, we were not sure it would be resolved and it would’ve been premature to make a public estimate. The second contract was with a company called NP Medical for some disposable items. We’ve been able to find alternative value in these products and the other items they produce from this group. And we look forward to working with them. We think both situations resulted with the best possible outcomes. Continuing down this list, we still expect integration spend to peak, mid-year and then, a decrease, which is incorporated now into our $370 million or so cash estimate. On the yellow light items, let me start with the second and third points. So a lot of the complexity of the separation is coming down. As we exit TSAs, we do have issues that arise. An example of this quarter is that both we and Pfizer were spending a disproportionate amount of time estimating cash collections to us and that subsequently truing up the calculations. We together decided to take a timeout from this process for a couple of weeks in Q1 and rather have Pfizer send us the actual cash collection and skip a bunch of the middle steps. As a result, we deferred a couple of weeks of cash collection and we expect this to come back sometime in Q3. This change, plus the Q Core resolution and the normal Q1 sales commissions or bonus payouts led to a decrease on our cash balance sheet, which we don’t like. We did have some sequential growth in SG&A. Some of that was extralegal cost to get these contracts cleaned up. Some of that was non-cash item with the portions also the duplicate cost we referenced that will stay likely through Q3. On the integration, a lot has happened since last call, and we are now in all-out execution mode. We have stabilized Canada to over 95% in our opinion, and have cut over almost all of Europe, Latin America, all distributor markets and will start Asia and Australia inside of 60 days from now. All of this leads up to the largest cutover, which is the main event, the cutover of our U.S. operations sometime in Q3. On the integration, philosophically, as the founder of ICU used to say, we’re trying to measure twice and cut once. These IT systems migrations are complex, filled with legacy issues and require a great caution. I’ve personally been burned in prior experiences, when these projects become more transformational than migrational and so we’re being very deliberate. We know a lot of companies that have more M&A experience than us don’t get into this much detail on integration and systems conversions because it spooks everyone. It’s not as exciting as revenue growth or synergies, but it is important that we explain what we are literally doing. This transaction was so unusual in that it was not like buying a business that came with IT systems or even people providing what we would call support functions. It was literally the acquisition of manufacturing plants, product lines and local commercial organizations that were run by disparate legacy systems. We’re actually uniting all of this onto a single integrated system. And let’s be clear, our customers don’t care about any of this unless it affects them negatively. But we care about it because it first offers us deep value in the form of operational improvements that can be realized over time; and two, it sort of super-sizes us for the ability to handle more on these platforms when we are through this integration. But the consequence from doing this, and practically we have no choice because that was the deal, is that it can be bumpy during these cutovers. We think, right now, it’s best to be cautious and plan that we will not be of these systems until the fourth quarter of 2018. Okay. To bring this all back to the topic of short-term results, how do we thinking about the medium term with 2018 and longer-term value creation. We expect Q2, which is almost halfway done from a profitability standpoint, to look a lot like the previous two quarters, maybe just a little less due to duplicative costs and excluding some of those TSA reversals. We expect consumables to increase sequentially and IV solutions to normalize back to guidance levels, and we expect those TSA exits to drive some savings in Q4 of 2018 as we previously have described. Given that, we recognize that our current annual guidance of $240 million to $260 million of EBITDA implies significant declines in the back half of 2018. We know – we will know a lot more by the time of our Q2 call and be right in the middle of our largest system cutovers. We also want to make sure we do not skimp on infrastructure investments that allow us to handle more. So those investors have been with us a long time. We’ll see the exact same annual behavior from us when we address the back half on our Q2 call. This year, it is extremely important to be cautious as we work through the U.S. integration in the summer right around the time of our Q2 call. Now with all that said, into the longer term of 2019, we continue to have a view that we can improve our profitability regardless of the revenue environment. We believe that the last two quarters have given us a look as to what the opportunity can be. Longer term, if we’ve made the assumption that the combined effect of the operational synergies and GSA savings, plus future margin improvements based on the integration, the new high-hanging fruit collectively, can offset the NPV choices we’ve made and the temporary revenue benefits we received in the last few quarters, then we’ll see the case for margin improvement without significant revenue growth assumptions. We have to execute well in 2018 to allow for these to be available and likely – and it will likely not be all a straight line in getting there. As always, what really matters to us for value creation in the longer-term outside of servicing our customers is real free cash generation. While adjusted EBITDA is a useful metric, given all the noise of the transaction, it’s important to get these real cash expenses of integration behind us and focus on the real free cash generation for the longer-term value creation. Q1 of 2018 was the first quarter in a long time that we did not add cash to our balance sheet, excluding M&A. We’re getting back to that right now, and believe we played the situations correctly. If we can have the strongest balance sheet possible at the end of 2018 with over $500 million of liquidity, which will be our cash on hand plus revolver, have an infrastructure as a company that can handle more and have continued margin improvement opportunities, our base business, with minimal revenue growth assumptions, we think we have a case for continued value creation. Our goals are just like our previous experiences, to first enhance margins and then improve overall growth. In the best case, we’ll have better execution to improve our top line performance over time, drive operational improvements and improve cash conversion and returns. In the worst case, we continue to fight headwinds in the top line, but we can still drive operational improvements and generate solid cash returns over time, relative to the capital we deployed due to the levers I just mentioned. And just like ICU historically, there are a number of continuing intrinsic value drivers, including high-quality or hard-to-reproduce production assets, sticky product categories and the opportunity for more cash generation. But what is different than our previous experience at ICU is the sheer size and scale of the work we have to do. It is very rare when the minnow swallows the whale. This is a complex corporate carve-out and has the aspects of a turnaround in certain of the business line, at the same time while being kind of a public LBO, just without any debt. We’ve been lucky on a few items, but it is about as challenging as any corporate project many of us have faced. We feel that we’ve been very transparent with investors on our plans over the last few years and cautious with our own expectation, and we want and need that mentality to continue, particularly through these system conversions, not to talk down or talk up the circumstance, just to be realistic on what we have ahead of us. As always, I’d like to close with things are moving fast. We’re trying to improve the company with urgency and we’re trying to take responsible actions and break some of the inertia that many companies in our position face. We may hit some bumps as we take these actions, but we will overcome them and emerge stronger. I really appreciate the effort of all combined company employees to adapt, move forward and focus on improving results. And our company appreciates the support we’ve received both from our customers and our shareholders. And with that, I’ll turn it over to Scott.