Stefan Borgas
Analyst · HSBC. Please go ahead
Thank you, Limor. And good morning, good afternoon, good evening, ladies and gentlemen around the world. We are joined here also for the last time by our outgoing chairman Nir Gilad. Nir, so happy to have you at the table even though it's very, very sad that it's the last time. Let me make a few comments to the quarter. And I'll start with slide number 3. In the deck that you have hopefully all been able to download or follow in the WebEx. Under the circumstances this has been an excellent quarter for ICL. I am saying under the circumstances because the commodity business which we have subsumized mostly in our essential minerals division continues to be under severe pressure. Prices in both potash and phosphate as well as volume pricing is in excellent business because our specialty solutions division has had 15% growth year-over-year and this we think at least in the order of magnitude is sustainable growth rate for the upcoming quarters as well. We have also despite the severe pressure in the commodity markets been able to deliver again three positive cash flow, our CFO since he has joined ICL more year and half ago has put big emphasis in cash flow delivery, the organization is starting to understand this everywhere. We can see it in working capital behavior. We can see it in CapEx. We can see it in maintenance. We can see it in the other balance sheet items. I think we owe very special thank you to Kobi on this one because this is truly a capability that ICL is now building to become a world class company. Slide 4, gives you a little bit more of visibility on the two different businesses. In Essential Minerals business the market environment continues to be very, very competitive. Potash volumes remained relatively low. We shipped little bit more than a million tons of potash. Mostly in the western world, Europe was quite satisfactory and also Brazil was okay. But of course nothing in China, almost nothing in China and India in the second quarter because of the contract negotiations. It seems to us now that after the contract have been signed in India first and then in China that there is a little bit of relief in the potash market, materials are flowing very nicely now, stocks are quite low in the supply chain all around the world. And we can also see positive pricing trends although it's early to make full judgment but in Brazil we can see $20- $30 improvement in the US. We can see $10-$20 improvement in Southeast Asia. We can see the same so it seems like this has relieved some of the pressure. On the phosphate side, there is no volume issue but there is continues pressure on prices, 30% to 40% lower prices depending on the product and depending on the regions. Initiated rethink by a reaction of the global market leader to the very strongly increased Chinese prices -- Chinese quantities, export quantities in 2014 and much more in 2015. As a result of this our joint venture in China also ran into difficulties. It made an operating profit loss in the second quarter. But that loss was almost entirely attributed to April, in May and June, the restructuring measures that we have introduced very aggressively at the beginning of this year when we saw the environment deteriorating and starting to grip. So that we expect no more losses in this operation in the second half of this year. In the Specialty Solutions, this is much more fun to talk about this business in ICL at this moment in time; we have very strong performance in the industrial products business unit which is the bromine and the phosphorus business. Higher volumes, lower raw material cost, efficiency gains from all the measures that we have done last year, new good contribution from new products. Much is going well in this business. We see good, stable, bromine prices throughout the rest of the year. Maybe one or the other increases here or there. In China, there was the expected summer downturn in the prices but by a much lesser extent than in previous years. And the trend has already turned now in recent week so nothing to worry about at least we think. So the phosphorus part of the flame retardants business is more difficult here, there is more of a competitive environment around the world due to again pressure from China. The specialty -- the advanced additives business unit, this is the downstream first phase that are going into the industrial market and our specialty minerals also had a very, very good quarter. The specialty minerals were very strong. Fire safety business was very strong and oil additives business also was very strong. Here very happy on how this works despite the fact that there is a quite a bit of price pressure in the commodity phosphate salts or a more commoditized phosphate salt, both in North America as well as in Mexico -- as well as in Europe. The Food Specialty business continues to have a very good growth trajectory. Unfortunately, margins are not yet moving up. Profit also increases but margins are not yet moving up because the growth of the top line and on the portfolio gets counterbalanced to a certain extent with price decline on the more commoditized phosphate salt. Similar effect and we see in advanced additives area. We think this has come to the bottom but we are not very sure when this will increase. So we are careful about the production on this part of the food business. But food business as a whole had a good quarter. Russia very strong, CIS very strong. The food growth trends new solutions, tailor made formulations, protein enrichment, wishes of customers, clean label, wishes of our customers, more natural, more simple, less processed food, non-allergic, all of these trends help our business and this is what driving it. Our Specialty Fertilizer business is the fourth business unit in the specialty solutions area had some light and shadow. It suffers of course under the dramatic down price decline in the commodities. This makes it much more difficult to sell specialties to farmers because the values add is smaller and it's tougher to prove that a more expensive product is adding value. So this leads to decline in prices in some regions. But the operational and the sale stability that we have in this business unit is quite amazing. There is some geographic expansion that starting to happen especially in China. But also their resilience in the home market is quite good wherever we have to specialty offering. If we translate this now into the balance of the company, you can see that we are now half specialty half commodities on the sale side. On the profit side, we already went too far. Our objective is to have 50% of our profits come from specialties by 2020. We are already at 64% this quarter. Quite frankly this is for wrong reasons because it's not for the expected long-term strength of the specialties business yet because we wanted to grow more. It is for the weakness of the commodities. So we like the numbers but we don't like the reasons behind. On the next slide number 6, you can see actually the value of our strategy. The red line on both sales and operating income shows the stabilizing effect of the ever growing specialty business in ICL to the entire franchise. And the blue line shows the commodity volatility that we have which is in the downturn right now. In my last slide today, we have summarized again our projections for both of the parts of ICL -- sorry for the specialty solutions business we expect this to continue to grow with an average CAGR of 5% to 10% per year over the course of the next five years and within above with higher growth and profitability of course because we are starting to get the lever effect of the SG&A structure that have adopt over the course of the last one or two years. And we get also here some benefits from new product portfolio which are higher margin and from efficiency measures which give us a little bit better operating margins. So overall our strategy is working. I am happy with the quarter and we are looking forward to a second half year which should have relatively similar pattern in the second quarter that you have seen. Maybe with the exception of phosphate in China which will look better but on potash the volume growth will come for sure that everybody expects. Most of it will be eaten up by lower pricing unless this careful trend that we are seeing now will continue and then of course we have some upside. We will be very happy to report upside. But in our internal expectations we expect flat essential minerals profitability and continued rise in specialty solutions profitability. Kobi please give us the details of the breakdown in the businesses.