Jeffrey C. Sprecher
Analyst · Sandler O'Neill
Thank you, Scott. That was a lot to digest. Today, I'd like to cover our energy and interest rate futures business, provide some thoughts on U.S. equity market structure and discuss the progress that we've made on integrating NYSE Euronext. Over the long term, trading and risk management activities continue to move on exchange and into clearing houses. While this trend was already underway and we began clearing energy swaps in 2002, it was only accelerated with the implementation of Dodd-Frank. With the near implementation taking place in Europe over the next year, the trend towards clearing is also playing out there. We're focused on meeting regulatory requirements and the demand for new products and capital efficiency. We're expanding our reach globally, most recently into Asia, to address the demand for market infrastructure. We believe that Asia will also implement financial reforms focused on enhancing risk management and supporting the development of regulated clearing houses. Ships in the global economy are driving demand, as the pan-Asian region moves to becoming the largest global consumer of commodities. With economic and regulatory change reshaping markets around the world, our geographic and product diversity across commodity and financial products, and our ability to evolve as markets change, position us very well for the long term. You can see the breadth of our energy markets on Slide 13, including the expansion activity through economic cycles and through regulatory change. Since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, our energy revenues have grown at a compound rate of 13% annually. And this is consistent with ICE futures Europe's 17 consecutive years of record volume. On the slide, you can see the strong base of revenue across the diversified mix of energy products, which are relied upon each day by global energy companies and consumers. While financial reform has had the effect of pushing some banks to exit their physical commodities operation, we continue to see a strong role for banks as they facilitate customer business in these markets. And consistent with our focus on commercial end-users, you can see in our Commitment of Trader reports that well over half of our open interest in energy is from commercial market participants. Moving forward to Slide 14, we've highlighted some of the trends underlying our global oil business. Brent crude volumes were softer in Q1 due to multiyear lows and price volatility with prices locked in a tight range. In addition, the former pricing curve for Brent was in contango for the first quarter, while the WTI market stayed in backwardation. Nevertheless, open interest grew at a healthy clip and stands at record levels, as you can see with the green light on the left. On the right side, you can see the over 80% compound annual growth rate and our suite of refined oil products. This demonstrates how the benchmark Brent contract has attracted customers who now trade a full range of refined oil products. Today, our oil contracts number over 400. In the second quarter, we expect to launch 64 new energy contracts, over 20 of which are oil products. I'll also point out, the contracts represented by the blue bars on the same chart, represent products where our market share has grown from 0 to over 13% in just a few years’ time. This represents meaningful capital efficiencies at the clearing level. Moving to Slide 15. You can see the trends on our global natural gas markets. While North American natural gas volumes have declined year-to-year during the past several quarters, average daily volume for the first quarter was 25% above the first quarter of 2010, and open interest has doubled and remained significantly above precrisis levels. This demonstrates solid growth in the user base and in demand for hedging. And while U.S. natural gas prices lack volatility in the last months, this is a solid business due to the increasingly important role that natural gas holds, both in North America and around the world. On the right side of the slide, you can see the robust growth in our natural gas contracts traded on ICE Futures Europe, particularly following our acquisition and subsequent launch of the ICE Endex business last year. Through ICE Endex, we now list the primary European gas benchmarks, and the efficiencies of this model are driving growth. I've long spoken about our view of the increasing globalization of natural gas products. And this quarter, you can see this trend in our results. As a result of the solid performance in the non-U.S. natural gas markets, ICE's total natural gas revenues actually increased 1% during the quarter, where European volume growth of 64% offset the double-digit decline in our North American volume. Turning to interest rates on the next few charts, starting on Slide 16. You can see the underlying trends in our Liffe interest rates complex. First, daily volumes have returned, and in some cases, exceeded precrisis levels. And this is despite a low interest rate environment impacting our benchmark short-term contract, the Euribor future. However, open interest across our European interest rate futures complex is up 21% from the start of this year. On Slide 17, you can see one of the primary drivers within the Liffe rates complex is the sterling futures contract, where daily volumes grew 30% in the first quarter and open interest over 80% from year end. This contract is a proxy for U.K. economic sentiment and expectations for the Bank of England's actions on interest rates. With economic indicators improving, the short sterling contract has been active. On Slide 18, you can see the diversity of our growing interest rate complex. Growth in our Gilt futures volumes reflect the rising demand for rate hedging, further out the yield curve, where we've grown volume and over -- interest over 2 years. Volume in the swap note contract, which was the first launched futures swap to futures interest rate product. And now in its 13th year, was up 32% over last year's first quarter, with open interest increasing double digits over the same period. Last month, we introduced the Ultra Long Gilt Futures contract, which has attracted solid volume growth and open interest since our launch. These products are not only performing well, but they'll be joined by 21 new European interest rate contracts that we're introducing this quarter. So you can see that we're very engaged in building out a leading European rates platform. In addition, our team is working to ensure a smooth transition of the Liffe market to the ICE futures platform by year end. We believe that this investment will create operational and capital efficiencies that will drive value for customers and for shareholders. Moving now to Slide 19. I want to note the strength of our listings business for 2 reasons: first, because The New York Stock Exchange continues to lead in the amount of capital raised, as well as in technology IPOs, as we move to the halfway point of 2014. But more importantly, I want to talk about the importance of a healthy market for our issuers. It's vital that we continue to attract companies to the public markets, because they trust the fairness and stability of these markets. The pie will grow for all if investor confidence in markets is strong. The U.S. capital markets are the deepest, most liquid markets in the world for capital raising. And they're a key source of competitiveness of our economy globally. Access to public capital fuels innovation and creates jobs for economies around the world. Issuers and investors need confidence that the markets are transparent and that they are fair. It's that trust and confidence that keeps the flywheel of capital flowing. In this regard, let me address a few ideas around how we can improve the structure in our equity market. For the past year, I've suggested that this market could be simplified and that the pendulum has swung too far on complexity. While a year ago, my comments were not widely supported within our industry, the current conversation has led to increasing support and an opportunity to dialogue in earnest on the important issues facing this industry. You can see on Slide 20, many of the developments that ICE brought to improve confidence in the commodity and derivative markets that we serve. It's important to note that this progress is a result of the extensive work with our customers and our regulators. And as we bring our experience into derivatives, we'll continue to work closely with customers and regulators to drive positive change in the equity markets that we serve. Many parties share responsibility for today's market model, including incumbent exchanges like The New York Stock Exchange. Most importantly, we, in the industry, must provide the leadership to respond to needed change. And we're encouraged by the SEC's work and recent comments acknowledging the need to address market complexity. Years ago, the market's reaction to a perceived lack of transparency and fairness was to create competition at the exchange level. Ultimately, this went further than most could have anticipated. And this has led to extreme fragmentation, with over 50 venues to trade the same lifted securities. While a national market system linking these venues together is a worthy goal, it has resulted in an overly complex structure with many unintended consequences. Historically, markets naturally formed up in a single venue to establish liquidity and the best price discovery. Today's fragmentation of such standardized markets is unnatural for the ultimate end-user and it tends to be promoted by those who seek to benefit from assets to better information. With extreme fragmentation, buyers and sellers have no choice but to seek to form a single price discovery stream by employing smart order routers, algorithms and high-frequency strategies. And to maintain liquidity, you've seen the convergence of market makers and high-frequency trading firms with very little means to distinguish meritorious activity from that, which can be disruptive. What I believe is being launched in the evolution of the equity market is that the essential form of competition that we should be improving is that between the buyers and sellers of securities, both of whom are seeking to discover the best price for themselves. This means that the concept of competition should not be focused exclusively on creating more exchange venues, whose propagation continues with no end in sight. There seems to be no justification, now that studies are showing that pricing benefits are being reversed, and where the public price discovery function for end-users is being weakened. It's certainly a positive fact that technology and automation has tightened bid offer spreads, but the fragmentation and instability of the market today has also increased its risk and complexity. In a Monday article in USA Today, it comments, "This week marks the fourth anniversary of the brutal flash crash that rocketed markets on May 6, 2010, and is a stark reminder of how little has changed." Our market structure might have created a better pie with lower exchange fees and tighter spreads, but it is a shrinking pie that fewer want to consume. Americans are seeking other investments, instead of providing the fuel to our listed companies. It's also a positive fact that technology and competition in the U.S. equity markets has dramatically reduced exchange fees and improved access. For example, a retail customer buying 100 shares of stock may pay $9.95 to an online broker, not $800 as in times past. Today, if that trade was routed to a U.S. regulated exchange, the revenue capture would average about $0.02. In other words, an amount that is insignificant to that total transaction. Only about $0.02 would go to an exchange on a $10 broker commission. Similarly, a large institutional fund manager buying 100 shares of stock today would pay their broker something like $1. The U.S. exchange capture is yet again about $0.02, similarly insignificant to this transaction; and so low, that it should not justify the existence of off exchange trading as a need to avoid excessive exchange fees, particularly where there's an absence of meaningful price or size improvement. And by definition, the avoidance of transacting on a regulated exchange is also the avoidance of regulatory oversight and the removal of price signals that contribute to the public price formation process. We've advocated for the regulatory elimination of maker-taker fees coupled with the reduction and equalization of access fees in the U.S. equity markets. This would expose the low exchange capture fees that I just mentioned, directly to all market participants. Maker-taker fees also create incentives for intermediaries to potentially place their own interest ahead of the obligation to customers. And I believe the vast majority of brokers are honest actors who want to place their customer's interests first, but they're being put in an increasingly untenable position with regard to best execution requirements. And in order to protect market participants for regulatory breaches and while availing themselves of maker-taker rebates, execution venues have further complicated markets by creating order types that play into maker-taker capture, such as the well-named "Hide don't slide," among others. The imbalance in maker-taker fees creates fee arbitrageurs that add to market volume, while simply trying to buy on one exchange and sell on another in risk-free trades, while not actually wanting to own stocks. Encouraging transient liquidity signals is potentially as risky as encouraging transient price signals. Because traders not only rely on price information, they also rely on volume information when making trading decisions. The SEC has already placed limits on exchange fees. And thus, we believe that these limits could be updated to eliminate maker-taker pricing, while equalizing exchange access fees at lower levels for all investors. The New York Stock Exchange had a significant opportunity to offer solutions that rebuild confidence and protect shareholder value. And we believe that we can start by unilaterally reducing the excessive complexity that exists today, such as the proliferation of order types. Therefore, the first step towards making our markets less complex, we will voluntarily reduce the number of order types at our U.S. equity exchanges. We've identified over 1 dozen existing order types that we plan to apply to the SEC for rule changes to eliminate. And beyond that, we will continue to evaluate our other order types to identify those that may not be providing the market with true utility. Too many of these order types were developed in an attempt to replicate dark pool trading or to segment the market to try to attract one type of investor over another type of investor. The SEC has recently completed a comprehensive audit of order types, and we believe that exchanges and dark pools should adopt a moratorium on creating any new types of orders. We had a spirited internal debate on whether we should unilaterally begin eliminating order types, and certainly, there were some who did not initially like this idea. You see, we have 1/2 a dozen-or-so more new order types that are in the works, and some of them have already been built into our matching engines and are ready to launch. These new order types are smart, they're innovative, and some may really put the hurt on our competition. However, I suspect that they will further fragment the U.S. equities market, which will ultimately hurt investors. My colleagues worry that our competition won't share our end user concerns and they'll continue to develop products that'll further fragment the market. If this is so, I reminded them that maybe we should be paying our competitors salaries because I believe they're setting themselves up for long-term failures. Today, the average order size on the 5 largest alternative trading venues has fallen to a little more than 200 shares, an amount that is near or, in some cases, below the size of regulated market order fills. As smart order routers are now slicing up orders into small digestible bites, today, there is very little difference between retail order fills and large institutional order fills, increasingly obsoleting the need for trading venues to segment our customers or segment their trading behaviors by offering differing order types or by even having different regulatory oversight. In light of a number of articles that I've recently seen, I want to also spend a moment to describe our market data offerings. Our U.S. equity exchanges produce and sell raw data feeds, which include every single quote and cancellation that is submitted to the matching engine. Pursuant to an agreement we have with the SEC, we make sure that our raw data feeds are not made available to customers any sooner than the data is made available to the national securities information processors, also known as SIPs. So in other words, it's a rule that everyone receive raw -- the raw data feed at the same time, including the SIPs. Now the major broker-dealers are co-located in our facilities and receive raw data feeds at the same time as latency-sensitive traders. And unlike other regulated markets where ICE operates that allow for direct access, broker-dealers are the sole access point for customer trade execution on U.S. equity exchanges. UNI's [ph] investors do not choose where our trades are routed to, and we're not allowed to access U.S. equity exchanges directly. Therefore, as long as a co-located broker-dealer's interests are aligned with its customers' interests, retail and institutional customers of major broker-dealers should see no speed advantage and no speed disadvantage in these markets. Now some had called for us to further slow down the raw data feeds to match the output of the SIPs, but this would likely have exactly the opposite impact that its proponents are trying to achieve. Recall that traders currently receive their trade confirmations from matching engines at their native speeds, and active traders who are constantly buying and selling small numbers of shares, see stocks move through various price levels by employing this trading strategy. If the raw data were delayed to match the output of the SIP, this would give active traders significantly earlier knowledge of stock movements, well before the public, as a result of their active trade confirmations. This time advantage would be big enough to drive a truck through. That's why simply slowing down the raw data feed would only create more problems. However, we do believe that there are a number of solutions that could be enacted to better ensure parity, so long as they were adopted by the entire industry. We could slow the raw data feeds or combine the raw data and the SIPs into single feeds or use technology to further speed up the SIPs. But all that would have to be done while simultaneously slowing trade confirmations, including those from dark pool matching engines to eliminate all trade data information advantages. But again, such speed equivalence changes would need to be universally adopted for them to have any impact, given today's fragmented market structure. I'd like to talk about co-location and why it's important that it remains a regulated business. We believe that co-location is the most fair way to serve both the latency and non-latency-sensitive customers. Let me illustrate. ICE's commodities business uses third-party data centers to house our matching engines. And years ago, we began hearing of traders that were offering to pay our data center operator larger fees if they could move their systems closer to our matching engine. We decided to work with our landlord to develop cable links and router configurations that were equal for everyone in the building who were trying to connect to us, regardless of where their specific location was in that building. Thus, it was out of a sense of preserving fair access that the co-location business was born. We continue to examine the co-location offerings at our data centers to make certain that their use is appropriate, codified and fair. And finally, let me mention that the U.S. equity market simply has to look to its cousin, the U.S. equity options market to adopt best practices and a good regulatory model. For example, off-exchange trading is allowed, but those trade opportunities must be offered to others in regulated markets. Market makers have true price quoting obligations, and in return, they receive fee discounts and additional messaging capacity. Exchanges have rules and fines to deter excessive orders from being sent and from being canceled. All of these features are very similar to what we've already implemented in our futures market, and all of these features in the U.S. equity options markets are regulated. Clearly, we spent a lot of time during my tenure at ICE thinking about and solving for better market structures, whether it was the market for OTC energy, the market for Credit Default Swaps or now the U.S. cash equities markets. And I believe that one of the things that ICE does well is to facilitate change for the better that help our markets to grow. And I'm really hopeful that our team can advance the dialogue here. In the meantime, as we've discussed today, we're busy executing on a range of initiatives that we now have listed on Slide 21. Each of these is helping us to capitalize on the many opportunities to grow and serve our customers in an expanded way. We closed on the NYSE transaction just about 6 months ago. And since then, we've implemented a dividend, we've completed the acquisition of the Singapore Exchange and clearing house, and we've led in the global listings business. We completed several milestones related to the IPO of Euronext and the sale of some of our technology businesses while delivering on expense synergies and rolling out many, many new products. We launched our Benchmark Administration business, covering now both LIBOR and the fixed indices. We began developing a new trading platform for our U.S. cash equities business and our equity option exchanges, and we continue to transition the Liffe exchanges to ICE. We're not waiting for the business to come to us. We're going to where our customers need us to be, and we look forward to continuing to report to you on this progress. I want to conclude my remarks by referring you to Slide 22. And note that ICE's growth is consistent and we have found opportunities for growth amid change. We focus on our customers' needs every day, and in doing so, we've been able to drive shareholder value. So I want to thank our customers for trusting us with their business, and I want to thank our team for delivering these great results. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator, Emily, for a Q&A session.