Scott A. Hill
Analyst · Bank of America.
Yes. I think those are both good questions. Let me start with the clearing one. So from a clearing standpoint, I think there are -- as I said, I think there are a number of opportunities. We've got 400 clearing members signed up -- or over 400, another 150 we think we get in Phase 3. But only -- I think it was 268 was the precise number that are clearing today. So there's an opportunity in another 300-ish customers that aren't clearing today that will clear in the future. There's the buy-side clients in Europe, who haven't had an offering yet. We'll launch our buy-side offering in Europe in October. Look, I think the reality is similar to the U.S. I don't know that the buy side is going to come rushing in the day it's available. I think it will depend on ultimately when EMIR makes the clearing mandatory, but that's another wave of growth that's in front of us. Western European sov, we've been working the launch effort, feels like, 3 years. And we're -- I think we're at the last step with the regulators there, and I'm hopeful we get that done this year. That's another growth contributor. So look, I said earlier, we kind of plateaued in the mid-60s. We're on our way this year to the mid-80s. There's no reason, in my view, that, that business can't get north of $100 million over the next year or 2. And again, that's without any pickup in the market, which kind of segues to the second part of your question. I do think that getting the SEF rules written down, continuing to work with customers on the CDS future product and refining that product and understanding what tools they need in getting people convinced to come in and make market. I do think that, that ultimately will help that market turn around. There's no question that there is still a market in the banks and with the buy side and an interest in trading credit. Whether or not that's in the traditional OTC product or it's in the futures product that we're launching, whether it moves to a futures exchange or on a SEF, I think it's difficult to see. But I do think we're starting to see the foundation solidify for the execution market to turn. Again, whether that's third or fourth quarter or into early next year, I think it's difficult to call. We're managing right now our brokerage business to basically hang in there and break even. We're introducing product. We're working with customers. So then it was -- when it does turn, we're positioned, and in the meantime, we continue to earn money on the clearing operations. But I think the best news for us is when the execution market does turn, not only will we benefit in the execution, but it will multiply the benefits we see on the clearing.