Michael Miller
Analyst · Stephens. Please proceed with your question.
No, actually. I think that – I mean of course, it depends on what the growth rates look like and how quickly it comes. But it – starts which – we would agree that starts are stabilizing and that we wouldn’t expect significant declines from this point, and we would expect increases, maybe not huge increases, but still increases. If you think of – and again, I am just talking about single-family, with single-family starts running around 800,000, but completions running around a million, that implies that you can increase starts 25% from where they are today and be at the same level of industry capacity. Now again, based on the answer that we had to the previous question, I mean the Census Bureau information, particularly on a quarterly or monthly basis, isn’t a complete picture, but it certainly is directionally correct. So, as a consequence, we think there is plenty of room to grow, from a starts perspective, with the existing capacity in the industry, and then that’s not assuming that we even get growth within capacity. Now fiberglass, as I think everybody knows, is pretty tight right now. And it leads to Jeff’s answer on why we don’t think it’s necessarily a deflationary environment, but the reality is that all building products right now are experiencing some softness given the significant decline in starts. I mean if you look at on a quarter-over-quarter basis, the public builders in the fourth quarter, they reported backlogs that had declined over 20%. Now, what we find extremely encouraging is that their quarter-over-quarter first quarter backlogs are up mid to high-single digits. So, that’s very encouraging, and it kind of constructs or informs our view of being a little bit more positive about the back half of the year than we may have been, but also that fourth quarter backlog that was down, the highest that it’s been down in this cycle, is the work that we are working on in the second quarter. So, as I have said, the answer to a previous question, we think that the softness in single-family is going to be more concentrated in the second quarter than we had originally anticipated, but that the recovery is actually better than we expected as we go into the back half of this year.