Operator
Operator
Welcome and thank you for standing by. Now I will turn the meeting over to Patricia Murphy, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin. Patricia Murphy, Vice President of Investor Relations : Thank you. This is Patricia Murphy, Vice President of Investor Relations for IBM. Here with me today is Mark Loughridge, IBM’s Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Office. Thank you for joining our Q1 earnings presentation. By now, the opening page of the presentation should have automatically loaded and you should be on the title page, chart one. The charts will automatically advance as we move through the presentation. However, if you prefer to manually control the charts at any time, you can uncheck the synchronize button on the left of the presentation. As always, the prepared remarks will be available in roughly an hour, and a replay of this webcast will be posted to our investor relations website by this time tomorrow. This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures in an effort to provide additional information to investors. All non-GAAP measures have been reconciled to their related GAAP measures, in accordance with SEC rules. You will find reconciliation charts at the end, and the form 8-K to be submitted to the SEC. For those of you who are manually controlling the charts, please click on the ‘next’ button for chart two. Certain comments made in this presentation may be characterized as forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Those statements involve a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in the company’s filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC, from the IBM website or from us in Investor Relations. Now let’s go to chart three, and I’ll turn the call over to Mark Loughridge. Mark Loughridge, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer : Thanks, Patricia. In Q1 we delivered $20.7 billion in revenue, which is down 10% as reported. Without PCs and the impact of currency, revenue was up 4%. Our pretax income was $2.4 billion, up 21%, and we delivered EPS of $1.08, up 27% YtoY. Remember that in 2005 our Q1 results included the PC business. On a comparable basis, without the now-divested PC business, revenue was slack, but up 4% at constant currency. Our pretax income was up 24% and EPS was up 30%. Our cash and balance sheet remains strong. Net cash from operations, excluding Global Financing receivables was $700 million, up $1.6 billion YtoY. We ended the quarter with $12.3 billion of cash on hand and low debt levels from our non financing business. Before getting into the details of our Q1 results, I want to spend a moment on a discussion of the structure of our business. We’ve done a lot to reposition our business model over the last couple of years to focus on higher-value solutions. We’ve exited commoditizing businesses such as hard disk drives, displays and most recently the PC business. At the same time, we’ve been a strategic acquirer of higher-value software and services capabilities. The result is a business structure and profit profile that is relatively balanced between services, hardware and software. The business mix varies by the quarter, based on the skew of our business throughout the year. In Q1, hardware and financing represented a smaller percentage, as is typical. The strength of the IBM business model is not in any single component, is it in our ability to integrate and package across our segments, to create solution offerings for our clients, and by executing that model we can generate more consistent cash and earnings over the long term, enabling investments for future growth and consistent returns of cash to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchase. At the same time, we’re working to create a truly globally integrated company. Let me give you a few examples. Last year, we restructured our European operation to create a more streamlined and efficient management system and more competitive cost structure. We have globalized our support functions and created global competencies in our services business, to leverage our scale, drive efficiency and increase responsiveness. We’re shifting resourced to utilize highly skilled talent in emerging countries. We saw the benefit of these actions in the second half of 2005 and it continued in Q1. As get into the details of the quarterly results, you’ll see that our performance once again reflects the strength of our business model, the global scope of our enterprise and the ability of our broad portfolio to consistently generate strong earnings in cash. Now let’s start with revenue, chart four. Total revenue in Q1 was down 10% YtoY as reported. Without the PC business, revenue was flat. Without the PC business and the impact of currency our revenue was up 4%. Global Services was down 1% YtoY as reported, but up 3% at constant currency. The cumulative effect of YtoY improvement in long-term signings over the last several quarters and an increase in short-term signings in the current quarter contributed to a sequential improvement in the revenue growth rate. Hardware revenue was down 32% as reported. Without the PC business in our 2005 results, hardware was up 3% and up 6% at constant currency. Our hardware results were mixed by brand, with good performance in microelectronics, System X servers and our storage business offset by weak sales in other server brands. Software revenue was up 2% and up 6% at constant currency. This performance was led by double-digit growth in our key middleware brands, with particular strength in WebSphere and Tivoli. Global Financing revenue was up 1% as reported and up 4% at constant currency, driven by the interest rate environment and customer financing originations, or signings, were up double digits. Now let’s turn to revenue by geography, chart 5. This provides the best view of our ongoing geographic performance. I’ll focus my comments on the results without PCs at constant currency. Looking at the geographies, at 6% the Americas delivered its best growth rate in six quarters, led by software and services performance. All regions grew, with continued solid performance in the United States. Growth in Europe accelerated to 3%. France and Spain showed solid growth and Italy returned to growth. The UK was also up, but Germany declined. While results remain mixed by country, overall our performance improved due to a combination of a slowly improving economic environment and better execution under our new management system. Asia-Pacific revenue declined 2% this quarter. The performance continued to be impacted by Japan, which represents about 60% of the Asia-Pacific revenue base. We’re continuing to implement actions to improve performance. While we saw modest improvements this quarter, revenues still declined. In all other Asia-Pacific regions growth improved. The strongest growth came from China and India. China and India, together with Brazil and Russia represent our key emerging countries. Together, these four countries grew 18%. YtoY growth was led by India, up 61% over Q1 last year while China grew 15%, Brazil grew 1% and Russia 48%. We’re building capability in these emerging countries, especially in India and China. In these two countries alone, we ended Q1 with 45,000 resources to support the local demand as well as global demand. But it’s not just about putting resources in low-cost countries. It’s about having access to the right skills in the right places, for the right tasks. It’s about bringing together the front-end capabilities with the back-end processes, to provide higher-value solutions. We’ll continue to shift investments to these high-growth markets. Finally, our OEM growth was 26% in Q1 driven by strong game chip performance in our microelectronics business. Now we’ll move on to our gross profit, chart six. Gross profit margin in Q1 was 39.1%, up 3.1 points YtoY. Without the improvements from divesting the low margin PC business, margin was up five-tenths of a point. Global Services gross profit margin was up 2.3 points YtoY. The trends we saw in the second half of last year continued, with the improvement achieved through good yield from our productivity initiative, and improved utilization. Hardware gross profit margin improved 3.6 points YtoY, driven by the divestiture of the PC business. Without PCs, the hardware gross profit margin was down 4.1 points. We’ll comment on margin dynamics when we get to the hardware section. Software gross profit margin improved four tenths, lifted by strong revenue performance off a relatively fixed cost base. Global Financing gross profit margin was down 1.3 points, due primarily to lower financing spreads. For the quarter, Global Financing’s return on equity was 34%. Now let’s turn to expense, chart seven. Total expense and other income declined 10% in Q1, as reported. Without the PC results in 2005, expense and other income were better by 6%. Expense to revenue was 27.3%, about flat as reported, but improved 1.7 points YtoY, adjusting for the divested PC business. Each quarter, to help investors understand the drivers of our operational performance, we highlight those items in cost and expense that significantly impacted our profit growth. We refer to this as our roadmap. In Q1, we had a couple of items that significantly helped our profit growth. We continued to benefit from our Q2 2005 productivity initiatives. These actions were designed to give us a more competitive cost structure and more pricing flexibility. As we discussed in the past, some of the benefit flows through the price, some is invested back in the business and some goes to the bottom line. Total equity compensation was down about $85 million YtoY, due primarily to lower grants over the last few years. Continued workforce rebalancing is a part of any vital company, with the amount in any quarter likely to vary. During Q1 these charges were down $65 million YtoY. In Q1, other income benefited from a $94 million YtoY increase through interest income, reflecting our strong cash balance and increasing interest rates. Turning to the items that hurt our YtoY profit growth, retirement-related plans, both pension and retiree medical, generated $623 million of cost and expense in the quarter, a YtoY hurt of $74 million. For the full year, we now expect these plans to cost us between $2.3-2.4 billion, a $200-300 million year over year impact, excluding last year’s one-time charges. This is less than the previously estimated $400-500 million range due to reductions in our non-US pension funds. Though we’re still facing a significant YtoY increase, we’re making progress in our efforts to mitigate the impact. Before moving on to cash flow performance, let me comment on currency. The US dollar has generally strengthened since Q1 2005. IBM hedges its major cross-border cash flows and as a result mitigates the effect of currency volatility in the year over year results. The impact of these hedging programs is principally reflected in other income and expense as well as cost of goods sold. This quarter, consistent with Q4, hedging programs account for approximately $150 million of an improvement in other income and expense. Keep in mind that this benefit offsets the negative impact of currency translation throughout our income statement. I’m not going to predict future currency moves, but at current spot rates we would expect a 1-2 point impact to revenue growth in Q2 before moderating in 2H06. Over an extended period of time, a stronger US dollar negatively impacts IBM’s revenue and earnings. The supplemental chart at the end of the presentation benchmarks currency’s potential future impact on revenue, assuming Monday’s exchange rate. Now let’s turn to cash flow, chart eight. In Q1 we had outstanding cash generation. Our cash from operations, excluding Global Financing receivables was the strongest Q1 we have seen in the last five years, driven by earnings in accounts receivable performance. This cash flow analysis chart has one primary difference from the FAS 95 format. It considers Global Financing receivables as an investment to generate profits, not as working capital that should be minimized for efficiency. In Q1, net cash provided from operations, excluding the change in Global Financing receivables, was over $700 million, an increase of over $1.6 billion from last year. Last year, in Q1 we contributed $1.7 billion to the US pension fund, while this year we made a $1 billion pension contribution to the UK pension fund. Excluding the pension funding from both years, we generated over $900 million more cash from operations YtoY. Our cash performance was driven primarily by growth in net income and our continued focus on working capital and supply chain management. Within working capital, receivables collections continued to improve. Inventory decreased over $450 million YtoY. Adjusted for the sale of the PC business, inventory was down over $275 million, primarily in microelectronics. Also in working capital, we paid out $250 million in restructuring cash payments, and funded a $1 billion contribution to the UK pension fund in Q1 2006. Turning to our use of cash for investments, net capital expenditures were $1 billion, consistent with last year’s activity. Let me make a subtotal here, since many investors look at cash flow after capital expenditures. Net of capital expenditures, we had a use of cash of less than $300 million, a net increase in cash flows of $1.6 billion YtoY. Without the pension contributions, we generated over $900 million more cash flow this year. Next, our Global Financing receivables, net of changes and Global Financing debt, were a source of $2.9 billion. This is almost $200 million less than last year. We spent approximately $700 million on acquisitions in Q1, driven primarily by the software acquisition of Micromuse. We continue to drive very strong returns to shareholders. We returned over $2.8 billion to investors in Q1. $2.5 billion of this was through share repurchase. We bought back over 31 million shares, and average diluted shares were at 1.6 billion, down 4.4% from a year ago. We have approximately $2.5 billion remaining at the end of March from our last board authorization. In Q1 we paid out over $300 million in dividends. Over the last 10 years, we have returned over $70 billion to our shareholders, through share buybacks and dividends. Moving on to chart nine, we’ll discuss the balance sheet. Our cash on hand was $12.3 billion. 94% of our total debt of $22.5 billion was driven by our Global Financing business, and Global Financing was leveraged at an appropriate 6.9:1. The remaining non-financing debt level was about $1.4 billion and debt to capital was 4.4%. Our balance sheet remains very strong, and we’re well positioned to capitalize on future opportunities and meet our cash needs. Now let’s turn to our business units, starting with Global Services, chart 10. Global Services delivered revenue of $11.6 billion, declining 1% as reported, and up 3% at constant currency. Signings for services this quarter were $11.4 billion at constant currency. Short-term signings were up 5%, and longer-term signings were up 20%. This quarter, we signed 13 deals larger than $100 million and our backlog remains stable, estimated at $111 billion. Before turning to our services businesses, let me remind you of the management system changes we made to last quarter. Global Services’ segment results will now be reported as two segments. Global Technology Services segment primarily reflects infrastructure services, delivering value to our global scale, standardization and automation. It includes our outsourcing businesses, both strategic and business transformation, Integrated Technology Services and maintenance. Global Business Services segment primarily reflects professional services, delivering business value and innovation to our clients through solutions which leverage industry and business process expertise. It includes consulting, systems integration and application management services. With these new segments, we’re providing additional information to help investors understand our services business, including revenue performance of our business transformation outsourcing business, and long and short-term signings for each of these segments. Let me get into each of the businesses. Global Technology Services delivered revenue of $7.7 billion, declining 1% as reported, but up 2% at constant currencies. For the segment, longer-term signings were up 40% YtoY and shorter-term signings were up 3%. We delivered double digit signings growth across all geographies in the quarter. Strategic outsourcing revenue was down 3% as reported and flat at constant currencies. Signings increased 50% YtoY, led by stronger growth in the Americas, with both Europe and Asia-Pacific also growing double digits. Business transformation outsourcing revenue was up 47% as reported and up 51% at constant currency. I should note that one large contract renegotiation drove 12 points of the growth. Our BTO revenue grew in all geographies, reflecting broad-based customer acceptance of our offerings. BTO signings were down 9% year to year, coming off a very strong growth in 2005. Like strategic outsourcing, BTO engagements are longer-term and so signings in any period can be lumpy. Integrated Technology Services revenue was down 6% as reported, and down 3% at constant currency. Revenue continued to be impacted by signings declined in Q3 and Q4 2005. We’re continuing to implement actions to improve the Integrated Technology Services business. We’ve added about one third more people into our business development and sales coverage roles. We’ll be focused on selling our infrastructure solutions and our traditional services. The infrastructure solutions that we’ve launched are gaining traction in the market as customers see the value created by leveraging IBM’s market-leading software and hardware. For example, we see strong interest in IT resources optimization, end user services and business continuity. While we still have work to do; we did see a reversal in the signings trend this quarter - up 3%. Turning to margins, Global Technology Services pre-tax margin was 10.3%, an improvement of 2.5 points YtoY. This was driven by the cost and expense benefit of last year’s productivity initiative, sales execution and operational improvements and better contract profiles. Global Business Services delivered $3.8 billion of revenue, declining 1% as reported but up 4% at constant currency. For the segment, shorter-term signings were up 5% YtoY and longer-term signings were down 27%. Revenue performance this quarter were driven by strong growth in our consulting offerings in the Americas and in our application management services offerings in the Americas and Europe. Overall, revenue growth however continues to be impacted by weakness in Asia-Pacific and in particular Japan. Last quarter I talked about some of the actions we were taking to improve growth in our consulting business. Let me give you a sense of how we are doing. We are continuing to increase the level of dedicated sales resource to drive our business and web services and SOA solutions. We invested in resource to address mid-market opportunities which contributed to double digit growth in small and medium business. We increased the level of services resource in Asia-Pacific. This quarter, shorter-term signings growth exceeded 20% but we still have more work to do to yield better results in this region. Turning to margin, Global Business Services pre-tax margin was 8.5%, an improvement of 4.7 points YtoY. This represents a substantial improvement in margin. The improvement came from increased utilization and operational improvements, and the cost and expense benefit from last year’s productivity initiative. (To wrap up?) Q1 for Global Services, we’re beginning to see the expected turnaround in our services business, driven by long-term signings growth over the past four quarters. We have improved growth in Global Business Services, indicating that we are beginning to get traction from the initiative we’ve implemented over the past two quarter. We improved margins in both service segments while making our services business more cost competitive. To improve performance going forward, we will continue to focus on actions to improve our Integrated Technology Services business and Global Business Services in Japan. Now I’ll move on to systems and technology growth, chart 11. Systems and Technology Group revenue of $4.4 billion grew 3% YtoY and 6% at constant currency. Growth was led by microelectronics, System X servers, storage and retail store solutions. While gross margin was up for hardware overall, excluding the PC business in 2005 it was down YtoY. Product mix negatively impacted systems and technology profit on two levels. First, we had strong growth in our lower-margin businesses, microelectronics and System X servers. Second, within most of our system brands, we had better performance in the low end of the product lines, which typically have lower margins. Turning to the brand, System Z revenue declined 6% YtoY at actual currency, down 2% at constant currency. MIPS grew 22% YtoY, driven by continued strong customer acceptance of specialty engines for Linux and Java workloads. Over 35% of the MIPS shipped were on these engines, the largest percentage of specialty engines in a quarter. These engines are priced aggressively to drive these workloads onto the platform. This is good for the longer term, but because the engines are priced aggressively, the MIPS impacted our revenue and margin in the quarter. We expect a more typical workload mix in the future. We continue to add capability to platform and later this month we will announce our new midrange System Z. The workload mix, together with new capabilities, will help to drive improved performance in Q2. System I revenue declined 22% and 19% at constant currency, as customers evaluated the refreshed System I products which became generally available in February. Revenue declines are not unusual in the quarter that we roll out a new product announcement. System I had strong volumes and revenue growth in its low end and express models, which target the small and medium business market space. We expect to see improvement in the midrange and high end of the product lines as the year progresses. System P Unix servers declined 9% in the quarter, down 6% at constant currency. System P volumes were up 9%, however revenue performance reflects a mix towards lower-end offerings. We expect more balance in the mix in Q2, as we’ll have our first full quarter of shipments of our new 570s, and QuadCore(?) 560 midrange models. System P will complete its transition to POWER5+ in Q3. System X servers grew 10% YtoY and 13% at constant currency, with growth in all geographies. Server volumes grew over 20%, reflecting continued strong performance in Blades, which grew over 45% in both volumes and revenue. We had strong customer acceptance of the new BladeCenter 8, the industry’s first high-speed chassis. We believe we gained share in System X servers, and maintained our leadership in Blade. Total storage grew 6%, 9% at constant currency. Total disks grew 6%, driven by strength in the midrange. Our storage virtualization momentum continued with strong growth in Q1. Tape grew 5% in the quarter. We believe we held share in both tape and disk storage. Microelectronics revenue grew 37% YtoY, based on strong client demand in the game processor business. The annex of our East Fishkill fab is now operation and supporting production of 90 nanometer product and 65 nanometer development. Engineering and technology services revenue declined 15% YtoY as we wrapped around on last year’s strong performance. We continue to leverage IBM’s advanced technologies with new customers in their innovative projects. For example, NTS leverages its system design capability to collaborate with St. Jude Medical in the design, development and manufacturing of a patient care management system for implantable cardiac devices. Physicians will use the system to more efficiently conduct tests, review stored data and program the implanted devices for optimal patient care. Earlier this year, we announced the technology collaboration solutions organization, which combines engineering and technology services, OEM microelectronics and other key capabilities including our IT portfolio. These capabilities help our clients leverage collaborative innovation, spanning the entire technology lifecycle from the conceptual design to production. Technology collaboration solutions will drive synergistic flows from IBM’s core technologies. Now let’s move on to software, chart 12. Software, at $3.9 billion, was up 2% YtoY and was up 6% at constant currency. This growth was driven by our key middleware products while operating systems and product lifecycle management software declined. Our key branded middleware products continued to benefit from investments in development, sales and marketing, capturing the emerging trends in the marketplace. Our strategic acquisitions also add to the breadth and depth of this portfolio. As a result, we are well-positioned in these fast-growing technologies and our Q1 results point to the progress we’ve made. Key branded middleware is made up of five key brands which provide an integrated suite for our customers. The WebSphere Family of software grew 26% and was up 30% at constant currency. WebSphere provides the foundation for web-enabled applications and is a key product set in deploying services-oriented architectures. We are the market leader in SOA and are seeing strong demand for our WebSphere products, including the application server, portal and our business integration products. We believe we gained share for the quarter. Information management software grew 6% and was up 10% at constant currency. We continue to enhance and expand our information management portfolio with products built around information on demand. We had particularly strong performance in our information integration product set, as essential products continue to build momentum. We believe we gained share in this market, and grew faster than our closest competitor. Lotus software was flat YtoY, up 5% at constant currency. Our Lotus products provide customers with collaborative solutions which enable the integration of people, data and business processes as part of IBM’s on demand and SOA strategies. In a mature market, our Domino products had competitive pressure. However, adoption of Lotus workplace software continues, more than doubling YtoY. Tivoli software was up 24% and up 28% at constant currency. Our growth was broad based, with systems management, security and storage software all delivering double digit revenue growth in the quarter. Our portfolio of storage software products have been embraced by our customers and business partners, due to their competitive price points and superior functionality. Midway through the first quarter, we completed the acquisition of Micromuse, which contributed profit in the quarter. Customers are quickly recognizing the value of the combined Micromuse and Tivoli product portfolios to help them manage their IT-based business service needs. We believe Tivoli gained share for the quarter. Rational software was down 8% and down 4% at constant currency in a slowing market. In total, our key branded middleware improved 11% YtoY and was up 14% at constant currency. Other middleware was down 1% as reported, but up 1% at constant currency. Other middleware includes legacy products which provide a stable base of profits but grow at more modest rates. Operating system software declined 12%, down 9% at constant currency. Operating systems are closely tied to our server products, and provide a sound, cost-effective platform for our middleware and solutions. Growth this quarter was impacted by new product introductions in our midrange servers. Product Lifecycle Management, or PLM software, is now included in the software segment. PLM software includes computer-aided design and manufacturing products typically used in automotive, aerospace and other industrial customers. In Q1 a number of automotive companies delayed purchases, resulting in a modest decline in revenue. Overall, our software business had another solid quarter. In 2005 we gained share in all five key brands and with double digit growth in key branded middleware this quarter, we believe we continued to take share overall in Q1. This revenue growth drove strong bottom line results. Software segment pretax margin grew 4.3 points YtoY to 23.1%. Now I’ll wrap up on chart 13. We have a balanced portfolio of businesses; hardware, software and services, designed to deliver our longer-term financial objective of double digit EPS growth. The strength and breadth of the model comes from it being able to bring these business together to consistently deliver solid overall profit performance. This quarter, we had improving fundamentals in our services business. Signings, both long-term and short-term were up YtoY. This translated to improved revenue growth and we again improved our margins. In hardware, we had good performance in microelectronics, storage and our System X servers, while our other server brands were impacted by new product introductions and mix. Our strong software performance was led by our key branded middleware products, especially WebSphere and Tivoli, reflecting strong demands for products deploying services-oriented architectures and the value of our systems management, security and storage offerings. For Q1 our profit performance was once again driven by a combination of unit performance, portfolio action and execution of our productivity initiatives. Our services, hardware and software businesses together drove revenue growth of 4%, profit growth of 21%, EPS growth of 27% and solid cash performance. Given our start for the year, we are on track to deliver EPS growth for 2006 in line with the IBM model. This is consistent with the average of your estimates for the year. Before going to Q&A, I wanted to mention our investor meeting later this quarter. As I stated up front, we are working to create at truly globally integrated company. One important element of our strategy is leveraging performance in emerging countries including India and China. We’d like to share our unique global capabilities and for that reason we’re hosting our investor meeting in India in June. We have a full two-day agenda planned. You’ll have an opportunity to attend a large employee event, to visit our facilities at Bangalore and to meet face to face with major business leaders from Asia. You can get more information on the event from Patricia, and our investor relations team. We’re excited about the program and I hope that you’ll join us on June 6th and 7th in Bangalore. Now Patricia and I will take your questions.