Paul Brody
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your line is open
Thank you, Thomas. Welcome everyone to the call. As usual, I will review the summary results and then give segment highlights before we open it up for questions. Overall operating metrics reflected the drop in market volatility and industry volumes. In particular, the August doldrums led to a slide in DARTs to the lowest level since November 2014, but volume rebounded substantially back to more recent levels in September. Average overall daily trade volume for the quarter was 1.26 million trades per day, down 10% from the third quarter of 2015 and down 5% sequentially, as the average VIX level declined 31% and 15%, respectively, over the same time period. On the positive side, the story of the quarter was strong gains in asset gathering and brokerage, as I will describe more in my comments on that segment’s performance. Electronic brokerage metrics showed solid increases in the number of customer accounts and in customer equity, up 15% and 33% respectively. Total and cleared customer DARTs declined 11% and 9%, respectively, from the year ago quarter in the face of low volatility. Note that last year’s comparative quarter reflected an extreme run-up in volume from low priced Hong Kong shares and a spike in volume during the August 2015 market turbulence. Orders from cleared customers who clear and carry their positions and cash with us and contribute more revenue grew slightly this quarter to 93% of total DARTs. Market Making contract and share volumes were similarly down across product types. Third quarter net revenues declined 4% versus last year, while pre-tax income was down at 9% for a pre-tax margin of 53%. Our brokerage results were boosted somewhat by strong gains in customer accounts and equity, while low volatility and a decline in options volumes continued to impact market making. Other market factors had the following impact. Market volatility fell, as I mentioned, the average VIX fell 31% year-over-year while actual to implied volatility fell 32%. From a historical perspective, the relatively low VIX dampens trading volume and therefore brokerage revenues, while both measures affect our market making business. With no major events in the quarter creating market volatility, there were fewer opportunities for our market making business in particular. The U.S. dollar was mixed versus other major currencies. As a result, the currency basket in which we keep our equity, which we call the GLOBAL, rose 0.26% against the dollar for the third quarter. This resulted in a gain of $13 million, which includes the gain of $11 million reported in other income and a gain of $2 million in other comprehensive income, or OCI. We estimate the total impact in earnings per share from the GLOBAL to be a gain of $0.022 for the quarter, with $0.018 reported as other income and $0.004 as OCI. Finally, medium-term interest rates rose a bit during the quarter as the Federal Reserve appears a bit closer to raising rates. As a result, mark-to-market losses on our Treasury portfolio were $15 million. Although we plan to hold these securities to maturity, we must, as brokers, unlike banks, mark them to market quarterly. Net revenues were $345 million for the quarter, down 4% on a reported basis from the year ago quarter. Several factors that fall outside our core operating activities should be considered in comparing the current quarter’s revenues to the prior year’s. First, our currency strategy caused a gain of $11 million, versus a loss of $24 million in the year ago quarter. Next, the treasury portfolio marks to market deducted $15 million from our revenues in the current quarter compared to a gain of $5 million in the year ago quarter. And adjusting for these two factors, on a pro forma basis, our total net revenues would be $349 million in the current quarter and $378 million in the year ago quarter or down 8%. The decrease was driven primarily by lower trading gains in our market making business and lower commissions versus an unusually strong quarter in 2015, partially offset by a higher net interest income in both brokerage and market making. Trading gains were $38 million for the quarter, down 56% from the year ago quarter. Commissions and execution fees were $144 million, down 14%. Net interest income was $136 million, up 28% from the year ago quarter, and brokerage produced $131 million, with market making $5 million of the net interest income. Other income which as I described earlier, includes the effects of our currency diversification strategy and Treasury portfolio marks was $27 million, up from a loss of $1 million in the prior year quarter. Non-interest expenses were $162 million for the quarter, up 3% from the same quarter last year, and the rise reflects specific increases in fixed expense categories, in particular, legal and compliance costs. And generally, we continued to closely manage our expenses. At September 30, 2016, our total headcount stood at 1,194, an increase of 10% of the year end count and up 2% sequentially. We have continued to expand in a few key areas, notably customer service, legal and compliance, and software development, all of which support the growing brokerage business. Our reported pre-tax income this quarter was $183 million, leading to a 53% pre-tax margin. And excluding the GLOBAL and treasury portfolio market impacts, our pre-tax income would have been $187 million. This compares with third quarter 2015 adjusted pre-tax income of $221 million, net of the same factors. As adjusted, the overall pre-tax margin was 54% versus 58% last year. Brokerage pre-tax profit was a reported 56% as compared to 61% last year. And adjusted for the Treasury portfolio marks, brokerage pre-tax profit was 58% versus 60% in the prior year quarter. Market making pre-tax profit margin was 16% versus 51% last year. Comprehensive diluted earnings per share were $0.30 for the quarter as compared to $0.23 for the third quarter of 2015. On a non-comprehensive basis, which excludes OCI, diluted earnings per share on net income were also $0.30 for the quarter as compared to $0.35 for the same period in 2015. And excluding all currency impacts, diluted earnings per share were $0.28 for the current quarter versus $0.37 for the year ago quarter on the same basis. Our balance sheet remains highly liquid with low leverage. We actively manage our excess liquidity and we maintain significant borrowing facilities through the securities lending markets and with banks. As a general practice, we hold an amount of cash on hand that provides us with a buffer should we need immediately available funds for any reason. At September 30, we maintained over $4.2 billion in excess regulatory capital in our broker dealer companies around the world, of which about 70% is in the brokerage segment. We continue to carry no long-term debt and our consolidated equity capital at September 30, 2016 was $5.87 billion, of which approximately $3.9 billion was held in brokerage, $1.6 billion in market making and the remainder in the corporate segment. Now, I will turn to the segment results and begin with electronic brokerage. This quarter, we saw a decline in stock volume largely driven by a drop in the low-priced stocks trading in Hong Kong from the spike in the prior year quarter. Customer trade volumes were lower across product types. Overall, cleared trades fell 6%. Cleared customer options and futures contracts and stock share volumes fell 18%, 16% and 5% respectively from the year ago quarter. Foreign exchange dollar volume was off 14% from the year ago quarter. And contributing factors were the overall contraction in the retail FX market as well as our policy change which took effect around September 1, limiting customers with less than $10 million in assets from making FX trades using leverage. We adopted this limitation due to a lack of clarity on the regulation of retail FX business in the United States. However, the impact on our overall FX volume was not substantial. Commission revenue fell 15% on a product mix that featured smaller average trade sizes across options and futures, and slightly higher average trade sizes in stocks. This mix resulted in an overall average cleared commission per DART of $3.91 for the quarter, down 5% from the year ago quarter, but unchanged sequentially. Customer equity grew to $82.7 billion, up 33% from last year and up 12% sequentially. The source of this growth continued to be a strong inflow of new accounts and customer assets. We continue to attract larger customers along with financial advisers and introducing brokers that manage groups of smaller accounts, all of which results in a blend that affects both average trade size and average account equity. Our average account equity rose 16% year-on-year, and 9% sequentially, to a record high of $224,000. In addition to the larger accounts that Thomas mentioned, part of this growth was fueled by new services we have made available to administrators of employee stock plans, in which we can act as broker first to the administrator’s issuer clients and, later, directly to the employee participants. To the extent we are successful, we would expect this client segment to produce more commission revenues with some lag time. Margin debits rose 15% year-over-year, reaching their highest levels in over a year. Customers’ appetite for increased risk, along with expanded prime broker financing, were responsible for this increase. Customer credit balances continued their steady growth, rising 20% over the year ago quarter. Net interest income rose to $131 million, up 28% from last year. The acceleration in asset gathering we achieved in the third quarter sets the stage for larger revenue contributions from interest sensitive assets going forward. The Federal Reserve’s increase in the Fed Funds target rate last December, together with increased customer balances, has generated more net interest income on cash balances. And our stock yield enhancement program, where we share revenues from lending out fully paid securities with our customers, continues to provide an additional source of interest revenue on securities assets. In addition, we continue to improve our securities lending utilization to capture more revenue from lending hard-to-borrow stocks. With the growing customer asset base, we continue to believe we are well positioned to prudently maximize our net interest income given the opportunities presented by the market. Based on current balances, we estimate that a general rise in overnight interest rates of another 25 basis points would produce an additional $52 million in net interest income annually. Further increases in rates would have a smaller impact, because the interest we pay to customers is pegged to the benchmark rates less a narrow spread. Fixed expenses in brokerage were $77 million, up 5% sequentially and 20% over the year ago quarter. Primary components of this increase were higher compensation costs related to software development and higher regulatory costs, which includes legal services and regulatory settlements. As we have stated before, we expect the regulatory burden to continue growing, but we believe our focus on applying technology to compliance and regulation will keep our cost of compliance lower than our competitors. Customer bad debt expense was $3 million, down 57% from the charges recognized in the third quarter of 2015, which had resulted from the market turbulence in that period. The current reserves are related to exceptional price volatility in several biotech stocks. Our risk committee has used these events to enhance our scenario based risk models to raise margins on stocks that may be faced with similar binary outcome events. Turning to market making, trade volume declined year-over-year across the product types. Options and futures contract volumes fell 22% and 14% respectively, while share volume was down 36%. As in brokerage, a substantial portion of the drop in stock volume came from low priced stocks trading in Hong Kong, which produced the spike in volume in August 2015. Trading gains from market making for the third quarter were $38 million, down 56% from the year ago quarter, but up 12% from the second quarter. Market volatility measures were similarly lower than the year ago and there were no outstanding market events in the latest quarter that presented us with exceptional profit opportunities. On the cost side, execution and clearing fees expenses were down 15%, in line with lower trading volumes. And fixed expenses decreased to $19 million, down 21% from the year ago quarter as we continue to pare the cost of running this business. In the Corporate segment, the earnings reported for Corporate reflect the effects of our currency diversification strategy. Our overall equity as measured in U.S. dollars rose as the U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, Japanese yen and the Australian dollar, among other currencies, and strengthened primarily against the British pound and the Mexican peso. We estimate the overall gain from our strategy of carrying our equity in proportion to the GLOBAL to be about $13 million for the third quarter of 2016. And as I described, because $2 million of the GLOBAL gain is reported as other comprehensive income, this leads to a gain of $11 million to be included in reported earnings. At the end of the second quarter, we made some modest changes to the composition of the GLOBAL, as we reported at that time, and so the third quarter reflects the new basket’s proportions. And now I would like to turn the call back over to the moderator and we will take some questions.