Bill Sperry
Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead
Good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the time to be with us. I also want to welcome Akshay to the team. I'm personally excited to partner with him. I think we can add a lot of value by ramping up our operational intensity. So looking forward to that. My comments are going to start on Page 6 and really summarize the very strong financial quarter that Hubbell team turned in, in the third quarter of 2022. So on the upper left, we'll start with sales. You see an increase of 21% to just over $1.3 billion in sales. That -- 21% increase is comprised of 20% organic, 2% from M&A and one-point of drag from FX. The 20% organic is comprised of about a 13% price and approximately 7% volume. So, actually, quite impressive contributions from both volume and price, which will filter through all of our comments around our performance, and those are obviously comparisons to prior year. We find it instructive to track sales on a sequential basis as well. And for sales to be up mid-single digits from the prior quarter where there's kind of equal contributions to that mid-single-digit growth sequentially from both price and volume. I think that's a pretty good sign that we may be seeing some modest easing in the supply chain. In other words, I would say we were trying to operate at capacity in the second quarter, a function of a high backlog and the need to serve our customers who wanted our material -- and for us to be able to grow the volume part of that from second quarter to third quarter sequentially. I think there's a little bit of sign of easing across the availability of staffing, availability materials and transportation as well. So, as we think about the demand underlying that sales growth, I would characterize it as broad-based growth both Electrical and Utility experiencing impressive growth and inside of the segments, quite a broad-based contribution to growth inside of each segment. Orders continue to outpace sales, and we are building backlog through the third quarter. That skews towards the Utility segment as our Electrical segment has a much more balanced book and bill feel to it now starting to get back in line and balance there, which I think is also good news as we track. So, on the upper right, you'll see operating profit, a growth of 37% and operating profit dollars to $224 million and nearly two points of margin expansion in the quarter. That margin expansion is really driven by price/cost favorability and that favorability is needed to overcome the other inflation as well as some of the inefficiencies that the supply chain disruptions are causing inside of our factories. The results here indicate incremental drop-through in the mid-20s, and that maybe gives you a little bit of a feel for -- that's quite normal incremental. So if it was just price cost, favorability, I think we'd see better than mid-20s incremental. So you can see that we've really needed that price to help us overcome the non-material inflation as well as the other inefficiencies. And then in the bottom left, you see the EPS quadrant, a 45% increase to $3.08 a share. And that roughly $0.95 increase in earnings year-over-year is largely driven by the improvement in operating profit, but there are also some below-the-line contributions. Tax is quite comparable. We did some share repurchases with the proceeds from the sale of C&I Lighting and there was some slight non-op contribution as well. Free cash flow for the quarter, $194 million, extremely favorable comparison to last year. I think maybe more instructive to look at the year-to-date performance on cash flow, where we feel very good about where we stand relative to delivering on our full year promise, and we'll update you on our guidance slide as to how that's going. But we're making very purposeful and intentional investments in working capital, given the growth in demand. So both receivables and inventory are requiring investment for us to satisfy our customers. We also are keen to invest in CapEx and the flavor of that CapEx difference by segment. We'll talk about in each segment, but it's skewed in Electrical, the CapEx investing towards productivity. On the Utility side, the CapEx is skewed towards expansion and capacity. So a very strong performance. And I'd like to now unpack that by segment. On Page 7, let's start with the Utility Solutions segment and just a really strong quarter turned in by our Utility franchise performing extremely well in these market conditions. You can see sales increasing 29% and operating profit dollars up 53% on with nearly three points of margin expansion. So very, very strong performance from the segment. Let's look at sales a little more closely. You see a 29% increase to $775 million. That's really mostly organic, small 1% contribution from acquisitions. I ordinarily would like to tell you a lot about the acquisitions. Ripley Tools is new to the portfolio, is performing extremely well, but you can see kind of pales in comparison to what's going on organically. And that organic performance, I would say, is comprised of volumes in the low double-digit range and price in the mid-teens range to get to that 28% organic. So very, very healthy market conditions there as well as a testament to our very, very strong positioning in those -- in this attractive market. The growth is really skewed towards the T&D Components rather than towards the comms and controls. We had 38% growth from the T&D Components. Gerben highlighted the trends there, really have aging infrastructure that requires upgrades and hardening. We have -- the move towards renewables and that -- those new sources of generation need to be transmitted, need to be distributed and need to be integrated into the system and certainly modernizing with smarter and more controls, all of which being supported by some infrastructure legislation that I think is giving our customers the confidence that there's funding for their demand. The communications & controls side, you see up a more modest 3% and that's really being skewed towards the automation controls area, which is up double digits as the comms component still being constrained by the lack of chip availability. So while we see healthy demand, we're having a lot of trouble satisfying that demand. On the operations side, I see a 50% improvement in operating profit dollars, very impressive performance to $144 million and the three points of margin expansion. Price and material being a strong contributor, but let's not lose sight of the fact that we've got double-digit volume, and that provides obviously good operating leverage lift and incrementals. And at the same time, there are headwinds coming from non-material inflation and just supply chain inefficiencies, but net-net, really strong contribution from our Utility segment. On Page 8, we unpack the Electrical Solutions segment. Also strong performance, albeit not at the same high levels, but you see -- see an impressive 12% growth to $542 million in sales. That's comprised of low single digits in unit volume and high single digit in price. So, I think you'll remember that our Electrical team started pulling price a little sooner than our Utility team and so see the Utility team experiencing higher price now as it came on a little bit later. The demand here is broad-based across various product lines and across various end markets. The exception is the resi market, where we're experiencing double-digit contraction and thinking about order of magnitude, about 15% of the segment being down double digits, gives us a couple of points of drag in this segment from that resi market. But some of the verticals, namely data centers, renewables and comms, performing very well and the industrial markets also doing very well, both on the light and the heavy side, so again, broad-based support for that 12% growth ex resi. And on the right side, you see quite a nice improvement in operating profit of 15% to $80 million. You see the margin expansion of 30 bps driven by the price material favorability and the volume growth with the supply chain creating -- and headwinds along with non-material inflation. I think it's worth a little bit commenting on orders here. We've had orders in line with sales, so balanced between book and bill. We get a lot of questions from investors if we have seen slowing here in the order pattern? And we have not. We -- but we're obviously very aware of what's happening to the consumer out there. And so that's causing us to watch our order pattern very carefully. It's causing us to invest in productivity, and it's causing us to contingency plan in case we do see a slowdown. As we think about watching carefully, it's become -- it will become a little challenging as we get closer to year-end, customer behavior in a year like this can get distorted. They each have incentive plans with their employers. It's very common for those incentive plans for the executives to have growth component as well as an inventory component. And in a year when people have reached their growth targets, they can switch towards managing inventories down. So, it's not unusual in a year like this for us to see kind of distorted year-end order pattern. So as we watch orders, we have to be careful not to overreact to one week or one month and be thoughtful and understand exactly what we're seeing, but again, for now, not seeing any slowdown. We also said we're investing in productivity. And you can see that -- on the right side, in the last bullet, we've had extra investing in productivity and restructuring in this segment. That's caused about an 80-point drag in margin. So there -- had we not been doing that investing you'd have seen a better margin expansion. But I think investments in both automation and footprint consolidation that we're doing there, proving to be very important for a successful future in the segment. So on Page 9, I wanted to transition to how the two segments performance, which you just discussed as influenced our view of the outlook for the balance of '22. And based on our better-than-expected performance in Q3 which we had talked about that a couple of weeks ago or last month in Laguna. We outperformed our expectations and are thus raising our guidance. The effect of that is to take EPS from a previous range of $940 million to $980 million and we're taking that up to $10.25 to $10.45. That's really been a consistent outperformance throughout the year. Qs one, two and three, all showing both volume and maybe even especially price being able to do better than expected. If you look at the left-hand column on Page 9, we started the year with expectations of 8% to 10% sales growth which was centered at four points of volume and five points of price. And we've done considerably better than that on price and better on volume as well. And that's kind of been consistently shown throughout the quarters of the year. And as you look at -- I like this visual of our performance because you can see that the volume is dropping through and adding nicely to last year's level of EPS. But you can really see how important our pricing strategy has been in order to get price to overcome the costs in any of the inefficiencies. Good to see the M&A program when we had a couple of additions during the second quarter. In the form of PCX, which is a data center business performing really, really nicely since we've owned it. Ripley Tools on the Utility side, extending our brands there also performing really well. So good to see them, contribute to earnings this year. And since they were midyear acquisitions, they'll contribute incrementally next year as well. I think important to note, we're not harvesting all of the earnings we could. We continue to believe it's really important to invest to make sure our future success is as bright as it can be. And the three principal areas there include productivity. That's as I said, automation and plant consolidation. It's capacity additions in the Utility segment, and there's innovation spending across both segments that we're trying to accelerate our new product development growth and allow us to outperform our end markets and do better in the future. The non-op items are offsetting here where some share repurchases and other income are offset by higher taxes, slightly higher taxes. And I'd add at the bottom, our free cash flow we had been centered at a 95% conversion rate and as the growth has exceeded our expectations, we believe we need to invest more heavily in inventory and receivables to support our customers. We also feel the need to invest in CapEx. And so, we're bringing that free cash flow down around 90% conversion. But with the increase in earnings, we're going to get to the dollars we are expecting in -- we just had a lower conversion rate. And I think as we get to next year, we'd probably be able to manage the working capital accounts on the balance sheet more efficiently and continue to improve on our customer service. So, we've got some nice trends that we think we're finishing the year with, and I'll hand it to Gerben to talk about how that informs our outlook for next year.