Bill Sperry
Analyst · Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Your line is open
Thanks, Gerben. Good morning, everybody. Hope those of you who here in the New York area are enjoying the Nor'easter here. I'm going to start my comments on page five, and there really are three recurring themes, they're going to go through the overall results, as well as breaking it down by segment. It starts with the V-shaped recovery in demand, which we're experiencing very broadly across both segments. Second is the inflation being driven by that demand, that's resulting in our pricing strategy, quite aggressive and getting great traction and good stick rates and will talk more about that. And third is the physical disruption that's coming from the uncertain supply of labor and materials, it makes it harder to plan to shift and has both capacity constraints, as well as inefficiencies and you'll hear that throughout our comments. So on page six, will show the results for the enterprise, sales up 9% to over a $1.2 billion. I think it's important for me to unpack the drivers of that sale - of sales levels. There is more unusual drivers here than is typical. So we've got starting with acquisitions at 3% that is quite normal. We've got acquisitions across both segments. We're very pleased with the exposures, we have acquired in these situations. On the Electrical side, we've gained exposure to the communications components as part of 5G rollout. On the Utility side, we've added enclosures capacity, high growth, high profit area, as well as controls and protection inside of distribution automation area. So that - those three points, we're quite happy with where we've invested there. In addition to the acquisition there's seven points of price, I'd say that's the unusual piece. And so as you do the math, you'll see that volume is actually down a point in the quarter and that has some impacts ultimately on margins here. So, going over to operating profit, you see a 4% decline to $174 million, compared to the prior year and that's result of the volumes being lower and the price cost drag, as we continue to get price, the cost inflation continues to drive up quarter-over-quarter. As we look at the OP sequentially from second quarter to third quarter, we see that the OP dollars in percent are reasonably flat, which is suggesting that the incremental price is equal to the incremental inflation. And so we'll get ahead of that as soon as we see moderation on the inflation side and as Gerben saying, we're expecting that now and in the fourth quarter. On the earnings per share side, down a similar percentage as the operating profit down 3% to $2.24. And on the free cash flow side, generating $70 million, you see that's below last year's levels, last year's situation quite different where we were actually harvesting working capital, and in this case with the V-shape recovery we're investing very heavily in areas like receivables and inventory to make sure we support the growth of the business and our ability to service customers. You'll see as we get to the full year outlook still confident in free cash flow generation. We announced, as I think all of you saw last week an increase in the dividend, high single-digit increase in our dividend rate. I think that's a good sign for you all of our confidence in the free cash flow generation and we are anticipating quite a strong fourth quarter of cash flow performance there. So now let's disaggregate into our two segments. We've got our products and solutions positioned behind the meter and in front of the meter to the edge. We'll start with the behind the meter business, which is Electrical Solutions. And you can see the Electrical team had quite a nice quarter here, a 11% sales growth to $612 million and 9% operating profit growth to $76 million. Again, I think important to unpack that sales drivers of the 11%, we have about 1% from acquisitions and 8 points of price, which results in about 2% increase in volume. And where we're seeing the strength coming on the sales side is really led by Industrial. We're seeing strength in heavy Industrial, which has some steel applications. I think you've been noticing some of the profit reports of some of the steel manufacturers. We've also got on the lighter Industrial side applications in communications and solar, those verticals providing quite a lot of growth and the Harsh & Hazardous business in Industrial serving the oil markets also seeing strength there. So the exception on the non-res side has been on the C&I lighting area, where we've had, I think, as we've talked with you all before, an important driver of market growth has been the national account business, namely big-box retailers and quick-serve restaurants. When they roll-out projects across their real estate portfolio, big drivers of volume and those discretionary projects have been a little slow to restart. They've also had - the chip shortage has affected the Lighting business volume. But the 9% growth in operating profit, driven by the couple of points of volume, which is creating drop-through. We're seeing productivity and restructuring tailwinds and the price material, we've gotten a price here in the segment. The Electrical team is a little bit ahead of the Utility team. They've neutralized the inflationary effects of materials, but to stop at neutralizing the dollars leaves a percentage margin headwinds. So the - and the inefficiencies of the supply chain costs. But a strong quarter there for our Electrical team in getting price and satisfying customer demand to drive an increase in profit. On page eight, we have the Utility Solutions results for the quarter. You see 8% increase in sales to $600 million for the quarter and a 12% decline in operating profit to just under $100 million. Again, as we unpack that sales number, of plus 8, acquisitions drove 6 points and price drove another 6 points. So our volumes there were down 4 points. Now let's talk a little bit about two different elements of the Utility Solutions segment. First is the T&D component area, comprised of the transmission and distribution component business, Hubbell Power Systems legacy business, as well as the gas distribution, that last mile of components in the natural gas area. Both of those business lines experiencing very strong orders, sales of double-digit growth, and yet the orders were even higher than that, and we were actually building backlog there and the labor shortages, both at hourly and supervisory levels continuing to impact ultimately the capacity as well as some component shortages, material shortages. Notable area would be resins going into our enclosures products. On the Communications & Controls, again, on the - you've got the Aclara side, which is the advanced metering infrastructure and the meters themselves, as well as the distribution automation products. The Aclara order book continues to grow very handsomely. We've had $200 million of orders a quarter all year. That's been steady and improving, showing a very healthy demand. Aclara team not able to satisfy all that, as the chip shortage affects their ability to assemble the final products and get those shipped out. So the operating profit, the price that we've gotten there of 6 points still is resulting in a drag relative to the material headwinds of about 3 points, that's similar to the drag that we experienced in the second quarter. And again, the team keeps getting price, it's about equal to the incremental inflation. So it's waiting to catch up and we're anticipating a big fourth quarter of pricing in Utility. And that combines with some of the inefficiencies coming from lower volumes and supply chain to drive down the profit in that area. So we thought it would be useful to put together a picture on Page nine of our full year outlook. And you can see that on the sales side, we've raised and tightened the sales range up to 12% to 13%. We're anticipating 5 points of price for the year, which implies close to double digits in the fourth quarter. That's an important exit point, I think, and the acquisition has given us 3 to 4 points there. The earnings per share at $8.30 to $8.50 in recognition of third quarter performance and what we expect in the fourth quarter. And cash flow, we're anticipating to be around 100% of adjusted net earnings, and that's in recognition of the increased investment in receivables and inventory that we anticipate. On the right side, we wanted to share with you some of the actions we've been taking and try to illustrate why we think we're setting ourselves up for a strong '22. And it starts with the inflation we've experienced on materials and inbound freight. That's been at about a 15% clip. And you see a significant drag of 6 points to our margin from that. The response has been to pull price, and as that's progressed quarterly from about 1 point in the first quarter to 3 points in the second to 7 points in the third to 10 points in the fourth, we're seeing very good stick rates. We're very confident in those price increases. And so you see that we clawed back $200 million in price. But having - ending the year with a 10% pull and a 5% average, you can see the kind of magnitude of price, cost tailwind that we're anticipating next year. And again, that's as soon as cost would be to flatten out. You certainly can see the wraparound of price that we'll get. The next headwind comes from cost inefficiencies and productivity, where some of the shortages of labor and materials causes us to be inefficient and spend more money. And we've overcome that with our productivity and restructuring activities. This green bar up 100 basis points, has got contributions both from savings from investments we made last year and spending at a slightly lower level this year. Just to remind you, we had about $30-ish million of restructuring spend last year, we're anticipating around $50 million this year. And then volume at the end where our products are going to earn their fair share, but we also think we can supplement that with investment in acquisitions. So for each of the headwinds that's thrown at us of inflation or supply chain disruption, we feel we've got effective management levers to offset those and again, set us up into a positive 2022. So with that, I'll turn it back to Gerben.