Dave Nord
Analyst · JPMorgan. Your line is open
All right. Great. Thanks, Bill. So turn to Page 13, and I'll give you just some of our insights to the extent or the way we're looking at some of our end markets. You start at the upper right on the pie there, the electrical transmission and distribution markets, certainly been resilient for T&D components. Particularly on the transmission side, has continued investment in renewable. Renewable generations, creating the need for transmission projects. But T&D is not immune to some macro near term, but all of the secular drivers around grid hardening, aging infrastructure certainly remain intact and support our continued multiyear runway for solid growth. Moving down to the Utility, comms and meters. Obviously, as Gerben talked about some headwinds near-term from restrictions on installations, which require our access to homes and buildings other than in emergency situations. Longer term, Utilities continue to demand smart grid technology that modernize the grid. So I think there's plenty of opportunity there. On the gas distribution side, gas utilities continue to replace their aging infrastructure, but replacing components in the system that carry gas from main to meter can be limited in some cases near-term because of that same access issue in homes and buildings. On the oil side, markets continue to be weak there with limited activity off an early low base. Obviously, that's a good margin business for us, but fortunately, it's a smaller proportion of our business. So I think we can navigate through that. The residential side, as Gerben mentioned, some bright spots in the second quarter. We've seen some very strong results on the housing front, and we've experienced some of that on the e-commerce and retail side. On the industrial, we continue to see weakness in the heavy with some pockets of resilience in the light industrial. Second half trends will obviously be dependent on timing and shape of the economic recovery. And of course, last is the nonresidential markets continue to follow broader economy on a lag. And while we've seen some projects get completed, some that were put on hold as things were shutdown, we're certainly cautious on the near-term outlook there, but the level of activity seems to be positive, okay? I mean what does all that mean? Well, let's turn to Page 14, and we can talk about our outlook and the framework. We reported our first quarter results in April. We withdrew our annual guidance. There was so much uncertainty around the COVID situation. But as we've navigated the second quarter with a strong execution and at least what now looks like, there'll be some stabilization in volumes even though they're down as well as some other supply chain dynamics. We thought it would be helpful to not only walk you through our framework for expectations, but how we're managing through this and also give you our best thinking on how that rolls up into an annual earnings per share range. So certainly, on the macroeconomic environment remains volatile. And these expectations come with the obvious caveats, which a higher level of uncertainty around them, but as of now, we see ourselves being able to deliver in the range of $7 to $7.25 EPS on an adjusted basis. We look - talked about the markets on the prior page, continue to expect pressure in Electrical end markets for the balance of the second half. We are seeing stabilization in orders with sequential improvement from May to June and into July. But certainly, no tangible signs that might support a V-shape recovery, but at least there's improvement. Orders so far in July are down about 15%, and our base case is that the balance of third quarter looks somewhat similar for what we've seen on the order front. Certainly, opportunity to - if things continue to improve, but we're going to plan conservatively right now. On the Utility Solutions side, we exited the second quarter with a strong backlog position in our Power Systems business. Continue to see the resilience in the T&D demand, particularly transmission. Gives us confidence that we can see some modest growth here in the third quarter. Aclara is a little more dependent on when some of their projects can get fully ramped back up. And we continue to see delays in certain projects, as we've talked about. These are moderating our base case assumes, we'll probably see low double-digit declines here in the third quarter. Overall, our third quarter base case is down about 10%. On the margin front, our facilities are all currently operational. We certainly have learned a lot and continue to navigate through pockets of challenge, whether it be an individual test positive that may require a 24-hour, a 72-hour or in worst case, 14-hour quarantine. And so there's pockets. We've been able to manage that into specific - for the most part, specific cells or departments. And so we've navigated it. But we continue to expect some productivity challenges as we manage through it. And we - but we expect the inefficiencies we experienced in the second quarter to improve in the second half. We certainly see sustainable savings from the restructuring actions we've taken. And expect the full year savings of $25 million, which is above the $20 million we were targeting as of last quarter as we've taken some additional actions in the second quarter. We also expect price cost to remain positive in the second half, although at a more modest level than the first half as we - we're going to lap some of our prior year price compares. The compensation reductions that Bill and Gerben referred to that we took in the second quarter, obviously, won't repeat in the second half. We've committed to take those off and get back to normal. We also expect some of the operating costs, which we think were at unnaturally low levels in the second quarter to return. However, we do have control over some of these costs, and we've taken some actions to appropriately manage based on our order patterns and volume level. The net of all these moving part is, we expect our decremental margins to tick back up into the 25% to 30% range in the second half, still below our gross margin levels. And on the cash front, we're actively managing our CapEx, but with a strong liquidity position, as Bill referred. Having seen the benefit of our recent investments in productivity, we continue to invest in things like automation within our factories to drive future productivity. In terms of working capital, continue to manage our inventories down prudently. Obviously, one of the things we've learned in the supply chain challenges is to make sure some of the critical components we might have to have some additional inventory, but we're contemplating that in our working capital management. So the net of all of that is, we expect free cash flow for 2020 to be at the $500 million or better than we generated in 2019. So all in all, I think we're all very pleased. I have to tell you that when you think about where we were 90 days ago, we were just heading into the storm. We had been through most of April, but the worst was yet to come as we found out in May. It's a daily challenge to slog your way through it. But I couldn't be more proud of how the organization, the leadership team, all the way down to the factory floor has really navigated that. And I think that's what gives us confidence that despite the volatile markets, we're going to find our way and fight our way through to perform at the levels and execute at the levels that we are expecting. So with that, let me turn it over to the operator, open it up to Q&A.