Earnings Labs

Hubbell Incorporated (HUBB)

Q3 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 22, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Tracy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Hubbell Incorporated Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. Ms. Maria Lee, you may begin your conference. Maria R. Lee - Vice President-Corporate Strategy & Investor Relations: Thanks, Tracy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm joined today by our President and Chief Executive Officer, Dave Nord, and our Chief Financial Officer, Bill Sperry. Hubbell announced its third quarter results for 2015 this morning. The press release and earnings slide materials have been posted to the Investors section of our website at www.hubbell.com. Please note that our comments this morning may include statements related to the expected future results of our company and are forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Therefore, please note the discussion of forward-looking statements in our press release and consider it incorporated by reference into this call. In addition, comments may also include non-GAAP financial measures. Those measures are reconciled to the comparable GAAP measures and are included in the press release and the earnings slide materials. We also call you attention to the Other legends in the presentation, which note among other things that this presentation is not an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or solicitation of any vote or approval. Now let me turn the call over to Dave. David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. Thanks, Maria. Welcome, everybody. Thanks for joining us today. As…

Operator

Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Rich Kwas with Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.

Rich M. Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning. David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Rich.

Rich M. Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Wanted to – on the harsh and hazardous, where do you – Dave, where do you think your cost structure is at this point and how do we think about that as it relates to the price of oil today. Are you right-sized for this sort of price environment or does the restructuring contemplated for next year include another adjustment to get that to an appropriate demand level? David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah, Rich, I'd say, we're closer to right-size. I think from a staffing perspective, I think we're much closer. I think the thing that we're still evaluating is on our fixed cost structure, particularly around facilities, and I've talked about in the past, that's a more sensitive, critical decision because, you got to make sure that you are really planning for the future growth that will occur in this business, but that's – that's the one side. I wouldn't tell you that there is a bias that that's likely to occur, but that's something that we – could happen as we continue to evaluate. And depending on where the market ultimately settles out, okay.

Rich M. Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

So, is the assumption that the price of oil goes back up and I think you said you're right-size – you're sized for $60 oil last quarter, is that closer to $50 now or how are you guys thinking about it over the next couple of years? David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: We've been working toward sizing ourselves toward $50 to $55. And we still have a little more work to do there, but I wouldn't say that there is a big investment to get to that size, okay.

Rich M. Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. All right. And then on the transmission piece, you've seen some warnings from other companies you've cited delays. How do you feel about the growth for next year, you're calling utility up 1% to 2% in this landscape, what's the comfort level around that, I should say confidence level around that given some of the comments coming from others here recently? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, Rich, our project list that we're quoting and working with our utility customers on shows us that despite some of this push out that we've seen recently that we should expect to see some growth. So our team has some confidence that we'll have some T growth (38:20) next year.

Rich M. Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then finally on the non-res piece, so the starts data, you referenced weak during the quarter, we just got ABI that would seem to be a little bit better of a forward indicator that bounced back in September, Dave you cited that September got better but how do you – broadly speaking, but how do you look at the starts data in the context of ABI at this point? You're assuming decent growth again next year, but what are the risks to that either way? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, I mean I think when we look at the way the public and private sectors are spending money, Rich. The strength of the private sector is obviously really helping to drive the non-res. The public is positive. Places like education on the public side are showing some decent signs of strength I think. And as we look across our businesses with non-res really affects both our C&I side of our lighting business as well as some of the commercial construction side of our – the rest of our Electrical business. We see some decent expectations for next year, and so that's how we're planning.

Rich M. Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

Thanks, Bill. Just one quick one, on restructuring, the $0.25 to $0.35 contemplated for next year. What type of environment do you have to take another significant chunk of restructuring going out above and beyond that? I know you do – you typically have done restructuring every year, it's been fairly modest up until the last year or so, but, in what type of environment, would you have to really scale that up again or above and beyond, what you're contemplating? Basically, I'm trying to get at where your cost structure you feel, your comfort where your cost structure is as we head in, look out a year from now? David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Rich, I would say, I mean, that, to have a big step up in that, would have to really be a broad-based recession, somewhat similar to what we saw in 2008, 2009. But, there's a lot that we are just trying to do in the normal course, I mean, certainly staffing levels if volumes fall down. On the fixed cost structure, there is certainly a lot more, if I could do everything overnight, there's a lot of things that we would do, but we're not going to do those. One, because they're not critical. Two, because we can't afford them, and three, importantly, we wouldn't be able to execute them effectively. So, we're doing that over the normal course and we have been, but – so I would look more at the $0.25 to $0.35 first and foremost, it doesn't go to zero in 2017 it goes to something less. So if you take $0.25 to $0.35 and you put another, say $0.15 to $0.25, you look at it on that kind of basis, but the more we do next year, the more benefit we get the year after just like we've seen this year. So I think there could be, that's why we've kind of moved it up from what we originally thought it might be 20% to 25% now. It could be in a $0.25 to $0.35, just because we're identifying more opportunities to adjust our cost structure not just for market weakness but also to make sure that in some areas we have a cost structure that makes us more market competitive, okay.

Rich M. Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities LLC

Analyst

True. All right. That's helpful, appreciate it. Thanks Dave and Bill.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe at Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open. Nigel Coe - Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC: Oh, thanks. Good morning. Just wanted to, I mean, first of all, appreciate all the color in the slides and I forget the look at 2016, obviously recognizing it's a preliminary view. Just in terms of coming to 2016 expectations, how did you derive that, was that more top down or did you triangulate with customers and your leaders? David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: It's mostly top down at this point, looking at some of the market indicators that we would typically rely on, but not just taking what those market indicators, trying to apply what has been our historical experience. But that's sort of the process that we take on an early look. Then we're going through a process over the next – as part of the difference between our preliminary look and what we ultimately end up in January between now and then. We're working very closely with our leaders as well as with our customers and doing a much deeper dive to validate whether that is true or not. Obviously, with the concern that we don't want to be too optimistic. On the other hand, we want to make sure we're not being too conservative and missing market opportunities. So it really works on both sides and you talk to our management team and they would tell you that that's exactly the conversation we have on both ends of the spectrum. And I spend a lot of time talking to customers over the next several months just to see how they are seeing things as sort of my independent check of what's happening in the business.…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn at Oppenheimer. Your line is now open. Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Yep, can you hear me? David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes, Chris. Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Great. Good morning. So on the single class, I'm just wondering, how that plays into the scope of deals that you might contemplate, if that's opening up how you kind of view and process the pipeline and potential pipeline for acquisitions? David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Is your question about capacity or size? Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Well, yeah, in the sense that maybe with a single class that shares become more of a currency option than historically? David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I mean, certainly that's a – that would be a consideration, although we continue to view our M&A activity around our core businesses and our typical bolt-ons with larger and we've talked about continually larger being in the $300 million to $600 million range. I don't think those would qualify as ones where our shares would be a worthwhile currency in that size transaction. Certainly, if there were bigger opportunities that would obviously be a consideration. But – and that – I won't say it's never on the table, but there is even fewer of those transactions than there are as we go up the scale, so. Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Okay. And then oil and gas, as you look at orders backlog and revenue run rates. Just wondering if you're – you think that market's finding a bottom. I think that the down 10% for next year suggests that maybe it is on a sequential basis and the first half could absorb that down 10% to be comparable with what you're seeing in the second half, but maybe if you could talk about that specifically? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: It might be even a little more pronounced to the first quarter, Chris, rather than the first half, where we hadn't seen the kind of declines yet in the first quarter that we experienced in the next two quarters of this year, mostly because of some of the project stickiness that just kind of carried over. So, I think the toughest comp for us next year is Q1, but I don't disagree with your characterization of, kind of a sequential – we've talked about our expectation of a U. And I think we're starting to feel sequentially we're getting towards that U and that's how we see it. Christopher D. Glynn - Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (Broker): Cool. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Tusa of JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey, guys. Good morning. David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning, Steve.

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

So, just some good details on, helpful on 2016. So, I guess the savings basically offset the restructuring to a degree. So, you've got that kind of $0.45 cost tailwind coming in next year. I guess share repos – I don't know, but depending on when you do it, maybe $0.20 to $0.25 of benefit, increase investments I get, mix I get. On the pension, how – I mean, I think you guys had as high as a maybe a $0.10 to $0.15 headwind in 2012 or something. The pension headwind, is it really that material for you guys, is it more than a nickel for you guys, if you just snap the line today? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, it's too early to know what it will ultimately be, but given some of the asset returns relative to depending on what happens to rates, you got both variables that are a little bit hard to predict. If you snapped it today, it would not be as much as what you said.

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. So like a nickel or something? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, let's say that ballpark.

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

And then – and you're saying the acquisitions are dilutive next year? David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: To margins. William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, that's just the OP percent, not to... David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Not to dollars.

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. So just – so they are still contributory to the overall EPS number, absolute EPS number? So, there... William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Operating margin drivers, yeah...

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Right, right. So there's not a lot of like real headwinds here other than maybe like, I mean, are you most nervous about kind of price-cost and obviously the growth variable, but it seems like you've got a lot of stuff to get you very easily to double-digit, pretty solid strong double-digit earnings growth next year, north of 15%, if you're looking at the growth you're expecting I mean, that's just the math on it. Is there something else that you're really worried about out there other than maybe the deflation dynamic? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Well, just don't forget about mix, Steve, right. So as long as non-res and res markets are outgrowing utility and industrial that will create a mix headwind that we have to overcome...

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Will you still, in that environment on core volume, be able to convert at a, I mean, reasonable level or will it be negative conversion, I mean how bad is that mix? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: We don't....

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

If you grow 2%, you know what I mean? Can you still convert that into operating profit growth at 2% in that kind of mix environment. I would think you'll be able to do that right? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: And again, we – I want to be careful not to go to doing the 2016 math with you, but I do like talking about the drivers, just so we're understanding them. And I do think you're thinking about mix the right way, and that as the growth rates – the growth rate differentials moderate, and some of the restructuring that we've been doing, helps close some of the gap on some of the margin differential. But the fact is, there's still a sizable margin differential on those businesses. And so, that creates a headwind that we have to manage. And that's just on the list, is all I'm saying.

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Yeah, okay. I mean that's totally understandable. And then, sorry, I didn't quite get the answer on the non-resi stuff. I mean, you kind of said that, you were encouraged, but then, it was kind of weaker in August and September, I think, you referenced some Dodge data, obviously the starts is weak. Maybe, if you could just clarify, I mean, are you guys as bullish, more bullish or less bullish on non-res than when we last talked in July? David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: I'd say, we're less bullish.

Charles Stephen Tusa - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Got it. All right. Thank you very much. David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sprague at Vertical Research. Your line is now open.

Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, gents. David G. Nord - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer: Hi, Jeff.

Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Hey. Can we just spend a little bit more time on price-cost. So your comments about it going negative next year, does that – I mean, just give us a little bit of color on both sides of the equation, I guess. I would assume, you're looking for some more price erosion, but are there some cost headwinds that are creeping in and working against you there too. Maybe on steel particularly? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, I think, Jeff, the basic trajectory during 2015 has been a decline in some of those core commodities that we buy; steel, you're right; copper, you're right; aluminum, you're right. And the way that our pricing mechanisms work, there tends to be a lag of a quarter or two in terms – and so as commodity prices come down and our inputs go down, that actually tends to create some margin favorability because the price that would come down in sympathy to that, it just lags that by a little bit. So, I think what we're describing is an inflection point. As those prices start to firm, they don't even need to rise, they just need to firm. And exactly as you said, the price continues kind of downward for another quarter or two. And so, then that flips and becomes a headwind. And it gets more dramatic if commodities actually inflect upward and then you start to create a more significant headwind. So, we'll have to see what the outlook for those key commodities are, but you're right to be focusing on steel for us, that's a big one.

Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Well, how much of your pricing is actually mechanically tied to cost as opposed to your customers just expecting price relief as cost comes down. And I ask that in the spirit of we're hearing in the channel that – and maybe it's wishful thinking, but people are trying to raise price right now. What's going on there and what's your view on that? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. We have a mix of those things, some of the pricing is tied to input deflators, but mostly it's negotiated, which everybody knows the cost of metals and stuff, so.

Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Right. William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: We're all sharing the same information.

Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Right. Should we assume that your 2015 results reflect $0.10 or $0.15 of restructuring savings from the $0.45 that you're doing this year. And therefore, that plus... William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: No. I'd say the bottom end of your range not the top.

Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Right. And should we expect to get some fraction of that $0.25 to $0.35 in new spending in 2016 as benefit in 2016, a half, a third or is there any way to think about that? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, if we can get the projects in, in the first half I think you maybe start to see some of the benefit in the second half. So a little bit depends on the sequencing and timing of how we get things implemented.

Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

And then just on buyback, given that you're forced out of the market by the share collapse, if the deals are not kind of ready in your sights there when we get on the other side of that, should we expect that you'd move quite actively on the repurchase, as quickly as you possibly can? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah. I think you should expect that, Jeff.

Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Yeah. All right. And then just one last one here I guess. Could you just – maybe you can reiterate because I'm not sure I got it all. But the color on lighting in the quarter and then I don't think you said anything about LED penetration specifically. But how did the individual pieces of lighting move around and where is the LED number now? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, so LED penetration is well up, over 50% overall. The penetration when you focus on C&I is in the 60%s, at resi it's lagging and kind of in the early stages of adoption I would say.

Jeffrey T. Sprague - Vertical Research Partners LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Wood at Macquarie Group. Your line is now open. Mike Wood - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Hi. Thanks for fitting me in. Just a question in terms of more color on your industrial outlook, that appears to be the biggest kind of trend change with what you're experiencing in recent activity. Wondering if you could just give some more commentary in terms of your outlook there for the light industrial, heavy industrial and perhaps if you're seeing the same issues as last quarter when you highlighted some of the regional weakness in the oil and gas regions of the country? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: Yeah, I think, Mike, our outlook is reasonably cautious around industrial, flat to 2% and we're trying to indicate for you that we see some differential between some of the heavier sides of that industrial where we see some risk and the lighter side of that industrial where there may be a little bit of opportunity. Mike Wood - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: And in terms of HVT, I haven't heard you comment on that, are you seeing any activity in the market or is that grouped in with the heavy industrial? William R. Sperry - Chief Financial Officer & Senior Vice President: We're still kind of trough – at the trough of that cycle. So it's – we're – we haven't commented because it hasn't added a big delta either way for us. Mike Wood - Macquarie Capital (USA), Inc.: Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

At this time, I turn the call back over to Maria Lee. Maria R. Lee - Vice President-Corporate Strategy & Investor Relations: This concludes today's call. Steve and I will be available following the call for questions and thanks again for joining us. I know it's a busy morning so we want to make sure you can get on your other calls as well. Thank you.