Teo Nee Chuan
Analyst · Billy Ng of Bank of America
Thank you, Xinxin, and good morning, everyone. As Ji Qi mentioned earlier, this dynamic will have to accelerate the lodging industry's consolidations. As shown on Slide 22, at the end of Q3, we had a total now of 6,507 hotels with 634,087 of rooms in operations, an increase of 26% from Q3 2019. Excluding the 23,322 rooms of Deutsche Hospitality hotel rooms, at the end of Q3, Legacy Huazhu also recorded a room inventory growth of 21%, with 610,765 rooms at the end of Q3. Our China operation has been steadily recovering since Q2 this year. We achieved a RevPAR close to [12%] in September and October and more than 9% in November. However, we need to remain cautious during the coming winter as we have seen some resurgence of COVID-19 in selected cities in China that could potentially impact our recovery in December and for the next couple of months into 2021. Our European business has also been recovering steadily in Q2 up to late September. However, the second wave of the pandemic in Europe since late September has impacted a number of countries in Europe. For example, a number of countries imposed lockdowns from the beginning of November that causes a decline in hotel occupancy. I will share more at the later part of my presentation. Our system-wide hotel turnover recorded a positive 7% of increase from CNY 9.9 billion in Q3 last year to CNY 10.5 billion this year. Excluding DH, legacy Huazhu hotel turnover would have declined by 1% to CNY 9.8 billion. We will have separate discussions on our blended RevPAR for legacy Huazhu and DH because the pandemic impacted these 2 regions at a different timing with different effects. Move on to Page 23. As mentioned by Jin Hui earlier, our blended RevPAR up for legacy Huazhu has been recovering steadily and has reached approximately 100% in September compared to 2019. However, for the entire of Q3, our RevPAR still declined by 17% to RMB 179. The ADR increased by 11% to CNY 218, and now occupancy decreased by 6 percentage points to 82% in Q3. With the recovery of RevPAR in China, we are glad to report that we have reported a positive EBITDA of more than CNY 850 million in Q3 for our Chinese business as compared CNY 137 million in Q2. Turn to Page 24. In Q3, DH recorded 52% decline in blended RevPAR to EUR 35. This reflects a gradual recovery since July as compared to more than an [18%] decline in Q2. DH blended RevPAR declined to EUR 35 in Q3 compared to EUR 75 -- EUR 74 last year. DH ADR decreased by 5% to EUR 93, while occupancy decreased by 50 percentage point to 38% from 76% last year. Subsequently in Q4, due to the second outbreak and lockdown in certain countries in Europe, our RevPAR dropped further in October and beginning part of November and started to recover in the later part of November. Please see our financial results on Slide 25. Our net revenues increased by 3% in Q3 year-over-year, better than our previous guidance of 0% to 2%. Excluding DH, legacy Huazhu revenue dropped by 10.5 percentage, within our guidance of 10% to 12%. Breaking down the revenue growth in Q3. Our net revenue from our leased and operated hotels increased by 2% year-over-year and net revenue from our manachised hotels increased by 6% year-over-year. Excluding DH, our leased revenue would have declined by 18%, while our manachised revenue would have increased by 4%. In Q3, revenue contributed by our asset-light manachised business model accounted for 32% in total revenue, 1 percentage point from 31% in Q3 2019. However, if we exclude revenue from DH, which mainly comprise of revenue from leased and operated hotels, legacy Huazhu's revenue contribution from the manachised business model would have improved by 5 percentage points to 36%. We expect the contribution from our manachised business will continue to increase going forward. The contribution from DH in the midscale -- mid and upscale hotel segment, as shown on Slide 26, in Q3, the revenue from mid and upscale hotels increased by 9% to CNY 1.9 billion. Excluding DH, revenue from mid to upscale hotels would have reduced by 16% to CNY 1.5 billion. Economy and midscale hotels have been the bedrock of legacy Huazhu's business. These 2 segments contributed a total of 96% of our revenue. Including DH, the revenue split would have been: economy, 39%; midscale, 49%; and upscale, 12%, respectively. Let's now turn to Page 27 for the operating profit and loss. The reported loss from operation was CNY 200 million compared to operating income of CNY 703 million last year. Due to a strong recovery trend in our China business, legacy Huazhu recorded operating profit of CNY 523 million while legacy Huazhu -- legacy DH recorded an operating loss of CNY 723 million [ph] in Q3. Excluding DH, hotel operating cost was CNY 1.94 billion compared to CNY 1.95 billion in 2019. The higher hotel operating costs mainly was due to the higher rental expenses. It was due to increase in rental expenses, depreciation and amortizing costs, consumables that was related to several new upscale leased and operated hotels that had started business in this year. In addition, higher other operating costs also included a provision for impairment for assets related to terminated leased and operated hotels of CNY 15 million. As mentioned during our earnings call in March, we took this opportunity to mobilize our team to improve our cost structures, including but not limited to streamlining the office headcounts. The effects have gradually been reflected in our selling and general administrative costs. Excluding DH, we recorded a lower selling and general and administrative expenses and other operating income of CNY 230 million in Q3 compared to last year of CNY 381 million. In particular, the selling expenses were lower by CNY 12 million. General and administrative expenses were lower by CNY 42 million compared to last year. In addition, we recorded a high amount of tax refunds of CNY 100 million on income tax previously paid in 2019. Including DH, the selling and administrative expenses other operating income was CNY 832 million. The amount is significantly higher than CNY 206 million recorded in Q2 2020, because in Q3, we recorded a goodwill impairment of CNY 437 million related to DH due to the prolonged timing of recovery in our European business. In addition, DH recorded a subsidy income and insurance compensation received due to business disruptions totaling CNY 137 million in Q2 that has not been recurred in Q3. As also mentioned by our -- during our earnings call presentation in the previous quarters, we will slow down our pace in leased, operated -- hotel openings for our upscale hotels and focus more on development of our manachised business. This has been reflected in the lower pre-operating expenses compared to Q3 2019 and Q2 2020. Turn to Page 28. Our adjusted EBITDA declined to CNY 184 million compared to CNY 901 million last year. Our adjusted net income declined from CNY 434 million to negative of CNY 218 million. Excluding DH, legacy Huazhu recorded an adjusted EBITDA of CNY 853 million, approximately 5 percentage points lower compared to Q3 2019, and net income of CNY 476 million, approximately 10% higher than 2019. Due to the impact of COVID-19, we made a provision on the group related to DH acquisition totaling CNY 437 million. This has been reflected in both our adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net loss of CNY 218 million under legacy Huazhu -- legacy DH. The non-GAAP pro forma adjustment mentioned on this page include the unrealized gain or losses from the fair value changes of equity securities related to our investors [indiscernible]. Let's move on to the update on the financial impact from the COVID-19 onto our Chinese business on Page 30. As mentioned by Jin Hui, our China operation has been recovering since the last few quarters. We managed to generate CNY 1.2 billion of operating cash flow in Q3. We expect our revenue to continue to recover in Q4. However, we need to be cautious for the resurgence of COVID-19 during this winter. During the last few quarters, we managed to first secure the approval from the syndication loans to amend our financial covenants in April. With this amendment, we raised $500 million of convertible bond in May, which helped to support Huazhu share price. With the immediate liquidity risk anticipated, our stock price improved and we reached CNY 5.2 billion in equity from our Hong Kong secondary listings in September. As mentioned in our previous call, we had a convertible note totaling $425 million that provided investors a right to put the notes back to Huazhu on November 2, 2020, should the convertible price is below $100 million [ph]. All the liquidity improvement measures mentioned above helped to improve the investor conference -- the confidence in the convertible bond of $425 million. Consequently, we only received a $6,000 of redemption request from the convertible bond investment on November 2, 2020. This convertible bond will now -- not to be due for repayment until the end of 2022. I'm also happy to report that Huazhu's current share price is currently above the conversion price of this 2017 convertible notes. With the proceeds raised and our operating cash flows, we had repaid a number of our bank borrowings, including the full repayment of the revolving facilities of $500 million. This will not only allow us to reduce the interest payment on our bank loans, but also have the flexibility to be drawn down in the future when the need arises. We will also use a portion of these proceeds to repay CNY 900 million of the Chinese bank borrowings with higher interest rates. Helped by recovery in Chinese market and also our cost-cutting, we have recorded a positive EBITDA since May. At the end of June, we had a cash balance of CNY 6.6 billion and unutilized bank facilities in China of CNY 4.1 billion to finance our operations. Coming to the financial impact of COVID-19 on Deutsche Hospitality on Page 31. At the peak of COVID-19 in Europe at end March, early April, the local government has requested close to 3/4 or 73% of these hotels to contain the spread of COVID-19 virus. Since May, European government has gradually reopened the economy following some early success in the containment of this pandemic. In this connection, we saw a steady recovery of occupancy up to 42% at the end of September. However, this recovery trend had been reinterrupted by the second wave of COVID-19 in certain countries in Europe. The German government has instructed a lockdown from early November to early January. In this connection, we have seen the RevPAR to drop below EUR 10. In November, we have, however, seen the occupancy and RevPAR trend to improve back to EUR 16 at the last week of November. We have restarted the negotiation with landlords to defer the rental repayments. In addition, we have also put our staff on temporary furlough and froze our headcounts and reduced discretionary spending and capital expenditure. We have also secured long-term financial support from the local German banks totaling EUR 38 million to support DH operations. Turning to Page 32 on guidance. We expect our net revenue for 2020 Q4 to grow by 0% to 3% or declined by 4% to 7%, excluding Deutsche Hospitality. We maintain our gross soft opening target of 1,600 to 1,800 in 2020. On the other hand, we estimated our hotel closure to be in the range of 550 to 600. With that, please open the floor for questions. Thank you.