Humberto P. Alfonso
Analyst · Goldman Sachs
Thank you, J.P., and good morning, everyone. Net sales and adjusted earnings per share diluted from operations for the full-year 2011 exceeded the initial ranges we communicated at the beginning of last year. Solid efforts by sales, marketing, operations and finance resulted in a good retail execution and another year of market share gains. Overall, we're pleased with our financial results and U.S. marketplace performance, as well as the progress we've made in key international markets. Fourth quarter consolidated net sales of $1.57 billion increased 5.7% versus the prior year. As expected, the increase was driven primarily by net price realization benefit of 5.9%. In addition, volume sequentially improved 0.4 points from last quarter, slightly greater than our expectations. New product introductions in the U.S. and international markets, along with seasonal volume gains, were partially offset by core volume declines in line with our price elasticity models. The impact of unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates in the quarter was about 0.6 points. Fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share diluted of $0.70 increased 15%, primarily due to price realization, supply chain productivity and lower advertising, which more than offset the impact of higher input costs and additional marketing-related investments. For the full year, net sales increased 7.2% or 6.9% on a constant currency basis. And we're balanced between volume and net price realization, leading to adjusted earnings per share of $2.82, an increase of 10.6% versus last year. J.P. already provided details related to our marketplace performance. So I will focus on a review of P&L and balance sheet, starting with gross margin. During the fourth quarter, adjusted gross margin was 41.7%. While we achieved our productivity and cost savings goals in the quarter, adjusted gross margin decreased 50 basis points, as productivity and net price realization were more than offset by higher input and supply chain costs. This is a greater decline than previously expected. Specifically, greater-than-expected fourth quarter volume requirements resulted in higher commodity costs than we had forecasted. For the fourth quarter and full year, total input costs were unfavorable, about $45 million and $150 million. In addition, the impacts from year-end LIFO inventory and higher discounts and allowances were greater than our previous estimates. The higher discounts and allowances primarily reflected a packaging change in our full chocolate packaged candy presentation as we swapped out harvesting, packaging and substituted with additional Halloween-focused packaging, which did not resonate as well with consumers. For the full-year 2011, adjusted gross margin was 42.4% versus 42.8% in 2010, a decline of 40 basis points. Higher net price realization and productivity gains were more than offset by higher input costs. Fourth quarter adjusted EBIT increased 8.9%, resulting in an adjusted EBIT margin of 16.4%, a 50-basis-point improvement versus last year as lower advertising expense more than offset go-to-market and other employee-related costs. In Q4, advertising declined 13% versus last year. However, our on-air presence was strong as the fourth quarter of 2010 included a significant step-up investment. The decline was slightly greater than our earlier estimate as we shifted spending to invest in global selling capabilities and our Insights Driven Performance initiative. As a result, advertising expense for the full year increased about 6%. Adjusted EBIT for the year increased 8.3%, with adjusted EBIT margin up 20 basis points to 17.9% from 17.7%. The increase was driven by solid net sales growth, partially offset by higher input and supply chain costs and investments in SM&A. Now let me provide a brief update on our international business. Our international markets outside of the U.S. and Canada generated more meaningful sales growth during the quarter. Excluding Canada, international fourth quarter reported net sales increased double digits on a percentage basis versus last year, driven by our focus markets, Mexico, China, Brazil and India. On a constant currency basis, partially driven by seasonality in gifting, fourth quarter net sales in Brazil increased more than 40%, about 30% in China and 15% in Mexico. For the full-year 2011, net sales in our businesses outside of the U.S. and Canada increased close to 25%. Our commitment to investing in these markets continues to drive solid top line growth, enabling our brands to gain momentum and greater recognition among consumers. Fourth quarter interest expense decreased, coming in at $21.3 million versus $27.6 million in the prior period, reflecting the bond tender offer costs in the fourth quarter of 2010. For the year, interest expense was in line with expectations, totaling $92.2 million versus $96.4 million a year ago. In 2012, we expect higher interest expense of approximately $95 million to $105 million, primarily due to higher interest rates in some of our international businesses and increases in the company's finance lease obligations. The adjusted tax rate for the fourth quarter was 32.2%, down 40 basis points versus year ago due to an increase in domestic production, as well as a mix of income among our various U.S. and international businesses. For the full year, the tax rate was 34.8%, down 40 basis points versus a year ago and within the range of our previous estimate. In 2012, we expect the tax rate to be about the same as the 2011 annual rate. However, the rate will be about 36% in Q1 and 2 and about 34% in Q3 and Q4. In the fourth quarter of 2011, weighted average shares outstanding on a diluted basis were 229.1 million versus 230.8 million shares in 2010, leading to adjusted EPS of $0.70 per share diluted from operations, an increase of 14.8% versus year ago. For the year, shares outstanding were 229.9 million versus approximately 230.3 million shares in 2010. Adjusted EPS diluted for the year was $2.82, an increase of 10.6%. Before moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow, I'd like to share some details regarding a change in our pension cost disclosures in 2012. Similar to a number of other S&P 500 companies, we're going to exclude non-service-related pension expenses in our defined benefit pension plans from adjusted earnings. These non-service-related expenses include the amortization of actuarial gains and losses and interest on participants' balances, which are offset by expected earnings on pension assets. Such expenses can vary significantly from year-to-year based on actuarial assumptions, asset performance and interest rates. We believe that excluding these costs and including only service-related costs better reflects the ongoing operating costs to our business, given the well-funded status of our plans that have been closed to new entrants since 2008. As a result, we'll exclude them from adjusted earnings beginning in 2012. On this basis, 2011 and 2010 full-year adjusted earnings per share would have been $0.01 and $0.02 higher, respectively. In 2011, the actual return on pension plan assets was below our assumptions, and interest rates declined, resulting in higher non-service-related pension expenses in 2012. Therefore, our reported outlook reflects non-service-related pension expenses of $19 million or $0.05 per share diluted. This amount is excluded from our 2012 adjusted earnings outlook. For your modeling purposes, details reflecting this change from 2006 to 2011 are available on the company's website within the Investor Relations section. Let me also note that going forward, the company will exclude the impact of M&A-related deal costs from its adjusted earnings per share diluted. We believe excluding these will provide investors a better understanding of the underlying profitability of the business. Therefore, our reported outlook of $2.79 to $2.89 per share diluted for 2012 includes nonrecurring acquisition, closing and integration costs related to the Brookside acquisition of $0.04 to $0.05 per share diluted. Now turning to the balance sheet and the cash flow. At the end of the year, net trading capital increased $115 million versus last year due to an increase in inventory of $115 million, resulting primarily from Project Next Century production transition. Accounts receivable was up $9 million and remains very current. Accounts payable also increased about $9 million. In terms of other specific cash flow items, total company capital expenditures, including software, were $82 million in Q4 and $348 million for the full year. These include Project Next Century capital expenditures of $24 million in Q4 and $179 million for the full year. In 2012, we expect ongoing CapEx to be $215 million to $225 million, excluding Project Next Century capital additions that are expected to be an additional $65 million to $70 million. Therefore, the total CapEx estimate for the company is $280 million to $295 million in 2012. Depreciation and amortization was $58 million in the fourth quarter. This includes accelerated depreciation related to Product Next Century of approximately $12 million. Adjusted operating depreciation and amortization was $47 million in the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2011, depreciation and amortization expense was $216 million, of which accelerated depreciation and amortization was $33 million. Therefore, adjusted operating depreciation and amortization was $183 million. In 2012, we are forecasting total adjusted operating depreciation and amortization of about $195 million to $205 million. Dividends paid during the quarter were $76 million, bringing the full-year total to $304 million. During the fourth quarter, approximately $27 million of our common shares were repurchased to replace shares issued in connection with stock option exercise. We did not acquire any stock in the fourth quarter related to the $250 million outstanding repurchase program. Cash on hand at year-end was $694 million, down $191 million versus year ago due primarily to the aforementioned inventory increase, along with higher capital expenditures and stock option repurchases. As we exit 2011, we are well-positioned to manage the capital needs of the business. Now let me update on Project Next Century program. We are pleased with the progress we're making on the West Hershey plant expansion, which remains on track. The building is essentially complete with the majority of equipment now installed. The startup of multiple production lines began during the fourth quarter and continues to roll out and implement [indiscernible] as expected throughout 2012. The forecast for total project pretax debt charges and nonrecurring project implementation costs is $150 million to $160 million. By 2014, we expect ongoing annual savings to be approximately $65 million to $80 million. These figures are essentially the same as previously communicated. Please see the note in Appendix 1 in today's press release for further details. Let me close by providing some context on our 2012 outlook, starting with some details on the Brookside Foods acquisition. On January 19, 2012, we successfully completed the acquisition and established a project management office to facilitate the integration of the business. If you’ve tasted the Brookside products, I'm sure you'll agree they’re great-tasting snacks with a strong – and a strong addition to the Hershey's portfolio. Hershey will invest to grow the brand in the U.S. and Canada, as well as international markets. In 2012, we'll focus on integration, adding additional manufacturing capacity and market research. Therefore, in 2012, we expect Brookside to generate sales of approximately $90 million at current exchange rates and be neutral to our adjusted earnings. As J.P. outlined, we have initiatives in place that we believe will drive net sales growth across our businesses in 2012. We have planned merchandising and programming events throughout the year and plan to work closely with retail customers and monitor brand performance, given the higher price points for seasonal products. We expect 2012 advertising to increase low double digits on a percentage basis versus the prior year, supporting new product launches in core brands in both the U.S. and in international markets. We'll also invest in new advertising campaigns for the Jolly Rancher and Rolo brands. We're confident of our plans, and excluding Brookside, expect volume to be up for the year, resulting in net sales growth of 5% to 7%, including the impact of foreign currency exchange rates. We have good visibility at this time into our full cost structure, and despite higher input costs in 2012, expect adjusted gross margin to increase about 75 basis points, driven by productivity and cost savings, as well as net price realization. Therefore, we have increased our full-year adjusted earnings per share diluted outlook and including the aforementioned change in pension cost disclosure, expect it to increase 9% to 11%. Before we open up to Q&A, as you work your models, note that due to the timing and full implementation of the price increases, we would expect volume to decline in the first quarter and then improve to be up in the second quarter and for the full year. Despite higher seasonal pricing in Q1, based on investments and merchandising plans, we expect a good start to the year. Thank you for your time this morning, and we will now open it up for your questions.