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Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST)

Q4 2009 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 17, 2010

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Host Hotels and Resorts, Incorporated fourth quarter 2009 earnings conference call. Today’s call is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Executive Vice-President, Mr. Greg Larson. Please go ahead.

Greg Larson

Management

Thank you. Welcome to the Host Hotels and Resorts fourth quarter earnings call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward-looking statements under Federal Securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. Additionally, on today’s call we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information such as FFO, adjusted EBITDA and comparable hotel results. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP information in today’s earnings press release, in our 8-K filed with the SEC and on our website at hosthotels.com. This morning, Ed Walter, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide a brief overview of our fourth quarter results, and then we will describe the current operating environment as well as the company’s outlook for 2010. Larry Harvey, our Chief Financial Officer, will then provide greater detail on our fourth quarter results including regional and market performance. Following their remarks, we will be available to respond to your questions. And now, here is Ed.

Ed Walter

Management

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone. We are very happy to conclude 2009 a year in which we faced exceptional challenges in the travel industry. The difficult year was driven by a weakened economic environment, a declining GDP in business investment as well as increasing unemployment. Despite the difficult economy, we made considerable progress to strengthening our balance sheet and positioning the company to take advantage of future opportunities. We issued 790 million in equity, 920 million in debt, and completed 200 million in asset sales for a total capital raised of about 1.90 billion. These activities allowed us to repay nearly 900 million in near-term maturities as well as provide additional funds for investment. Overall, we believe the actions we took in 2009 materially improved the strength of our balance sheet and positioned us well for 2010. So let’s start by talking about our fourth quarter and full year results, and then I’ll discuss our outlook for 2010. Fourth quarter RevPAR for our comparable hotels decreased 14.6% driven primarily by a decrease in room rate at 12.8%, and a decline in occupancy of 1.3 percentage points. For the full year, comparable RevPAR decreased 19.9% as a result of a 13.5% decrease in average rate combined with a decline in occupancy of 5.4 percentage points compared to where we were in 2008. Our average rates for the year for our comparable hotels was $172 per night and our average occupancy rate was 66%. Food and beverage revenues at our comparable hotels decreased 15.9% for the quarter due to a decline in banquet business resulting from large scale reductions in group business. For the year, food and beverage revenues decline 20.4%. Comparable hotel adjusted operating profit margins decreased 430 basis points in the fourth quarter, 520 basis points for the full year,…

Larry Harvey

Management

Thank you, Ed. Let me start by giving you some detail on our comparable hotel RevPAR results. Looking at the portfolio based on property types, our urban hotels performed the best during the fourth quarter with a RevPAR decline of 13.2%. RevPAR for our resort conference hotels decreased 16.5%, while RevPAR at our suburban and airport hotels fell 16.9% and 18.5% respectively. For the full year, our urban hotels performed the best with a RevPAR decline of 18.5% followed by our suburban hotels, which declined 21.4% and our airport hotels, which fell 21.7%. RevPAR declined 23.3% for our resort conference hotels. Our top performing market for the fourth quarter was New Orleans with a RevPAR increase of 13.8%. Strong in-house group and transient business contributed to an occupancy increase of over seven percentage points. In addition, the success of the Saints increased fan and media interest, resulting in additional demand for home gains. The Tampa market continued its strong performance in 2009 with a RevPAR decline of only 3.1%, primarily due to several national sporting events that drove demand, particularly at our Tampa Waterside Marriot, although average daily rates declined 11.8%. The Orlando World Center Marriot outperformed the portfolio with a RevPAR decline of 6.8% as occupancy increased over 370 basis points, while rates fell 12.8%. The outperformance was driven by stronger leisure demand, group pickup and better than expected attrition. As expected, the Washington DC market continued it’s strong with RevPAR down 8.4% in the fourth quarter. Occupancy was down slightly due to strong government and government related demand while rates fell 8%. RevPAR for Boston fell 9.2% due to a year-over-year increase in occupancy from strong citywide activity offset by a drop in ADR of 10.1%. Additionally, some hotels were able to draw a significant demand in leisure…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Harvey. (Operator Instructions) And we will go first to Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. Chris Woronka – Deutsche Bank: Hi, guys. Quick question on the property tax expectation, what would drive an increase there, is that – I'm guessing it’s based either profits or values, which would seem to be increasing in 2010, is that just local municipalities kind of cranking up the tax rate?

Larry Harvey

Management

Chris, I think you are right. That’s part of it, part of it is that we were able to, one of the reasons our property tax numbers dropped in the fourth quarter as we were successful in some of the appeals that we had mounted over the course of the last couple of years and the benefits of those appeals came into the fourth quarter number. So that was the reason why the fourth quarter was down. As we look at this year we're still going to be contesting in a number of jurisdictions but I think the problem we are running into is that we know that single family values are down throughout a lot of markets. There is a reluctance on the part of most local governments to increase tax rates, especially as it relates to residential customers. And so, even though our value should be lower, at the end of the day we are assuming that we're going to pay a bit more. It should be at that as it was a couple of years ago where we really got caught in historically high cash flows in a declining environment. So we should get to the point where we start to moderate and see this go the other way, but we don’t think we're quite there yet. Chris Woronka – Deutsche Bank: And on the group bookings pace, can you maybe give us just a little bit of color on how that’s trended maybe throughout the fourth quarter and into the first quarter in terms of the, really interested in the booking windows and how short are they, and is there any signs they may begin to lengthen?

Ed Walter

Management

I don’t we're seeing any sign yet that they are beginning to lengthen. I mean, obviously it depends a lot on the size of the group, but I would say as we look back we talk to our asset managers on our properties and then compare this to what we've seen over the course of the last seven to ten years, we are clearly at the short end of the cycle in terms of how closely events are happening compared to when people are booking them. It’s not uncommon to see big events booked within a 30-day timeframe, although I think in general you are seeing the bulk of the business gets booked in a 30- to 60-day timeframe. We’re not yet -- as the occupancy levels that we are seeing in the industry right now, they are still at pretty high level of confidence on the part of most, both that are bookings group events -- they will be able to find a place to have at their hotel. Now, we continue to start to see some strong performance on the occupancy side where we begin to see occupancy rebuilds, there will come a point, hopefully it won’t be in the too distant future, we are close to start to realize they can’t until the last minute, and we just haven’t got to that point yet. Chris Woronka – Deutsche Bank: Okay, great. That’s helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And we will go next to Josh Attie with Citigroup. Josh Attie – Citigroup: What’s your philosophy on the ATM program going forward both in terms of using your remaining capacity that you have and also how you would think about using a new program assuming you put one in place this year?

Ed Walter

Management

Well, Josh, I guess, what I would say is as we explain the ATM when we announced it last year, and it’s really our primary way of funding investments over the course of the near term. Now, we have got a fairly good pipeline right now, but having said that there is nothing; we are not closed to an announcement. There is no deal as imminent yet. I think we have build pretty about where the balance sheet exist at this point relative to the level of cash we have versus the debt maturities that we have paid. And we’ve raised just a little under $300 million in the programs still far which gives us a good basis or a good base for investing over the course of this year. I think the short answer on the ATM is that we don’t expect in the next quarter or so unless we start to announce some acquisition. We don’t expect to be issuing equity at the same pace that we were last year, and it will moderate a bit. And then as we -- as I relate it to a new program, I guess what I’d say there is, it's a little early to start to contemplate that, I mean at this point what we want to do is sign some acquisitions or other investments to get those dealing. To the extent if that’s successful we would certainly think of a as another program has a way to fund future acquisition but we are not at that point yet. Josh Attie – Citigroup: Okay. And you mentioned earlier that you might look at debt investments as a way to get acquisitions, can you just elaborate on that a little bit what type of investments you would look at and how you'd pursue those?

Ed Walter

Management

I’d say that there’s a couple of different forms of that type of investments that we'd look at. I am sure many of you know already that a typical securitized deal often comes with a senior notes that’s secured by the real estate or maybe a B notes that’s also secured by the real estate, and then maybe varying levels of mez debt that are not secured by the real estate but rather look to security in the form of the borrowers' ownership interest for their collateral. What you are finding in a lot of situations right now, it's clear that the borrower is probably going to be out of the picture that just because of decline in value has been significant enough that the borrowers not likely to retain any equity interest in the property because the value is not worth to debt. But what that still means is that there’s opportunities to invest either at the mez debt level or at the B note level. Some of those opportunities will be a route to the real estate. It will be an opportunity to buy that note at a significant discount, and then ultimately through for closure process or some other process end up with control of the property. In other cases it may just be that where there is an opportunity to invest in one of those securities and get a mid-teens or higher returns, which would be attractive from our perspective. So, each of the transaction tends to be a little bit different, they are actually fairly interesting but they are also fairly complex, but I think that gives you some flavor for what we are looking at. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: This is Michael Bilerman speaking. Just going back to the equity for a second, I guess maybe you can give little bit more clarity to the pipeline, I guess, to issue another, I know you had the type -- the ATM in place, to issue another 160 million of stock in the quarter or half having the billion already and having an untapped 600 million revolver, rather than wait for a couple of deals to come into pipe, wait for fundamentals to start to turn, and perhaps let that benefit accrue to the stock price and then issue more equity. I guess, it doesn’t sound anything is imminent, but maybe you can talk a little bit more about why you pulled the trigger on so much capital relative to your base?

Larry Harvey

Management

Well, Michael, I guess, what I would say is I am not certain when we are talking about the $12 billion company, I necessarily look and when you look at the traditional size of an acquisition that we make, which is typically in that $100 million to $300 million range, that would necessarily look at $300 million of capital being raised, is necessarily being out of way [ph] with the norm. But, I mean, the point I was trying to make, maybe I wasn’t quite so clear about it is that, number one, we do have a pipeline, but there isn’t anything imminent that we don’t intend to issue equity at the same rate that we have been over the next couple of quarters unless we see that pipeline start to materialize in real deal. So, I think, partly it sounds like part of our comment was that it would be prudent to be slower about raising equity capital until we start to see deal flow materialize, and I don’t think we see the road differently from you. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: Right, and I think, I guess, I was thinking more so that, that probably would have happened at the end of the third quarter that you would have put the brakes on a little bit of the equity prior to maybe announcing a deal or two. But it sounds like at this point we are at the same ballpark. Is there anything under matter of intense or that you can comment of?

Ed Walter

Management

I don’t want to comment on the status of deal, just because over the years I have found that to comment on anything before it’s done is usually a mistake. The thing I would point out too as you think about the capital we have is that, we have been – part of what we have been doing is trying to make certain we have adequate capacity deals in maturities that we have. Now we’re in great shape on that perspective. We only have – assuming our exchangeable afflict to us in a couple of months, we only have a little over 300 million come through this year, and we don’t deal our exposure in 2011 that’s much different than that. But remember that part of the drive and the world is changing, but part of the drive that we had over the course of 2009 is to make certain we were adequately prepared to deal with the different debt maturities that we have. And so some of that money that we have already is really targeted to deal with those maturities. Michael Bilerman – Citigroup: Right. Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we will take our next question from Joe Greff with JPMorgan. Joe Greff – JPMorgan: Good morning guys. You talked about this a little bit but just going back to your 2010 RevPAR outlook. I mean, maybe you can sort of contrast it with maybe how Marriott and Starwood are looking at things on the domestic side and their 2010 outlook is zero to down 3%. Do you look at 2010 differently than they do, is it more group business for you that kind of weighs on the outlook? Is it conservatism or is it a different view of the economy, if you can – give me sort of help reconcile your deal maybe versus some of your peers? And do you think that you underperformed some of the branded guys, given your mix or geographic segments?

Ed Walter

Management

Joe, I would – if I were to be in flip I would probably answer this but generally I think you are seeing the conservatism of an owner who is basically paid and focused on the bottom line as the somewhat normal optimism of the operator to the little bit more top line focus. The truth is that I don’t think there is a huge difference in the way we are looking at next 2010 compared to Marriott and Starwood are. They represent together probably 75% to 80% of our portfolio. So, to the extent that the way the years plays out is closer to the midpoint of their guidance and necessarily the midpoint of ours, you will see that benefit in our performance. I don’t expect that we would really ultimately perform much differently from them. I don’t know the exact composition of Starwood and Marriott portfolios from a group versus transient perspective. We mentioned the point that we may have a bit more groups in them and I suspect that that’s right. I think in the case of the Marriott portfolio I am sure that when you look at all the large group convention hotels that we own, that they also operate, I suspect that we will have a disproportionate percentage of those. If you look at that in terms of how we compare to the overall market in this area last year we probably ran 37% to 38% of our mix was group, and I think the industry as a whole has been up or upscale average 30% to 31%. So we are a little bit higher in group, and we area little bit concerned about group for this year just from the standpoint that everything we talked about today and in the past has been that group got hit a lot harder in this downturn than it normally got and frankly then we would have hoped in a way we developed our portfolio. I suspect that if we do underperform at all it would probably because we have a slightly larger group presence, and it may take a bit longer for that to come back. I think longer term that will -- I see that as a huge benefit. The reality is that that our normal group typically represents 42% to 43% of our overall business. So that’s a 5% plus jump in share that should ultimately come out of our portfolio, or happen to our portfolio the group that covers. And once that starts to turn the corner, we start to see group and it will especially be corporate group comeback. You'll see that reflected in stronger results for those. Joe Greff – JPMorgan: That’s helpful, Ed. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We'll take our next question from Will Marks with JMP Securities. Will Marks – JMP Securities: Hi, good morning. My question just relates to supply, I don’t think you mentioned supply on the call and I'm wondering how that supply may impact New York. It seems like the year-to-date numbers for the industry in New York are pretty strong but maybe you can just comment on major supply?

Ed Walter

Management

Overall, supply based on what most of the market experts have predicted looked like its going to end up being in that 1.3% to 1.5% level. A lot of that is weighted towards the first part of the year, its logic that with finance. That tree, financial meltdown are finally completed. As you look across the spectrum of markets that appear to be a bit more challenging, finance in New York and Denver tend to be some of the markets where we've seen more supply coming in, kind of looking at that in a 2009 to 2011 timeframe. That when New York makes that list of, the supply in New York is not really in Manhattan as much as in some of the surrounding neighborhoods and surrounding boroughs. So, ultimately as we look at the New York market, we actually feel fairly good about the ability of New York to absorb what will a downtown market what we are, for New York to absorb that supply. I mean the reality is for our portfolio for last year we ran well above 80% in terms of occupancy. I think it was around 83% for the full year in New York, was over -- a real close to 90% in the fourth quarter. So New York is one of those markets that we actually think, if you could get a little bit of pickup on the corporate transient side, we have little bit of strength on the group side, that’s the market that could surprise to the upside over the course of 2010. Will Marks – JMP Securities: Okay. That’s very helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll go next to Michael Salinsky with RBC Capital Markets. Michael Salinsky – RBC Capital Markets: Hi, good morning. Just a quick question on the group bookings for ’10, can you specify what the rate line is on those on a year-over-year basis?

Ed Walter

Management

Yes, part of the challenge in looking at group booking pace for this -- for 2010 is trying to adjust out the cancellation. But what I would tell you is look at this point that we are probably running plus or minus 5% behind where we were at this time last year. Michael Salinsky – RBC Capital Markets: Okay, so there is only 5% decline in rates in there. Second question, just in terms of the acquisition pipeline, can you give a sense of how much we’re looking at at this point? I mean is there a significant amount or is it really just one-offs at this point?

Ed Walter

Management

I would say that on the debt side, I am fairly encouraged by the number of transactions that we’re looking at. I guess the way I would describe is that more than the handful, on the fee side it is not. I mean, you are not seeing, as I have said in my prepared comments, you are just not seeing deals go through the process that had come out ready for sale at this point in time. That should change, I mean, you can’t have the number of defaults that we know are reading about and others that we are hearing are imminent, and you can’t have all that happen not either properties ultimately makes the market, but it hasn’t did yet. Michael Salinsky – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. With those $0.01 dividend statement there, do you anticipate this performance in the fourth quarter has been to pay another special dividends haven’t to have requirements, or do you think of based upon your current outlook that should be pretty good, and once that run rate should be sufficient?

Larry Harvey

Management

I think, I mean realistically the $0.01 level should be all that we pay out this year except for the fact that, I’m commented that we are still going to try to sell some assets this year. We just weren’t confident about the likelihood of those happening that we didn’t think there was any reason to include them in our expectations for the year. To the extent that some of those sales might happen at levels where they would trigger significant capital gains, then that might be the one reason why there would be a need for special dividend because taxable income would have gone up by a meaningful amount, but other than that there would be no – at this point wouldn’t accept that we would have a need to distribute more than the penny for the quarter. Michael Salinsky – RBC Capital Markets: Okay. Strongly I know you are primarily an unsecured borrowers, but I am just curious as to what you – if you seen any kind of strengthening in the secured debt markets?

Larry Harvey

Management

Yes, on the secured debt side, with respect to availability there has been a lot progress made, I think you have – there are some other banks out there that will principal CMBS debt, which would be in – depending on maturities in the six to 6.5 range at roughly 50% to 55% loan to value. You still have like companies out there on the higher end of, more of a 6.5 to 7.5 but there is availability out there. And those rates are significantly better as you can imagine they were a year ago. Michael Salinsky – RBC Capital Markets: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And we'll go next to Will Crow with Raymond James. Will Crow – Raymond James: Good morning, guys. Two quick questions. Larry, the CapEx guidance for 2010, how much of that is kind of recurring maintenance and how much is NOI provision?

Larry Harvey

Management

I think what I’d probably say is that, well, I think the true ROI component of that is probably in the 15% range. I think that is -- and the bulk of it is primarily for targeted maintenance this year. Will Crow – Raymond James: And then could you guys give us an update on how your Ritz-Carltons are performing, what’s the demand like, is the kind of the stigma gone away, what the group bookings look like as you think about, not so much 2010, but more 2011 and 2012, if you could just kind of cover that topic?

Ed Walter

Management

Bill, that’s good question because luxury is obviously one of the key part of our portfolio. It has dragged us down in a way those hotels performed last year. It is interesting to watch them and the trends on the luxury side, luxury did, I would say it did better, that would be an overstatement that they did better than the rest of the portfolio in the fourth quarter, but it certainly did a lot better than it had done in the first three quarters of the year. And as you got towards December and into January, and I think some of this is because if you think about the luxury segment especially the Ritz-Carlton Hotels that have own, we have a big lot [ph] of presence. We’ve actually seen that, that segment has outperformed the rest of the company in both the months of December and January. Now I think some of that is timing and some of that is the fact -- again reflects back to that last year was fairly ugly on the luxury side because those are the hotels that got hit first by the some of the politics around the same reasons for some other areas, but more than short is that we’re actually expecting for our whole portfolio this year for likely to probably do a little bit better than the portfolio as a whole. We’re actually thinking of Florida hotels based on their budgets and their performance here so far, individually there was only six weeks in the year, so you don’t really get a lot out of that. But so far our RevPAR which is in Florida are expecting to have positive RevPAR for the year. So I think what that tells you is that they are doing a little – they are doing better on the demand side. They are still down meaningfully in terms of rate, so that’s going to a challenge and it probably take them a while to rebuild on that front. There are still some segments in the industry that are scared to go to a luxury hotel, and so I suspect we’ll fight back for another year. We don’t – and our risk is we do at for season, we don’t get a lot of bookings that are multiple years out, that’s a typical corporate customer in terms of what close they are in. So I don’t know that you can draw a lot of comfort for what you are see in ’11 and ’12 but the bookings looking out further are inline with what you would expect in a normal year. They don’t reflect some of the weakness in all of that. Will Crow – Raymond James: Okay. That’s helpful. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

And that’s all the time we have for questions. I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ed Walter for any closing remarks.

Ed Walter

Management

Great. Well, thank you everybody for joining us on this call today. We appreciate the opportunity to talk about our results for 2009. More importantly, we look forward to talking with you in late April to discuss how 2010 is starting off and as how we see the rest of 2010. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today’s conference call. We thank you for your participation.