Earnings Labs

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST)

Q2 2008 Earnings Call· Wed, Jul 16, 2008

$20.81

-0.34%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to this Host Hotels & Resorts Incorporated second quarter 2008 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to the Executive Vice President, Mr. Greg Larson. Please go ahead sir.

Greg Larson

Management

Thank you. Welcome to the Host Hotels & Resorts second quarter call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward-looking statements under Federal Securities Laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed. We are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. Additionally, on today's call we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information such as FFO, adjusted EBITDA, and comparable hotel results. You can find this information, together with reconciliations, to the most directly comparable GAAP information in today's earnings press release, and our 8-K filed with the SEC and on our website at hosthotels.com. This morning, Ed Walter, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide a brief overview of our second quarter results and then will describe the current operating environment, as well as the company's outlook for the reminder of 2008. Larry Harvey, our Chief Financial Officer, will then provide greater detail on our second quarter results, including regional and market performance. Following their remarks, we will be available to respond to your questions. Now here is Ed.

Ed Walter

Management

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Given the challenging economic trend we have seen recently, we are pleased to report solid results for the quarter, that are generally consistent with our expectations. Our comparable hotel RevPAR for the quarter increased 1.7%, driven by a 2.6% increase in average room rate, which was partially offset by a decline in occupancy of 0.7 percentage point. Food and beverage revenues at are comparable hotels increased 2.5%, with significant growth again coming from the Orlando World Center Marriott. Overall, comparable revenues increased by 1.9% for the quarter. Despite sub-inflationary RevPAR growth, comparable hotel adjusted operating profit margins decreased by just 20 basis points for the quarter. The adjusted EBITDA of Host Hotels and Resorts LP for the quarter was $419 million, which represented a decrease of $3 million for the second quarter of 2007. Our FFO per diluted share for the second quarter was $0.56, but that was at the high end of our guidance and exceeded the consensus estimates by a penny. On the year-to-date basis, comparable RevPAR increased 2% and F&B revenues were up 3.1%. Year-to-date, adjusted EBITDA was $680 million that match last years total and FFO was $0.89 per share. In analyzing what was happening in our business over the last three periods and especially the last six to eight weeks, it has become clear that the various pressure points in the overall economy are combining to depress lodging demand. When we last spoke in April, we were not seeing any acceleration of weakness in our transient and leisure business, nor in our group bookings or group cancellation rate. However since May, we are seeing increased weakness in both our group and transient segments. Although we are clearly are still being impacted by our considerable construction program in certain markets even…

Larry Harvey

Management

Thank you, Ed. Let me start by giving you some detail on our comparable hotel RevPAR results. Looking at the portfolio based on property types, our resort convention hotels performed their best during the second quarter with RevPAR growth of 2%, led by strong growth at the Orlando World Center Marriott. RevPAR for our urban hotels increased 1.7% led by our Boston properties, while RevPAR at our airport hotels increased by 1.8%, and our suburban hotel RevPAR increased by 1.2%. Turning to our regional results; the New England region continued to outperform, with RevPAR growth of 6%, as our Boston hotels performed exceptionally well, due to very strong group bookings at citywide. In particular, RevPAR growth for the Hyatt Cambridge and Sheraton Boston exceeded 13% and 11% respectively. As we previously discussed, the New England region and Boston in particular will have a weaker third quarter, due to fewer city-wide and softening leisure demand. The Florida region also had a strong quarter with RevPAR growth of 4.4% driven by the gain at Orland World Center Marriott. The new exhibit hall and ballroom space that opened in the fourth quarter of last year continues to drive both group bookings and rates. The Florida region will have a weaker second half of the year due to a significant amount of business disruption with three properties under room renovations and a storage construction for ballroom addition at the Harbor Beach Marriott and The Ritz-Carlton, Amelia Island. Our DC Metro region, has RevPAR growth of 1.8%, rebounding from a weak first quarter because of four hotels under renovation. Our downtown hotels outperformed particularly the JW Marriott and the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill each with RevPAR growth in excess of 7%. Our suburban DC properties underperformed because of weaker transient business and lower short-term…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will take our first question from Celeste Brown at Morgan Stanley.

Celeste Brown - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Hi, good morning.

Ed Walter

Management

How are you doing?

Celeste Brown - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Good. Just first on your guidance, and maybe I am understand it wrong here. It looks like you are implying a potential for RevPAR to be positive in the fourth quarter, is that because of group business or is that now what is implied in the fourth quarter number?

Ed Walter

Management

It depends a little bit upon what your perspective is on what happened in the third quarter, and how you had got to the plus 1 scenario. I would say overall, we expect RevPAR to be negative in the second half of the year. We do think that there are some opportunities for the fourth quarter to be better than the third quarter, which I think you correctly surmised. Those would come from a combination of the fact that the group bookings for the fourth quarter are stronger. We also had much more construction disruption in 2007 in the fourth quarter, and so we are optimistic that having more of those rooms available for customers will ultimately result in slightly better occupancies and consequently better RevPAR in Q4. So, a lot that is going to depend ultimately on, due to the trends that we are seeing from a standpoint of weaker corporate business and slower group pickup, do they accelerate further into the fourth quarter, or having stepped down a bit in the May/June period, do we remain at that level going forward through the rest of the year?

Celeste Brown - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Okay. Then, given the contingency plans you have implemented at your hotels, what RevPAR do you need to maintain your margins?

Ed Walter

Management

I think at this point we probably assume that we need to be in the mid-3 range, probably about 3.5 in order to maintain block margins.

Celeste Brown - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Chris Woronka at Deutsche Bank.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Hey, good morning.

Ed Walter

Management

Okay, Chris.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Could you maybe give us some guidance on how much of your group bookings for either full-year '08, or maybe just first-half '08 were booked in prior years?

Ed Walter

Management

Chris, could you repeat that for some reason you are breaking up as we try to hear that.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Yes. Could you maybe give us a little bit of guidance on what percentage of your group bookings for either full year '08 or its just first half '08 were booked in prior years?

Ed Walter

Management

I would say that if you look at the year roughly about three quarters of our group room nights were on the books when we started the year. If you look at what is left for the year a slightly more than 90% of our full year group bookings either have occurred or on the books.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Okay, that is helpful. Also in terms of thinking about the contingency plans and the cost cuts, where is your low hanging fruit, if you already gotten that out of the way in the second quarter. I mean, how harder does it get to be, to continue to cut costs without significantly impacting the revenue side?

Larry Harvey

Management

You know each of these contingency plans happen on a property-by-property basis and they are always tied to the level of business that you are seeing at the individual hotel. So, things like closing F&B outlet and adjusting other levels of staffing will be implemented in a more severe form, if you begin to see occupancy decline at a more severe rate. So, I think that I would say overall I would not view it as the coincidence by any means that the full impact of our contingency plans has already been felt and implemented. The way these tend to work, they worst it gets the more that we implemented. So I think we’ve captured that in the margin guidance that we’ve given you. However, I do not think that by any means we fully exhausted the benefits from those plans.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Okay, great. Can I just clarify the first data point you gave us you said 90% of your room nights that were booked in prior years for '08 are already happened or…

Ed Walter

Management

Struck. No, what I was trying to say is that at this point in the year, 90% of our group room nights either have occurred because we are halfway through the year or are on the books.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Okay.

Ed Walter

Management

So, 10% of our group business, it is really less than that. It is really closer to 8% of our group business for the full year remains to be booked.

Chris Woronka - Deutsche Bank

Analyst

Okay, that is helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Felicia Hendrix at Lehman Brothers.

Felicia Hendrix - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. I just wanted to talk about your the special dividend that you reduced, which is clearly understandable given the state of things right now. Wondering though if we should be concerned at all about any risk to your regular dividend? Wondering if you could help us understand at what RevPAR levels do you start reassessing your dividend goal?

Larry Harvey

Management

I would say as it relates to our normal $0.20 per quarter dividend there you should not be worried about that at all. Number one, we’ve taxable income. We expect taxable income to be well in excess of that for this year. Consequently, we will be required to distribute that. In fact, we are capturing that taxable income also in our special dividend. Looking forward, I think you have to see a very draconian decline in RevPAR and in EBITDA before we will reconsider the dividend. As we’ve discussed in the past, the structure that we created a few years ago, when we reinstituted our divided it was designed to put us in a position, where we could give investors a fair degree of comfort that we will be paying that is $0.20 per quarter dividend going forward. I do not see a scenario today that would suggest we will not be able to maintain that.

Felicia Hendrix - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay, great. Then just wondering if you could give us an overview obviously they have deteriorated, but where are you seeing cap rates now?

Ed Walter

Management

We know that continues to be one of the most challenging questions in our business because its difficult to actually get comparable that one can evaluate that would confirm your sense, that pricing should be going down a bit. I think everybody was talking at the NYU Conference about the sale that happened out in California by Sunstone and clearly the multiple on that was quite strong and so as an indication of where high profile top colleague properties would sell as an owner it was somewhat comforting to see the evaluations would be at that level. Having said that, knowing what happened in the financial markets and really applying some of that to and probably also capturing some reduced expectations for the next 18 to 24 months, as people trying to look at what is going to happen. I think you have to assume, that if we would have said and did say a couple of quarters ago, the top part of our portfolio, the bulk of our portfolio would probably range between 6.5 and 7.5. We do think that those cap rates have modified a bit, we are probably think more in terms of a range of 7 to 7.5. I probably guess to that if you look at the assets that we are selling, will probably be in a similar 25 to 50 basis point increase in cap rates for those types of assets.

Felicia Hendrix - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay. That is really helpful. Thank you. Just a final question on the renovations that you have remaining for this year and even maybe some that you have that you can talk about for next year. Can you just walk us through the status of those, so we’ve a better idea of how to model that?

Ed Walter

Management

You mean in terms of the timing of the cash flows?

Felicia Hendrix - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Well, just in terms of when the timing of the completion of the renovations and where they are?

Ed Walter

Management

I mean, that we are spending as much money as we are spending those are hitting at all various times that over the course of the year. The larger one in Orlando obviously we talked about was finished at the end of last year, Atlanta just finished. I think Chicago, which is another big meeting space addition is not due to finish until the middle of the next year. As I say that is probably in terms of the big meeting space addition that is probably the timing for those.

Felicia Hendrix - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay. Okay, that is helpful. Thanks a lot.

Ed Walter

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

We will go to our next question from David Loeb at Baird.

David Loeb - Robert W. Baird

Analyst

Hi. Just to hit the cap rates again. At earlier, you talked about valuation, in terms of EBITDA multiple replacement cost. It looks like the market is implying a cap rate that is well north of nine, maybe close to ten. What do you think about the difference between that and your current share pricing, how does that affect your buyback analysis?

Larry Harvey

Management

Yes, David. I think we would agree with your assessment that if you look at current numbers right now, it would suggest that we are being valued at close to a 10 cap. I think that only would confirm in our minds the opportunity that exists in buying our stock and its one of the reasons why as we look at our investment program for the year. You heard us indicate that we were less optimistic about investing in assets in the US and more optimistic about the prospects of buying our stock. I also think a part of what you have got there is a dislocation still between where the private market is valuing the assets and where the public market is valuing company.

David Loeb - Robert W. Baird

Analyst

Does that mean you are going to be substantially more aggressive in buybacks or at least considering that?

Larry Harvey

Management

No, I would think, I mean. At the end of the day, right now, I think it hard for anybody to be confident in the overall economic outlook. So, I think that we would still stand by the comment we made, description that we’ve used for most of this year, with respect to the stock buyback program that we would approach it in a measured way. The way the year has played out frankly, confirmed the intelligence of that strategy in my mind. I think, as we look more broadly at what we are trying to do to deal with this environment, we start with being focused on making certain, that we are maintaining appropriate levels of liquidity, because while we are in excellent shape right now, and I think we’ve done a great job of that I think that it is incumbent upon all of us right now in periods like this, of uncertainty, to at least start by focusing on that. I think we want to continue to invest in our core portfolio. We think that by continuing to position our assets, we will end up in a scenario where, as when we ultimately recover, you know that we will, we want to be in a position to be even in a better and stronger competitor than we already are. That when you go to the next step, which is, investing outside your portfolio, you really look at what are the opportunities internationally, what are the opportunities to buy our stock and, and select intelligently among those alternatives, with recognizing that in the case of some of the opportunities to invest internationally, we are building some businesses that we think down the road will contribute meaningfully to the FFO.

David Loeb - Robert W. Baird

Analyst

Okay. One other topic, in your prepared remarks it sounded like you were seeing some of the impact of reduced airlift. Any thoughts on how big an impact that particular piece is on your third and fourth quarter numbers?

Ed Walter

Management

It is hard to isolate that particular issue alone, as you look at the Q3 and Q4 numbers. I would say, as we assessed the likely impact of that, we’ve had the opportunity to look at some analysis that we’ve done that suggested that as you get into October you are probably looking at an overall reduction in capacity that is in the 6 to 7 range. It feels like the absolute level of capacity reduction you are going to run into in the major market for most of our hotels are we are, will short of that. So, we suspect that the real impact of the travel, the capacity restrictions will not be that heavy on our business or any hotel. The leisure side is where we are more concerned. It is clear that what the airlines are trying to do with their entire capacity restriction program is really they have reduced their reliance on trying to fill planes with lower-priced customers. Consequently push rates up by raising their overall average rate. That is clearly hitting at leisure. A lot of their l capacity reductions have been targeted at major leisure markets. So that, that would include Orlando and for us that would include Hawaii. We’ve anticipated a fairly significant deterioration for Hawaii for the rest of the year, in part because of those capacity reductions.

David Loeb - Robert W. Baird

Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to Jeff Donnelly of Wachovia Securities.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst

Hi, good morning, Ed.

Ed Walter

Management

Good morning.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst

I know you have not given guidance for 2009 and I do not expect you to, but there is so much speculation right now in the marketplace and some within the industry that, hotels could see 5% or perhaps greater declines in RevPAR next year. I am curious if there are rates of RevPAR growth or decline that is striking personally as improbable, meaning that if you had to a wide range today for what the industry could face next year. Where would you put that lower band of RevPAR growth? Can you give us a sense?

Ed Walter

Management

Jeff, it is hard to try to do that right now. There have been enough changes over the six to eight weeks in 2008. Trying to project that out to '09 is difficult. What I would say about '09, and I do not think this will surprise people. The primary thing that is going to determine what happens in '09 is, what is going to happen from the standpoint of GDP growth in the overall health of the economy and I think that is obviously since that drives logic demand, that is going to be critical. We are concerned as we look at '09 that the consensus forecast for '09 appear to have deteriorated since the beginning of this year especially on the business investment side that does not make us particularly optimistic about demand growth in the beginning part of '09. We are also a little bit concerned about the fact supply is going to be slightly higher in '09 than in '08. Now the reality is the level of supply in '09, compared to our portfolio, compared to our market, it is slightly more than 2% is still at or below the long-term average for supply. So, in the long run it does not really represent a big problem. However, I think in the short run, looking at ’09, that is not a positive factor. The other side of that though is that, we are still seeing fairly decent group bookings for next year. The pace in our room nights, perspective is matching up with where we were at this time last year, which is good and the rate is up in the 3.5 range. So, if we were to project at this minute, we will be anticipating that we’ve higher group revenues next year than we had this year. Those group bookings represent about half of the overall group room nights that we are going to have for next year. So, the current are not overly favorable some of the smaller data points like the group bookings are not as bad as you might think. I think, we are going to be obviously look at real carefully at that and we will do our best to give you some better insight into that, that will probably be more satisfying come October.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst

Maybe building on that, where on your experience, do you think the industry begins to loose pricing power at least they no longer able to get positive rate go, do you have a sense of where that occupancy level is? Maybe related to that, do you have a gut sense of where in the next twelve months that the change in the number of, if I call, sellout nights in the industry, where you tend to get disproportionate profits on a given night?

Larry Harvey

Management

As it relates to overall occupancy levels, it seems to me, as we went through the last downturn and then we went though the recovery. It was for our portfolio and I really only can assess it from that standpoint. For our portfolio, what we typically found is that we’ve got much below 72%, 73%. We would start to run against the challenges in trying to maintain pricing. We are still above that level at this point. However, we are obviously getting closer to it as we work our way through this year. The second part of your question, again was?

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst

Just pertaining to, if you had a sense of the change in the number of sellout nights that you are facing in your portfolio?

Larry Harvey

Management

I do not know that I have any real good data points on that. The one insight I could throw out relative to that though that we will suggest so far that has been holding up is that if we look at where our weakness in actual occupancy turned out to be. It was on the weekends. During the week, we continue to maintain the same level of occupancy that we did last year. Weekends are where we seem to be suffering a bit more and I suspect if that is also where we had more troubles maintaining pricing.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst

Just one last question is I know your shares are down 50% in the past year and some of the peers or I should say but some of your peers are seeing their prices fall 70% to 80%. I know it is premature, but Host has a pretty good balance sheet. Where does acquisition activity fall in your mind right now and when do you think that might actually come back on the radar screen, is it six months, is it 12 months or is it just, it is hard to say?

Larry Harvey

Management

I would answer you consistent with the way I answered part of David's question is acquisition activities were always on our screen because we are always paying attention to what is available in the market. Having said that, when your stock is at the price that our stock is at, you need to be comfortable that there are a fairly great returns coming out of a particular individual acquisition in order to pursue that as opposed to buying back stock. I suspect that what we will see as you normally do in a market, is that as we work our way through the next year and a half, we will ultimately see pricing on the part of sellers become more realistic from a buyer's perspective, and as the economic outlook changes and the prospects for better growth begin to become more apparent, you will also find it is easier for a purchaser to justify an acquisition. However, I think it is going to take a little while before that happens and I suspect it will certainly take in sometime into next year. As it relates to other broader corporate acquisitions, which is I think part of what you were hinting out with your question, you know that is something that we’ve typically not focused on. We’ve done a couple of larger acquisitions in our history, but the way we generally built the company is one asset at a time. I would not see that as a priority for us.

Jeff Donnelly - Wachovia Securities

Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Nap Overton at Morgan Keegan.

Nap Overton - Morgan Keegan

Analyst

Yes, my questions have been addressed. Thank you.

Ed Walter

Management

Okay.

Operator

Operator

We will go next to William Truelove at UBS.

William Truelove - UBS

Analyst

Hey, good morning.

Ed Walter

Management

Good morning

William Truelove - UBS

Analyst

So, getting back to cap rates and asset evaluations, where your stock is. If you are saying that generally you think you give 7 to 7.5% is the credit cap, do you think that was correct. I just want to be sure that you think generally that is the correct cap rate, given the current financing environment?

Ed Walter

Management

Well no, I am not saying that necessarily represents the right cap rate for us is the buyer. What I am probably giving you a little bit more of a feel for is, based upon what we are seeing. When we try to estimate where transactions are happening that probably is the best indication that we can come up with per value given the limited amount of data that is out here.

William Truelove - UBS

Analyst

For your portfolio it’s specifically right.

Ed Walter

Management

Yes.

William Truelove - UBS

Analyst

Yes. So then if there is such a differential, are you moving more aggressively in finding additional assets to sell to be more aggressive on share repurchases. So, you could use more money faster that way then buying, because obviously you just said you do not want to buy a large portfolio of assets and I would agree with you that is very risky. However, could you not more aggressively sell your assets to repurchase stock?

Ed Walter

Management

I would agree with you that, that represents an intriguing opportunity for us and that we’ve been in the market attempting to sell assets on a consistent basis. We’ve been an active seller of assets over the last five years. We’ve seen a slow down in the ability our people to complete transaction that really goes back to last fall. As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we are hoping that there is $150 million plus or minus worth of transactions that we are working on. I hope that all of that closes and certainly to redeploying those proceeds and just buying back stock would be an attractive option. That is because I think they based on where we are currently priced, we would be buying our own company at a better multiple than where we would be selling. However, it is just hard to get them done right now. I think that while there certainly are interested buyers in the market and people are actively working those transactions. The ability to pull together their debt and their equity financing in that turbulent environment has proven very complex.

William Truelove - UBS

Analyst

Okay so it is fair to say your increasing your activity on the sell side is just been hard to getting closed, right?

Ed Walter

Management

We are increasing. I would say that we are continuing to work hard at getting sales done and then we hope that we are in a position to actually report additional sale.

William Truelove - UBS

Analyst

Right and then one last question then, giving thoughts again on margins, or going back to time we haven't heard since maybe the 90's, talk about your RevPAR, the EBITDA multiplier effect. What used to be sometimes like a 2 times, or probably a 100 basis points change in RevPAR, there is 200 basis points in, or 2% change in EBITDA. Given the contingency plans that you see in place by your operators, is there a multiplier effect, that you feel might be a reasonable one, is it 2 times, is it 1.5? What do you think is a reasonable way of thinking about the going-forward approach, given that you know the contingency plans in place of your operators?

Ed Walter

Management

I know that in the past the industry has defaulted those rules at times, in order to make things a little bit easier to assess. The tricky thing of course is that, especially with a portfolio like ours, it becomes a lot more complex in just where RevPAR is because food and beverage is a big part of our overall profitability, is a big part of our overall revenue stream. So, there is a lot going on within it. Somewhere in that two times area, maybe a little bit more is probably not a bad rough measure. In fact, that is what you chose to use. However, I think, typically the way we assess it, is more to look at what is actually happening with margins, make some assumptions with respect to margins and let that carry out. Because there just are so many moving parts right now in the overall machine, it is just a safer way to try to look at it.

William Truelove - UBS

Analyst

All right, thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Patrick Scholes at FBR Capital Markets.

Patrick Scholes - FBR Capital Markets

Analyst

Hi, good morning. With your third quarter RevPAR expected to decline between two and 4% and you implied fourth quarter basically flat range, what are your expectations for your year-over-year change in incentive management fee payout for those quarters?

Larry Harvey

Management

I would say overall if you looked at what we expect to see happen in incentive management fees for the year that we are expecting them to be relatively flat for the full year, it probably means they go down marginally in the second half of the year.

Patrick Scholes - FBR Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Then just touching on what is your target leverage ratio. Is it still around approximately 3.5, 4 times?

Larry Harvey

Management

Leverage meeting our…

Patrick Scholes - FBR Capital Markets

Analyst

Debt to EBITDA?

Larry Harvey

Management

Debt to EBITDA I think we probably, we would be comfortable being at a higher level of leverage than that.

Patrick Scholes - FBR Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. So,

Larry Harvey

Management

I think we would probably, will be comfortable. We tend to look more at coverage frankly than we do at leverage. I think we’ve generally this year we are in the high threes in terms of coverage EBITDA and interest coverage. We would be comfortable being at three maybe slightly below.

Patrick Scholes - FBR Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. One last question, it looks like in international you did 22% year-over-year RevPAR and same-store RevPAR, excluding foreign exchange what would that have been?

Larry Harvey

Management

It was roughly half so around 11%.

Patrick Scholes - FBR Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. That is it.

Operator

Operator

We will take our next question from Smedes Rose at KBW.

Smedes Rose - KBW

Analyst

Hi, thanks. You have answered most of my questions. However, I just wanted to ask you in your guidance for EBITDA the distribution received from equity investment it looks like its going down, is that mostly reflection of your European joint venture and does that include the contribution from the Amsterdam Hotel bought by that JV and I guess any more color on why that would be going down with the inclusion of that hotel now?

Ed Walter

Management

Hold on one second Smedes, Larry just maybe certainly looking for same thing you asked.

Larry Harvey

Management

I think the equity distributions we are taking are an adjustment in our forecast as well. You are looking at the full year?

Smedes Rose - KBW

Analyst

Yes. I mean looking at your full year guidance and the change from the guidance as of the first quarter, it looks like, it is about $5 million decline and I would just, is that mostly the European asset, the contribution for you and?

Ed Walter

Management

It is also some timing on our Asian investments. We’ve now pushed those back. So, it is a combination of both.

Smedes Rose - KBW

Analyst

So, your underlying assumptions for the European assets are in line with where they were or is it fair to say that international properties are starting to see some of the same falloff as the US properties?

Ed Walter

Management

We’ve seen, I would say, as Larry described when he went through what was going on with RevPAR in Europe. The pace in the second quarter there was slower than it had been in the first quarter and so we are seeing some decline in Europe compared to where the budgets were. The decline compared to the budgets is not as extreme as what we’ve seen in the States. I think you saw a little bit of that is being reflected there.

Smedes Rose - KBW

Analyst

Okay. Then, the only thing I wanted to ask you, have you seen, when you look at the supply growth in your markets presumably things scheduled to come on line in '09 or out of the ground and are going to open. However, are you seeing or hearing of cancellations or things getting stretched out due to lack of financing further out?

Larry Harvey

Management

We are just clearly seeing that. I mean even as I looked at some updated numbers for what was going to happen this year. I noticed the other day that the expectation for completions in '08 is following the pattern that we’ve seen over the last three years, whereas you work your way through the quarter, whatever the starting point is, it seems to drop by a quarter to 35 basis points, a quarter of 1% to 35 basis points off, by the time we get towards the end of the year. So, I am seeing the number for '08 decline. I think that right now some of that is sliding into '09, but at the same time I think you are seeing some assumptions with respect to some of the '09 completions become extended. As you look out at '10, we see based upon what under construction at this point in time, which is the only thing that I think you can really count on being delivered, we see a material drop off in supply in 2010. Our estimate right now, it would probably be roughly 1%, and it would not surprise me given the overall outlook if that even fall further. So, I think that as you think about fundamentals for our industry and you look out past 2009 that clearly is one of the plus points. Frankly, thinking about the fact that the '09 supply is slightly over two for our market, would end up being the high point in this cycle is, as I mentioned earlier I think quite a plus in thinking about the long-term health of the industry.

Smedes Rose - KBW

Analyst

Okay. Thanks. Then just on the final point, such as it is your airport hotels, have the airlines I say take capacity out, I mean they already talking about reducing contract business at those hotels, I know it is not a huge part of your overall business, but could maybe less flights means less crews, less contract business, which I think its part of all airport business right?

Ed Walter

Management

I am sure that if they are reducing their flight capacity by 6% or 7% that we are going to feel some effect from that in our contract business. The thing I would remind everybody is the contract business only represents 3% or 4% of our overall business mix. So, it maybe an issue at a hotel or two, but it should not be an issue for us overall.

Smedes Rose - KBW

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Ed Walter

Management

Right.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Walter for any additional or closing remarks.

Ed Walter

Management

Well, thank you for joining us on this call today. We appreciate the opportunity to discuss our second quarter results and outlook with you. We look forward to providing you with more insights into what is proving to be an ever interesting 2008, during our third quarter call on October. Have a great remainder of your week.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. We thank everyone for their participation. You may disconnect your lines at any time.