Jeffrey M. Ettinger
Management
Let me walk you through our thinking in terms of the guidance range that we've established for 2015. Starting with Refrigerated Foods, as we talked about earlier in the call, we do expect processing margins to not be as favorable as they were in 2014. Notwithstanding this, Refrigerated Foods we would expect to still grow modestly due to their value-added sales momentum in foodservice and with their retail brands and due to improved general efficiency, but it will be fairly modest growth in 2015 at a segment profit operating level. This more favorable cost environment should help Grocery Products, so we do expect Grocery Products to rebound to more normal growth rates, plus the fact that they will no longer have the earn-out as part of Fresherized Foods in their costs. The favorable cost will also help International. We expect International to achieve its fifth consecutive year of double-digit growth. For both Grocery Products and International, there are certain lingering high costs in the inventory that will continue to sort of dampen their results in their opening quarter of the year, but as the year goes on we'll be working through that inventory. Clearly Jennie-O Turkey Store, our expectation is to have another good year. They are in a more favorable grain environment, plus they have great value-added momentum, and this should move them towards the top of the operating profit range that we just articulated. That being said, there are some mitigating factors for Jennie-O Turkey Store. The grain benefit is partially offset by hedges. We've talked before about our hedge philosophy. The soymeal side of the grain formulas has remained stubbornly high. And we do have certain grain based contracts with foodservice customers within that segment. Secondly, we expect the turkey commodity meat markets, which have been at an all-time high, to not be quite as favorable in 2015. And then third, we have approved an enhanced advertising budget for Jennie-O Turkey Store, the Make The Switch campaign has driven good results, and so we're going to be investing further there. In fact, overall advertising spending, as we talked about, was up double digits in 2014 for the whole Company and should be again in 2015. For Specialty Foods, by the fourth quarter that the unit had recovered from the year-over-year SPLENDA change in business operations, their results were actually up modestly in Q4, if you don't count CytoSport at all. And so we expect again modest growth of the overall Specialty portfolio in 2015, plus they should attain the $0.05 a share benefit from the acquisition of CytoSport. So for us, this adds up to a range of $2.45 to $2.55, exclusive of the nonrecurring events. The midpoint of this range is a 12% increase over the year we just completed, on top of the 14% increase we generated in 2014. So that's our thinking at least in terms of providing this kind of guidance range.