Mike Stepniak
Analyst · Wolfe Research
Thank you, Vimal, and good morning. In the third quarter, Honeywell Technologies delivered strong results that surpassed our expectations across most metrics. Sales grew 7% organically with strength across all segments. Process Automation Technology sales grew 8% organically, led by double-digit growth in projects and a return to growth in aftermarket, led by refining catalyst demand. Project sales grew 14% year-over-year, led by strong LNG and petrochemical backlog conversion. The momentum in Building Automation continued with 8% organic growth, our eighth straight quarter of high single-digit growth, evidence that we continue to gain share in the market. This was principally driven by 11% organic growth in products, led by both the Fire and Security businesses, while Solutions also grew 4% organically, driven by strength in services. On a regional basis, we saw double-digit growth in both India and Asia Pacific with continued strength in the Americas. Finally, in Industrial Automation, organic sales were up 4% in the third quarter, led by double-digit growth in solutions, principally in industrial measurement and utilities. Product sales were roughly flat with sensing and industrial measurement demand offset by industry-wide deferrals in meter deployments across the utility segment. On profitability, segment profit grew 23% and segment margin expanded 370 basis points to 21.3%, driven by productivity, accelerated stranded cost elimination as well as strategic pricing actions and volume leverage. This more than offset rising inflation, headwinds from the mix of projects versus aftermarket and the acquisition impact in Process Automation Technology. By segment, in Industrial Automation, price and productivity actions in the core business drove 350 basis points of margin expansion with the business firmly on path to deliver 22% segment margin in the fourth quarter. In Building Automation, segment margin expanded another 30 basis points to 27%, driven by volume leverage and pricing actions that more than offset rising inflation. And in Process Automation Technology, margin contracted as expected, driven by mix headwinds stemming from higher project growth and dilution related to the acquisition of Johnson Matthey's Catalyst Technologies business. Adjusted earnings per share was up 34%, driven primarily by 23% segment profit growth and lower interest expense, which more than offset a higher adjusted tax rate in the quarter. Finally, free cash flow was up 15% to roughly $690 million, while our conversion increased to 95% in the quarter. We expect free cash flow conversion to be above 100% in the fourth quarter as we drive working capital improvements, including strong receivable collections. Let's now move to Slide 7 to discuss the third quarter segment margin and adjusted EPS bridges. Starting with margin, we're delivering stronger incremental margin in our short-cycle businesses, driving roughly 70 basis points of volume leverage. We're also continuing to effectively mitigate high inflation with strategic pricing actions, productivity and a reduction in stranded costs. We expect inflation to remain at these levels at least into the first half of 2027. Our strong market positions, installed base-driven business model and the mission-critical nature of our offerings give us confidence in our ability to successfully navigate this inflationary environment. On adjusted EPS, earnings growth in the third quarter was principally driven by a strong operational performance in all 3 segments, which allowed us to overcome the operating loss from our divestitures. Below segment profit, interest and other expenses declined year-over-year, while our tax rate was slightly higher. We're making good progress against commitments we outlined at the Investor Day in June. Our focus on offsetting inflation, delivering productivity and aggressively eliminating stranded costs for transformation is having a meaningful impact. This provides a strong foundation for 2027. Let's turn to Slide 8 to provide an update on our leverage commitments. As I discussed at the Investor Day, we're committed to reducing our gross leverage to less than 3x this year by lowering our gross debt balance from $18 billion in the second quarter to under $13 billion at the end of 2026. This will be enabled by the acceleration in free cash flow that we expect to continue in the fourth quarter. We expect our year-end cash balance to be approximately $3 billion, resulting in a net debt of around $10 billion. Importantly, the cash generation and continued reduction in our leverage will increase our capital allocation flexibility, including capacity to pursue disciplined M&A. Let's now turn to Slide 9. As you can see here, we have made considerable progress reducing fixed costs related to the portfolio transformation, and we expect this to continue in 2027. We're implementing a cross-functional shared services model across the company with a simplified and more flexible corporate structure. More importantly, during this time, we continue to invest in our businesses to drive future growth. The progress on stranded cost reduction underscores the pace of execution across the organization and the progress we are making in building a simpler, more focused company. This will position the company for long-term profitable growth. Executing stranded cost takeout within 6 months of the Aerospace spins demonstrates the strong operational execution capabilities of Honeywell Technologies. Let's turn to Slide 10 to discuss our revised full year outlook. Today, we're raising our full year organic growth, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow guidance as well as tightening our margin guidance around the previous high end. We now expect full year organic growth of 4% to 5%, up from 3% to 4% previously, driven by our execution in the third quarter and stronger outlook in the fourth quarter. By business, in the fourth quarter, we expect to see continued strength in buildings across both products and solutions, high single-digit growth in Process Automation and Technology led by project backlog conversion and higher catalyst volumes and continued sensing and industrial measurement demand in Industrial Automation. As a result, we expect to deliver 5% to 6% organic growth. With the performance to date, we expect to be at the high end of our full year margin range at 20.5% and at approximately 22% for the fourth quarter. This will continue to be driven by pricing, productivity and volume leverage, overcoming higher inflation and anticipated mix headwinds in Process Automation Technology, driven by higher project activity and dilution from the Catalyst Technologies acquisition. Industrial Automation should be at 22% margin in the fourth quarter, while Building Automation is expected to expand margins 70 to 90 basis points and Process Automation Technology will end the fourth quarter around 21.5%. We now expect full year adjusted EPS in the range of $8.40 to $8.45, which represents a $0.23 improvement at the midpoint. Notably, the low end of our guidance range is now above our previous high end. This results in full year earnings growth of approximately 30%. Lastly, our free cash flow guidance is up $100 million to $2.1 billion given the higher income conversion. You can find additional information on our 2026 outlook in the appendix of our presentation, which includes estimates for corporate and below-the-line items. Thank you for your time today. Let me now turn the call back to Vimal to wrap up before the Q&A.