Tom Szlosek
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Yes, that's fine Joe. We sort of had a sense that that would be a question. When you look at our businesses overall, our long-cycle is about 40%, short-cycle is about 60%. So were still in an environment on the short-cycle side where the demand patterns are not quite consistent, the word volatility was used before. I mean it's not exactly something that we have a good extended sight into on that short-cycle side. But with that, if you look at it by each business, I mean Aerospace is more long-cycle oriented and the exception of the aftermarket, so fairly well grounded we did flat in Q1, we were calling minus 3 to minus 1 for Q2 and that's mostly OE related. You have those incentives coming through, as we mentioned that's at the bulk of the first half staff incentives hit us in that second quarter you've got regional and that's on the OE side that's been fairly weak and BGA continues to be kind of in that flattish range. From an HPT perspective, short-cycle we're a little bit more cautious. So yes, we did 3% in Q1, we're calling 1% to 3% in Q2, let's see how that -- let's see how the demand patterns emerge over this quarter. I'd said the same thing for SPS, although there are a couple of other things going on there. So SPS was 3%, first quarter we're calling 0 to 2 in Q2, we've got a change in our go-to-market model on the retails side and we're going more direct to our customers and as a result there was some timing patterns in the channels. We also had as I mentioned, significant improvement in the first quarter and workloads solutions supply-chain. There was strong demand, but there was some unintended backlog at the end of the fourth quarter, we worked our way through and that helped Q1 specifically and SPS. So that's tempers a little bit. But lastly on PMT, I think the -- it's fairly well grounded given the backlogs, so 5% in Q1, 3% to 5% in Q2, certainly Darius and I talked to Rajeev everyday about this, so we have the sort of the same expectation that we'll do a little bit better there, but we just want to be cautious on demand on some of the advance materials. It's been running like gang busters, as I said 150% improvement on the Solstice sale. I don’t want to just bank on that every single quarter going forward.