Tom Szlosek
Analyst · Barclays. Please go ahead
Thanks, Darius. I'm on Slide 4. As Darius mentioned, we delivered more than 2% organic sales growth this quarter. Now truth be told, we were actually within inches of 3%, but it did come out at 2%. All of our segments were at or above the high end of the sales guidance we provided back in January, so a strong start from a growth perspective. Segment profit was up 8%, excluding divestitures and segment margins expanded 70 basis points from 2016. This accounted for the bulk of the EPS expansion as you'll see in a minute. The segment profit growth was driven by sales improvement, our ongoing productivity initiatives that benefits from the significant restructuring programs that were funded in 2016. And overall frontend commercial excellence. Reported earnings per share of $1.71 were up 10%, this $1.71 includes a $0.05 benefit from a lower than anticipated tax rate. So for proper comparability and to remove all tax favorability from our results, we’ve normalized 2016 to reflect the expected 2017 full year tax rate and to eliminate the $0.05 from 2016, relating to the divested businesses. On that basis, EPS was up 11% or a $1.66 and that’s as Darius said, $0.02 above the high end of the guidance range. Free cash flow performance was also encouraging in the quarter, as Darius mentioned, the entire organization at all levels is focused on our working capital performance. We’re breaking down our order to cash processes into myriad of sub-segments and we’re systematically measuring and improving the cycle time of each of those sub-segments. We’re adjusting incentives to foster more improvement in working capital and we have a standard operating cadence that culminates in a monthly review with Darius and me by each business. There is still much to do in this area, and while it is still early in the year we’re encourage by our progress so far. So, overall a very strong start to 2017, but still a lot of opportunity for further improvement over the next three quarters. Let’s move to Slide 5 and discuss each of the segments. In Aerospace, we finished the quarter above the high end of our first quarter sales guidance range, driven primarily by a strong performance in the air transport aftermarket. We saw an uplift in spares demand and strength and repair and overhaul activities with our airline customers particularly in the sales, repairs, modifications and upgrades, that resulted in high single-digit growth rate in the APR aftermarket. The aftermarket in business and generally aviation was roughly flat with stronger than anticipated RNO and connectivity revenue, largely offset by a decline in spares. Our OE performance was as expected with volumes to our air transport customers up slightly on the strength of A350 shipments, offset by declines in business and general aviation. Defense sales were roughly flat with the strong organic sales growth in our core U.S. and International Defense businesses offset by space and commercial helicopter weakness. And there was continued strength in light vehicle gas turbo penetration particularly driven by new launches in Europe and china. As well there was some encouraging signs in the on-highway commercial vehicle market globally and most notably in China and in Europe. Aerospace segment margin expansion in the quarter of 90 basis points also exceeded the high-end of our guidance. Driven by productivity, commercial excellence and the favorable impact of the divestiture of the government services business in 2016. Overall a very strong start to 2017 for Aerospace. Home and Building Technologies generated organic sales growth of 3% driven by a strong performance in environmental and energy solutions, security and fire and our global distribution businesses. Growth in the China business and HBT was nearly 15% this quarter, that was led by the clean air and water product portfolios and ENS [ph]. We continue to see momentum in the residential real-estate market in China, anticipate continued infrastructure investment that will help to drive future growth. Across HBT there was gradual sales improvement over the quarter with decent exit momentum. Segment margin while below our expectation was still quite strong at 70 basis points improvement. Extending from our ongoing productivity initiatives and the restructuring actions taken in the second half of 2016. The mix dynamics of sales in the quarter were bit less favorable than we anticipated. Performance materials and technologies had a very strong quarter. Sales up 5% on an organic basis, margins expanded 260 basis points and orders were up double-digits. The performance was led by advanced materials where a softer sales growth exceeded a 150% on an organic basis, enabled by the capital investments we've made over the past several years. Sales in UOP were up 3% organic led by gas processing, there continues to be increasing interest in domestic modular units in particular. In the first quarter alone we signed 6 new deals in the U.S. for pre-engineered cryogenic plants that separate natural gas liquids. This compares favorably to the 12 units we had for all of 2016 including 2 in the first quarter. Growth in the catalyst business was at low-single digits driven by new Oleflex Units. The orders in UOP were up over 15% in the first quarter segments days for continued performance in this business. Sales and process solutions were roughly flat on an organic basis. We had healthy customer adoption of our insurance 360 service offering and good growth in our lifecycles solutions and services business. This was offset by slower sales in our large projects business. Orders in HPS were up nearly 10% on an organic basis. The margin expansion in PMT was driven by productivity, commercial excellence initiatives and the impact of the spin-off of the former resins and chemicals business in 2016. So all in all great results to PMT and encouraging forward indicators across all of its business units. Finally, in SPS organic sales were up 3% exceeding the high-end of our guidance range. Industrial safety is the largest business within SPS grew 4% on organic basis driven by our high risk and gas detection offerings. There was also a significant growth in our workflow solutions business due to strong demand and improved supply chain execution. Growth in our IoT business was also strong with good performance in a number of regions and Intelligrated grew in excess of 20% this quarter compared to the first quarter of 2016 when it was not own by Honeywell and this was driven by large products in a number of key accounts. Excluding the first year's dilutive impact from M&A, SPS segment margins expanded more than 300 basis points driven by continued productivity and restructuring benefits and the conversion on the strong sales volume. We’re encouraged by the trends that we saw in the first quarter in SPS and in the rest of the portfolio. Slide 6 contains a walk of our EPS from the first quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2017. In the first quarter of last year earnings from our 2016 divestitures were $0.05 and we exclude those amounts from the 2016 baseline, consistent with the 2017 earnings guidance framework we provided. For comparison purposes, as I said earlier we’ve also normalized the tax rate for the first quarter of 2016 for the expected 2017 full year tax rate and this effect was minor as you can see. In the first quarter of 2017, the segment improvement I highlighted for each business accounted for $0.12 of the year-over-year improvement in earnings per share. Below the line items and a slightly lower share count contributed $0.04 this quarter, bringing our 2017 EPS excluding benefits from the lower tax rate to $1.66, which is that $0.02 beat to the $1.64 high end of our first quarter guidance. EPS increased 11% year-over-year on this basis and for the full year we expect our share count to be consistent with the 772 million shares we projected in January. Regarding tax, our planned tax rate for the quarter was about 25%, but the actual rate was 22.7%, with the difference contributing an additional $0.05 of EPS growth resulting a reported EPS of $1.71. Our expectations that the effective tax rate in quarters two, three and four will be at or above 25% and to the extent that change will provide an update. Let's turn to Slide 7 to discuss what we’re seeing in our end markets heading into the second quarter. Last quarter, we told you about some encouraging trends in our oil and gas businesses and those have continued this quarter. The combined UOP and HPS book to bill ratio was strong at 1.15 and UOP orders as I've said earlier were up over 15% driven by our gas processing business. The domestic rustle businesses has outpaced our expectations as the demand for non-gas liquid separation technologies strengthened in the U.S. There are also more orders for licensing which is typically one of the first indicators that the oil and gas cycle is restarting. The activity in UOP China has been particularly strong and we’ve got a number of key projects which will allow us to leverage the capacity investments we’ve made over the past two years. Within Home and Building Technologies in the second quarter, we anticipate several large smart meter project rollouts in Europe and better backlog conversions in the Americas. Smart meter business came to Honeywell as part of the Elster acquisition and it continues to perform well. Overall the short cycle demand in the commercial and residential segments continues to be robust. The aviation market continues to be resilient with the high end single digit growth driven by spares demand and repairs modification and upgrades in the air transport and regional business. This is supported by the outlook for continued flight hour growth of 4% to 5% in air transport and regional. In the business in general aviation market, we had strong demand in the repair at overhaul business, but weaker performance in spares, driven by a continued decline in maintenance events. We expect continued aftermarkets strength heading into the second quarter, with the airlines business growing faster than BGA. Flight hours in BGA are likely to remain flat to down in 2017. Our connectivity business grew double digits in the first quarter and will continue to be a source of strength for aftermarket revenues. We were encouraged by the increased activity in our businesses that serve the industrial sector. Our industrial safety business was up mid-single digits driven by demand for gas detection in high risk safety equipment. The backlog and pipeline of future orders at Intelligrated continues to be strong and we are encouraged about the prospects for 2017. As planned, we expect lower shipments and fewer engine maintenance events than 2016 for business jets. We continue to plan conservatively and do not anticipate a recovery until the 2018, 2019 time frame. And we on Slide 9 with a preview of the second quarter. Aerospace sales are expected to be in the flat to down 2% range on an organic basis with continued strength from the ATR aftermarket and solid demand in the U.S. core defense. In transportation systems, we anticipate continued recovery in the commercial vehicles business combined with growth in light vehicle gas applications especially in China. These benefits will be offset by the ongoing secular softness in the BGA and space markets. We expect reported sales will be down 5% to 7% due to the 2016 divestiture of the government service business. Aero margin expansion would be driven primarily by the benefits from our 2016 restructuring projects and a stronger mix of aftermarket growth. Importantly, the second quarter is expected to be the last quarter of the headwind associated with OEM incentives. In the second half they become an approximate 70 million tailwind to sales and segment margin as compared to an approximate 25 million headwind in the first half. In Home and Buildings technologies reported sales are expected to be down 1% to up 1% due to the impacts of foreign currency translation. With organic sales growth up 2% to 4% driven by the large Elster smart meter rollouts, I mentioned earlier. In the other products business we expect continued contributions from new products introductions like our T-series thermostat and do it yourself security products which were on display earlier this month at IFC web [ph]. In China, we again expect double-digit growth driven by continued air and water demand and growth in security and fire systems associated with large real-estate projects. We also expect continued strength in our global distribution business and stronger growth in building solutions. HPTs segment margins are expected to expand 70 basis points to 100 basis points driven by cost reductions from prior restructuring actions commercial excellence in ongoing productivity initiatives partially offset by product mix headwinds associated with strength of our distribution sales. In PMT, we anticipate continued strong performance across the group with 3% to 5% organic sales growth. Advanced materials is expected to be up significantly and continued demand for Solstice's lower global warming products. UOP improving oil and gas markets and the strong backlog will drive continued growth, primarily in licensing and equipment sales. We also expect modest growth in the process solutions business driven primarily by our short-cycle software and service offering. On a reported basis PMT sales are expected to be down year-over-year due to the spin-off of resins and chemicals business in the fourth quarter. The projected segment margins expansion of a 170 basis points to 200 basis points is driven by higher volumes productivity and the impact of this spin-off of the former resins and chemicals business. In Safety and Productivity Solutions sales are expected to be up flat, or to be flat to up 2% on an organic basis, with recorded sales increasing north of 25% due to the impact of the Intelligrated acquisition. The organic growth will be slightly lower quarter-to-quarter as the significant workflow solutions growth we saw from improved supply chain execution in the first quarter normalizes in the second quarter. In the safety business, growth in the industrial business will be driven by new product introduction and better end market outlooks. In Intelligrated, orders were strong exciting the first quarter and we anticipate double-digit growth to continue. SPS margins are expected to expand by more than 250 basis points excluding the first year of dilutive impacts with M&A, driven primarily by benefits from last year's restructuring projects and by the sales growth and ongoing productivity initiatives. For the company in total we’re expecting EPS of $1.75 to $1.80, which will be up 7% to 10% year-over-year excluding 2016 divestitures and normalizing for our expected full year tax rate. Organic sales growth is anticipated to be flat to 2% with 50 basis points to 80 basis points of margin expansion. We expect the reported sales will be down 1% to 3% due to the 2016 portfolio actions I mentioned. Let me move to Slide 9. As Darius mentioned, we’re raising our low end of our full year EPS guidance by $0.05 to $6.90 to $7.10 up 7% to 10%, excluding divestitures. At a total Honeywell level we continue to anticipate delivering between 70 basis points and 110 basis points of margin expansion for the full year driven by slightly better performance in aerospace and PMT overcoming a slower start in HBT. Let me turn to Slide 10 for a brief wrap up. In summary, we delivered a high quality first quarter results with all of our segments contributing to the performance. Our end markets continue to improve across our businesses and our execution is getting better as well. We expect second quarter earnings to grow 7% to 10% year-over-year excluding divestitures and normalize for tax and we raised the low end of our full year EPS guide by $0.05. Our businesses continue to win and growing end markets, the investments we made in 2016 including the significant restructuring projects are also delivering for us and our Honeywell operating system is continuing to drive commercial gains and productivity improvements. We’re well positioned to continue to outperform for the remainder of 2017. So with that, Mark let's move to Q&A.