John Olin
Analyst · Felicia Hendrix from Barclays
Okay. Thanks, Felicia. So to clarify on the overall shipments. We were down 12,000 units in shipments in the first quarter. We expect to be at 80,000 to 85,000 of shipments in the second quarter which is down 4% to 9% and down about 3,000 to 5,000 units. We would expect most of that first half decline of 15 to 18 or whatever that works out to be, 15,000 to 18,000-ish, we would expect that to move to the back half, but mainly into the fourth quarter and again, that goes to our desire to tighten up inventory over the first 3 quarters. And then as we add it back in the fourth quarter, that helps us get to the trajectory that we need to have enough motorcycles in the spring selling season of model year '18. With the surge production and capability that we have, we need to end the year at about year-ago levels to make it for the next year's bikes. So that will largely come back in the fourth quarter. With that will come back the profitability of those shipments and with that will come back a lot of absorption and therefore, make the fourth quarter a higher profit quarter as well as on gross margin significantly improved during that quarter. The second question was with regards to the first quarter retail sales and the cadence within the quarter. When we look at the quarter, January, February did much better than March. March was a very tough month for the industry and certainly, for Harley-Davidson. We picked up a fair amount of share in the month of March, but overall it got tougher in the month of March. And when we look at the overall regions, we saw a softness in the West, Southwest and North East. Other markets were good. And as we -- we didn't talk about weather, we don't think that weather on a full year -- or a full quarter basis impacted overall sales. It was one of the warmest quarters, but was also one of the wettest quarters. And -- but it did have some impact on various markets within the U.S., but others benefited. And I'm sorry, on April, with regards to the sales, we don't comment on any quarter retail sales.