John Olin
President and CEO
Tim, this is John. Talking about used prices, whenever we talk about used prices, we’ve got to be clear on what market we’re talking about. There is really three different markets the way we look at it. There is the market that bikes are sold in driveways, on eBay and those types of things. About two-thirds of the used bikes are sold in that market. We do not have a lot of data with regards to what’s happening to used bike prices, supply-demand driven, very local. The other part of the market is used bikes that are sold in our dealership. About one-third of the used bikes go through our dealer network, and that we do have more data on. Then finally is the repo market. It’s a very small market, only about 7% of overall used bike sales go through it, but an important market in that a lot of the services take that data and try to project it forward under retail prices, and it obviously has an impact because we sell repossessed motorcycles on our credit losses. So when we look at the dealer network, we’ve talked about through the better part of 2015, prices held up very well. We saw a little bit of softening in the fourth quarter, which we talked about last quarter. That softness has continued into the first quarter, and it’s not out of line with what we’re seeing in the industry, but it is a little bit softer. To answer your question on what’s driving it or the lead of it is cruisers. Cruisers are falling more, and that’s what we would expect because that’s what we’re investing in. We certainly saw it when Rushmore came out - you know, it was the touring bikes that fell more, so we’re adding a lot of content with power in the new models and that’s where we’re seeing more softness, but that’s also where we’re adding a lot of the content. Tim, the other question that you asked is on HDFS. I think the question was around sub-prime, and sub-prime has been about 20% of our portfolio. Over time, sub-prime has represented between 15% and 25%. Sub-prime is a fantastic business for us. We have tremendous returns on it and sell a lot of incremental motorcycles, and we are seeing sub-prime normalize a little bit. But the fact of the matter is for the last seven years, sub-prime has not behaved like sub-prime. It has performed extremely well and we have priced our models for more of a normalized sub-prime performance, and we are starting to see more of a normalization which we’ve talked about in the last several quarters. Overall, sub-prime is at about 20%. We do not have a target on sub-prime. Our objective is to do well-structured loans and we’re always looking for opportunities to improve, but we do not have a target per se.