Brent Bilsland
Analyst · MCN Capital. Please go ahead.
Sure. Well, I think in general, the trend that we are seeing in the industry is, if you look at the frac-ing several years ago, ten years ago, a lot of these guys were using ceramic sand because they were doing two-stage fracs. They were trying to get 1,500 barrels a day of production through two-stage fracs. So, that was 750 barrels a day per stage. And from there, then you migrated from 2 fracs to 50 fracs to 100 fracs to now you've got wells that have 500 stages in them. And so, what's changed in the industry is when you have two stages and you're trying to get 750 barrels of production per stage versus 500 stages where you're trying to get three barrels per stage, we've gone from where connectivity was extremely important to now coverage is probably the bigger focus. So, people are using more sand, but lower grades of sand. And so, that's allowed – but as you use more sand, how do you keep your cost structure low. And that's kind of forcing people – they went from ceramic to Northern White to now you're seeing a lot of sands in Texas come into the market. And this is kind of just an extension of that. This mine was originally a filtration mine and the sand was too fine to be filtration sand, but it's what customers are using now. It is where the industry has trended. So, we like the project and we're ahead of the curve because the permits are materially in place. So, we've kind of stepped into this into maybe a phase one, phase two. Phase one is we're kind of going at this by a low capital exposure way to get sand out the door quickly and meet customers' needs as early as late summer. And then, we're kind of looking at – and through that capacity, we're going to be somewhere in the 800,000 to 1 million ton a year range starting sometime late third quarter, we hope. That's our thinking today. Phase two would be, if the market can handle a lot more of this capacity, then we'll look to maybe build another plant and try to lower our cost curve. So, get your volumes up and lower where we're at in the cost curve. So, that's kind of our thinking. So, for now, this is startup year. It's tough to make money in a startup year. We hope to enter next year at a 800,000 to 1 million ton a year pace. And we think the margin – we think the mining is much simpler than what we're doing in coal and we think the margins will be better than what we're currently doing in coal. So, when you add all that up, I think it can be meaningful to Hallador's earnings stream.