Brent Bilsland
Analyst · ANC Capital. Please go ahead.
Yes, I think the issue for the years, coal is a very consistent base load fuel. And so burn projections at the utility were fairly easy to predict. As natural gas has become a greater competitor, there’s times throughout the last several years where natural gas production has increased. The storage of natural gas really hasn’t significantly increased. So when there’s a hiccup somewhere in the demand for natural gas, it has to price down to a point where it displaces something. So – and that is gas is basically trying to spill into the electrical market. So because of that, utilities have their predictive models on how much power they’re going to generate going forward in the year have become less clear. And so also, you’d have a declining market demand at the same time. So those two factors have allowed the utilities to say, you know what, we’re just going to play it on the short side and the market has been oversupplied, so we’ll be able to buy our need. At some point in time, the market will overcorrect and you’re going to see utilities get caught short. We thought that, that event was going to happen in January of this year, which is the reason we increased our inventory levels purposely. But then the weather turned out to be 75 degrees in January and February, and that kind of subsided the tightness that we were seeing build in the market. That being said, we think that, as I’ve stated before, the market that we’re in, gas levels – gas inventory levels are not near as high as they were a year ago. Coal inventory levels are not near as high as they were a year ago, and yet we’ve seen supply on the coal side come out of the market. We anticipate seeing more come out of the market this year, older production that has had legacy contracts and now they’ve got to come out and compete with lower-cost mines, such as ourselves. So we think that, yes, the utilities are staying shorter. They still have big open positions. It makes everyone nervous when they see our open book and our competitors’ open book, but that’s just the new market dynamic. We don’t seem to price out business on as long a period as we used to. But we think there is a point, and we’re not – hopefully, not that far from it, where the market will overcorrect, and we will go from an oversupplied market to an undersupplied market. I think we came very close to that this year. It didn’t materialize. But it’s still not that far out of the realm of possibility. A little more export pulling coal out of the Illinois Basin or some weather events, I think it wouldn’t take a lot to get this market to rally.