Earnings Labs

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 31, 2021

$15.63

-5.07%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-6.61%

1 Week

-17.20%

1 Month

-7.41%

vs S&P

Transcript

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Good day. And thank you for joining the Harmony FY'21 Results Presentation. I hope you are all keeping safe. It's a pity that we can't be able to meet in person. Due to the COVID safety protocols, we will be presenting our full-year results virtually. With me presenting will be Boipelo Lekubo; "Mashego" Mashego is also in the meeting with me; Marian van der Walt and Herman Perry from the Executives; and then also the IR team under leadership of Jared Coetzer. Please take note of our safe harbor statement. All FY'21 delivery versus our -- compared to our previous year's results, FY'21 saw as the level across all four pillars, resulting in a fantastic set of full-year results. From the very beginning of the pandemic, we knew that we had to focus on the wellbeing, the health and safety of our employees and host communities. At the same time, it was also imperative to steer the company through these unprecedented times to realize our strategic objectives. I am proud to report that we did both. FY'21 was indeed an incredible year for Harmony, and has positioned us for what will be a truly striking future. Some of the key highlights we achieved in 2021 -- FY'21 include that we have been continued progress improving across all aspects of ESG. Sustainable development is an important deliverable for management as we position ourselves for a greener and more equitable future; more of this shortly. We have had a solid operational performance after acquiring Mponeng and related assets. We saw even a significant increase in production and improved grades. Our the new assets that which delivered, excluding Mponeng and related assets, we achieved a 5% increase on the old Harmony assets, and as also stunning performance. Excluding Mponeng and related assets, we…

Boipelo Lekubo

Management

Thanks, Peter. FY'21 has indeed been a fantastic year for us, and we delivered an exceptional financial performance. earnings per share increased by just under 700% to 923 South African since from a loss in FY'20 over EBITDA increased 64% to ZAR9.8 billion from ZAR6 billion in FY'20. The higher production combined with a 16% higher RAND kilogram gold price resulted in a net profit of ZAR5.6 billion in FY'21, compared to a loss of ZAR850 million in FY'20. We expanded our operating free cash flow margin to 16% in FY'21, a 23% increase year-on-year. We realized a ZAR1 billion gain on derivatives in FY'21. In FY'20, we saw a loss of ZAR1.7 billion. So this does confirm that our more definitive hedging program is yielding positive results and we'll still see that in future. Our existing hedge book is also favorably positioned relative to the current gold price. In terms of debt, we will note that we've managed to reduce our net debt by a further ZAR819 billion during the course of the financial year. And our net debt to EBITDA sits at 0.1 times, from 0.2 times in the previous financial year. The next slide is just the same indicators, but in U.S. dollars. In terms of our balance sheet strength, our balance sheet has continued to strengthen, and we've managed to deleverage considerably over the last three years. As I alluded to in the previous slide, we currently have the net debt to EBITDA at only 0.1 times, which is well below our target of 1 times. What is also noticeable to note is the blue bars, which indicates the EBITDA, and is just an indication to show just how well the new acquisitions have been for us. Again, the same chart reflecting net debt to EBITDA in U.S. dollars. In addition to reducing our debt, we're created flexibility, and now have ZAR7 billion or $500 million in available headroom through cash and undrawn facilities. This gives us substantial room to maneuver and provides a strong buffer during times of uncertainty. It also allows us to take advantage of the kinds of opportunities that Peter has discussed, and others which may yet present themselves, again, just a U.S. dollar representation of the headroom. Harmony now has a clear dividend policy, where we will return 20% of net free cash generated to shareholders. We'll be paying a final dividend of ZAR0.27 in FY'21, and this combined with our interim dividend, of ZAR1.1, results in a dividend yield of 2.4% based on our share price on August, 27. We're confident in our ability to pay a dividend alongside our growth aspirations as we are in a strong position to fund CapEx from our cash. Thanks very much. And I'll hand back to Peter.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Thanks, Boipelo. Okay, so let me conclude. The Harmony of FY'21 is very different from that of old. The Harmony is positioned for -- in FY'22 and beyond, and has a solid building block in place to ensure that we mine sustainably throughout the cycle. We have optimized our existing operations, and we have integrated the ESG practice throughout Harmony. Our acquisitions combined with our responsible hedging strategy will ensure that our balance sheet remains strong and flexible so that we can deliver positive returns to our shareholders and stakeholders. Our investment case remains compelling. We have reengineered our portfolio, and de-leveraged our balance sheet to create optionality and pay a dividend alongside growing the company. We are geared to rank gold price with rand cost but U.S. dollar revenue. As a 1.6 million ounce gold producer, we are expending our margins through organic growth and our new exciting projects. We have a tier 1 copper gold asset in Papua New Guinea, and our embedded ESG practices will create lasting legacies and ensure a sustainable future for all our stakeholders. And we thank you very much. And we'll now be taking questions.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

And if we can just move over to the chorus call, we'll take questions for people that are dialing in.

Operator

Operator

Of course, sir. The first question we have is from Adrian Hammond from SBG Securities.

Adrian Hammond

Management

Good morning, Peter. Good morning, Boipelo. I have a few questions. Firstly, just I'd like to get a bit more clarity on your ability to pay dividends that you seem to be confident on. If I add your CapEx in addition to sustaining CapEx, I get an all-in cost in excess of spot prices. So, just curious to know how you reconcile that outlook given your aggressive CapEx plans and your ability to pay a dividend? And secondly, I want to know if you considered the Mponeng B120 project, and if it's still an option, and if not, why? And then thirdly, could you give us an update on the movements within union membership, and if NUMSA is making headway into gold as they are ? Thank you.

Boipelo Lekubo

Management

Thanks, Adrian. I think maybe if I take the dividend one first. Obviously, I mean our policy is quite clear; it's 20% of net free cash flow, that's after all CapEx and the like, or other below-the-line items. Yes, obviously, with the CapEx spend that we're seeing next year our free cash flow generation will be minimized somewhat. But it's important to understand that this ZAR8 billion that we're spending is setting us up for growth. So, obviously as that capital comes down and the projects come on stream, we're going to see significant margins opening up. So, in order for us to grow the company we need to spend this CapEx, and the dividend will follow suit. But I must add that in assessing these projects, et cetera, the discussion of a dividend does still feature, so it's important to still keep that in mind when you assess our response on dividends.

Adrian Hammond

Management

And so that is still flexible. I mean I noticed the footnotes in your slide, that you -- although your policy, you say, is quite clear, you still consider future CapEx spend, so it's not so clear.

Boipelo Lekubo

Management

Yes, and I mean those are standard caveats that any company would have. And we have to be responsible as well, the Board, in terms of assessing what's coming up, what lies ahead, et cetera.

Adrian Hammond

Management

Well, thank you.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Adrian, to your Mponeng question, let me just -- just repeat that again because of Mponeng, is that correct?

Adrian Hammond

Management

Yes, into the .

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Okay. Yes, the deepening is really on VCR, but then obviously there's also a bit of carbon leader that will be available to the north or west of it. But yes, at this point in time we are considering the extraction of the two shaft pillars, which is Savuka and Tau Tona, and then what we call the , which the Tau Tona Blue Block is the area that AngloGold Ashanti and had in their plants, and we are busy developing that area, and creating that flexibility. What is exciting about the Savuka and Tau Tona block is that it is, obviously, on VCR and carbon leader, and both of them has got higher grades than, for instance, that Bambanani had. So, they are very, very high-grade blocks that we can take. Obviously, they are tricky, and have to be taken with caution, and a lot of planning and that goes with that. And then, obviously, the deepening of Mponeng is certainly something that's on the court in the long-term. And at the moment we don't because we have nine-year life of mine left in our current -- with even the pillar directions that we want to do. So, since obviously something that will come a little bit later. But yes, I mean deepening the mine will actually add another 30 year of life at a very good profit to Mponeng. So, we're very happy what we experienced at Mponeng. We've got fantastic people there, very, very good performance culture, and everything in place. And then as far as the unions are concerned, yes, we still have the NUM as being the number one unit, and to NUM even after taking over where, obviously, has had a much bigger site in Mponeng. But having said, I mean we obviously work with all the different unions. And so we are busy with negotiating. We have got all the major unions in around the table, being NUM, , and also , and all the unions are around the table to have their discussions with us. So -- and we try to keep a relationship with everybody else, but NUM is still the majority union for us.

Jared Coetzer

Management

Thanks so much. Have we got any further questions?

Operator

Operator

Yes, we have a question from Leroy Mnguni from HSBC.

Leroy Mnguni

Management

Hi, thanks for the opportunity. My first question is just around the Tshepong impairment. It seems to be driven by a deterioration in your outlook for grades. And I'm just trying to reconcile that with some of your comments from your last results around expecting those grades to improve as you mine more from the higher grade producer section. Has anything changed there, maybe if you can give us a bit of color around what exactly is driving that impairment? And then just on your guidance for production, it seems there's quite a bit of production that will be lost from your South African surface operation. So, if you could just elaborate a bit on exactly what's driving that, and if it will return in , please?

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Thanks for that. First of all, Tshepong, every year we do -- as we upgrade our ore models of geological models and also our grade models, we obviously do a life of mine plan. And so, in Tshepong's case, I think deteriorates from the deepening of the mine, because the deepening of the mine is really in a high grade, so the high grade part of that will certainly continue. And we expect grades to improve going forward as we get to the needs of the ore body. So, that is still in place. I think impairment is really about the life of mine, looking at the life of mine, and also some changes in terms of certain blocks that we taken out and said, we'll not mine, because it's not too low grade. And certainly we're not going to make it. So, that's what the impairment is normally working on. And then the second question is what's really on the -- can you just remind on the second part of that question?

Leroy Mnguni

Management

Production…

Peter Steenkamp

Management

On surface, yes. Surface sources, the biggest change from last year to this year is that we're actually going to take the Kopanang plant offline from surface sources, and the Kopanang plant has actually run out of surface orders to be mined. So, what we've got left now we will do through the grade lever plant and not through Kopanang. So, Kopanang mine plant is coming to an end, we don't carry maintenance. And then obviously, as we go with the surface sources, we start with the higher grade first and then lower grade. So, there's no chances of actually bringing surface sources back going forward. I mean, what we have as surface sources is what we've got. And what we can do going forward is that we will bring in plant to actually model surface orders in the basement area. But as far as the river area is concerned, those surface sources are completed. So and the end of that high levels of surface sources at AngloGold Ashanti but we always knew that, we always knew we are only going to have a few months of that going forward. Kopanang plant obviously is now up again and maintenance and we can make a decision still in terms of are we going to actually take it down or try and do some more surface re-treatment, and that feasibilities at this point of time is ongoing.

Leroy Mnguni

Management

Right, that's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question we have is from Jared Hoover from RMB Morgan Stanley.

Jared Hoover

Management

Hi, Peter and team. I've got a few questions, please. Maybe I'll just start off with like first two. And I'll follow-up with a few more. So, my first one is relatively easy, you've given us a mine by mine asset split for FY'22, but can you give us an indication of what the total CapEx for the mine solutions TSF Extension is for Hidden Valley and for Zaaiplaats and just remind me what your gold price is that you're using to calculate your IRR. I'll leave it there for now and follow-up with a few more?

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Okay, the total CapEx spend on major CapEx as we call the project capital for Zaaiplaats will be ZAR4.5 billion but that will be spent over a very long period of time as we create new levels, we start mining and so we'll continue, there's about 10 year time that we're going to build all the declines to the bottom of the declines area. Kareerand extension is ZAR3.2 billion. That will be about a four year. Four year obviously we starting now with a soil preparation and everything else that will be what capital spend in the first year or so. Hidden Valley is what's the number of Hidden Valley is about ZAR1.4 billion, ZAR1.4 billion again that will be spent as we do the CapEx back over the time so it is ZAR1.4 billion. So those are the capital spends that we have. And the final part of the equation is ZAR800,000 a kilogram was used in the calculation of the integration everything else, kilogram was used, ZAR800,000 a kilogram.

Jared Hoover

Management

Thanks, Peter. I mean just high level that seems like quite a high number to you. Do you plan to have a sensitivity at a slightly lower gold price across what your IRRs might look like maybe I'd say 600, 650.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yes, we used I think with 700,750 and 800 and 850 and obviously 900 that we've put into that, obviously we always do sensitivities on these things. And even if the gold price do drop, I think these projects are still worth while to continue because I mean long-term they are low all-in sustaining cost operations. So they certainly go and if we go to like a ZAR700,000 kilogram, we will still be building these projects probably below that we will reconsider.

Jared Hoover

Management

Okay. Okay, great. And then my second question is you've recently made a bid for all, call it an unsuccessful bid for Golden Globe in Australia. So, obviously, there's a lot more CapEx coming up in FY'22. So my question is, is this CapEx that you're spending in South Africa and Papa New Guinea now really plan B because your intention was maybe to do acquisitions? Or should we be thinking that there's potentially more M&A to come in the future, over and above this current CapEx to prove that production profile gap between 2026 and 2030?

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Jared, I'm not sure where you get the information from but we never made a bet for Golden Globe. I think we were part of a team that looked at the asset, but we never made a bet for it. So but yes, we're always scanning the environment for opportunities that can possibly come our way. We're always on our, we're constantly looking at things at this point in time, we've got nothing in mind that we can possibly do, it must be very accretive. And also have to look in terms of how we're going to be able to manage that properly. Yes, so we have not, we don't have anything on a quarter as we speak.

Jared Hoover

Management

Okay, so fair to say that that M&A is something that is constantly in focus. And then I mean, maybe once you go past these two sort of big CapEx years 2022, '23 we could potentially see something if it meets your hurdles.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

We will, certainly we will always be on the lookout for something.

Jared Hoover

Management

Okay, and then one more question for me. Obviously, there's a step up in SIV CapEx as well. And historically, you've had issues around flexibility in your underground operations, it was made worse by COVID-19, but should we be thinking of this bump in SIV CapEx as maybe one to rectify the flexibility situation, or is just the case of depth, the level you need to spend to keep the production profile at about 1.4 million ounces?

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yes, I think it's a bit of both. We certainly have a lot to lose a little bit of time during the COVID lockdown. Remember, at one stage, we only had 50% of our people back at work. And then when we got back, we had to look after our vulnerables, we also had to look after people that was not at work. So, kind of like, the development was not always fully manned. And there's a little bit of catch up there. But I don't think it's a problem in terms of flexibility. And we've got all of that is an account in our plants going forward. But we do want to create more flexibility and do some more development. But it's also some of the operations actually getting to the end of their lives, which is like it will take some development still, because it has got about three year life, but then, three years from now there will be no development on that mine, there will only be the harvesting of the final part of the ore body. So, it's a bit of that. So yes, so it's a quite a jump, but it's because of the underperformance of both in the previous year and then a bit of catch up as far as that's concerned. But I'm not concerned that we don't have the flexibility to deliver on our plant.

Jared Hoover

Management

Okay, great. Thanks, Peter. I'll leave it there for now.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Thanks, Jared.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question we have is a follow-up from Adrian Hammond.

Adrian Hammond

Management

Hi, Peter, yes. Some follow-up questions, please. Then, just curious about costs going forward, firstly are you hiring contractors to offset the more contractors offset COVID impacts and then may be question for Boipelo, just like to get a sense of what sort of cost inflation you as a South African, a lot South African gold producers experiencing now for a normalized rented time basis, so factoring in power, diesel, labor, et cetera. What sort of inflation numbers are you experiencing? And then just perhaps a follow-up from Jared around are there opportunities you used to sometimes to do with great ambitions to explore further and diversify the portfolio. Could you give us some color on the change in the landscape since that point in time, it seems that those opportunities are harder to find. Thanks.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Okay. Thanks, Adrian. I'll kick it first, and then the third question and then you can take the second one. On the labor and contractors, I didn't know we haven't actually increased our labor comp -- our contractor complements to make us a week. We in actual fact, last year closed down Unisel, so we absorbed that labor into our operations, and we now back to normal levels, we obviously the next mine that we will close is , which got about 2000 people on the mine, and we obviously also hope that we can absorb them into operations by open-ended voluntary separations and things like that, so we done that forced retrenchments. So we've very stable as far as that's concerned, our contractor labor has been very stable. In terms of the landscape has changed, obviously, the gold price is quite an influence in terms of being able to find the kind of right assets and pay the right price for that. But we still have the ambition to go into Africa, we still have the continent of Africa now. We still - we are looking for opportunities in Southeast Asia. We will also look at some Australia as possible, but that obviously very expensive, and opportunities in South Africa, nothing of that is of the cost. And we at the moment, we believe that we've got very good projects, and we are very excited about our ability to deliver on these projects and actually deliver, that's a good challenge for us. But certainly looking at opportunities that will come away, but we had probably an opportunity in the past that we had a company that wanted to change that they've used as far as the stage is concerned, and that obviously suited us. Going forward, we're not sure what's going to happen, but I think there's also some opportunities are still available for us. But the African -- continental African dream is still there and we are always looking at opportunities to go there.

Adrian Hammond

Management

Thanks, Peter. Can I just take you up a bit more on the costs? You're now probably most marginal globally given your new guidance. And typically when costs go up so much when folks have cost savings? So are there opportunities within the group to remove costs going forward? And, yes, I think so, with that in mind with gold prices start to fall. What options do you have to offset that case? Thanks.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yes, I think Adrian if I can maybe just take the first part of that question. I think, obviously, we -- there has been quite a lot of things have got -- headwinds as far as cost is concerned, the one is obviously the electricity cost was ever increasing. And we obviously, renewables is one of the ways out, but obviously trying to find a way of actually saving costs. If we look at our absolute cost year-on-year and what we plan going forward. And our absolute cost is going up with only 5%, I've talked about operational cost that is really in the capital and the things that debt, and capital, you can either switch on and off and things like that you can go with that. But I think importantly is that we want to de-risk a portfolio that we've got. We've got certain assets, and we want to get better quality assets and actually mining a better quality as it has been -- and that will create obviously the margins that we need to go forward and be able to go through these fluctuations in a gold price. So it's really on taking these kinds of operations, developing them making sure that they perform well. Those are the cost levers that we can pull. I think all the things that we possibly can do in terms of saving cost, we've done this so huge about work that we're doing to try and de-bottlenecking all our operations to include proof of productivity, in our we call our business improvement strategies and one day when we have Investor Day I think it is worth your while to can see in what we are doing as far as that is concerned. So it's a lot of that work has been put in place, but really it's about actually getting the higher quality assets into our portfolio making a biggest part of the mix, and making sure that we drive our margin. Boipelo, would you like to take some of that?

Boipelo Lekubo

Management

You covered on the inflation aspect, Adrian.

Adrian Hammond

Management

In the past, your average inflation has been about 10% and given the dynamics of the past in any change to it.

Boipelo Lekubo

Management

Yes, I mean, we've always tried to manage it below general mining inflation obviously with our pocket of costs. Labor is obviously the biggest chunk than electricity. Peter touched on the electricity. I mean, there is that large increase and we can avoid that. But we try and manage it with through managing consumption, renewable, etc. We're in the middle of wage negotiation as so I mean, all parties are trying to conclude that as quickly as possible, and then when you look at your other costs, your consumables, etc. Those will generally be managed within normal inflation 4% to 5%.

Adrian Hammond

Management

Thanks, Boipelo.

Unidentified Company Representative

Management

Peter, I think that's all the time. We need to wrap things up.

Peter Steenkamp

Management

Yes, I just want to say, thank you very much for joining us today. I really appreciate that. Again, I think, like I said in the conclusion, we have a totally different company, we've got new challenges ahead of us to really build these projects and build world class projects. We're looking forward to that challenge, and yes, as a company we are certainly very excited to also get a huge amount of support to all the stakeholders that we have within our workers, everything else. We hopefully will conclude the wage negotiation soon, and then obviously get some stability as far as that is concerned too. So, thank you very much for being with us today. And we really appreciate your presence. Thank you.