Bret Conklin
Analyst · Gary Ransom with Dowling & Partners. Please proceed with your question
Thanks, Marita, and good morning, everyone. First quarter core earnings were $0.63, a $0.12 increase over last year. First quarter annualized core return on equity was 8.8%. The results illustrate the substantial progress we are making on strategic initiatives to drive consistent performance, long-term profitable growth and a return to double-digit ROE. Earnings drivers in Q1 were largely consistent with our expectations. As a result, we remain comfortable with our full year 2019 EPS guidance of $2 to $2.20 without any contribution from NTA. So let's look briefly at investment results before turning to the specific drivers of each of the businesses. In the first quarter, the annualized pretax portfolio yield was 5% with net investment income of $900,000, primarily due to better-than-expected alternative investment returns. As you know, these returns typically vary from quarter to quarter. Our alternative portfolio had a fair value of $330 million at March 31. That said, we still expect full year 2019 net investment income to decline about $5 million to $6 million from what we reported for full year 2018. Our new money rate of 4.3% remains below our current portfolio yield, and we expect lower prepayment activity compared to 2018. Our portfolio strategy also remains unchanged with the overall credit quality of the portfolio steady at A+. We continue to believe our prudent investment positioning will serve us well to avoid significant impairment and credit losses in a challenging environment we expect over the next several years. At March 31, our book value, excluding AOCI, had risen slightly from year-end to $29.47. Turning to Property and Casualty segment. For the quarter, core earnings were $15 million versus $9.7 million with a combined ratio at 95.5% versus 98.9% in last year's first quarter. The significant rate increases we have implemented were the primary factor driving better underlying underwriting performance. Net written premiums rose modestly on a higher rate, and we continue to expect rate increases will drive a low single-digit increase in total net written premium for the year. These increases, largely already filed and approved, average in the mid-single digits across the book. In the few markets that aren't yet meeting our profitability targets, particularly in the Southeast, we continue to shed monoline auto and non-educator business. In many of these cases, we are placing these customers with partner carriers, allowing us to maintain the household relationship. At the same time, in geographies that are outperforming, we are working with agents to support their sales efforts. We are beginning to see positive trends in new business count and expect it will accelerate over time. In Property, rate increases are tied to the higher cat and non-cat weather we saw in many geographies over the past few years. We continue to expect the full year underwriting property loss ratio to improve three or so points over 2018. Auto rates being filed are keeping us ahead of loss costs. We continue to see the trends of recent quarters continuing with elevated severity, although the increases have moderated somewhat and lower frequency. We expect auto to be profitable on an underlying basis by year-end with a accumulative 5 points of improvement in the underlying loss ratio since 2017. That loss ratio improvement is a key driver of ROE. Underwriting results benefited from $2 million in favorable reserve releases, evenly divided between Property and auto, primarily from absent year 2018. Cat losses for the quarter were up slightly from last year's first quarter due to the more frequent Midwest storms in January and February, but within the parameters we expect it. Our estimate for 2019 catastrophe losses is $45 million to $55 million or 7 to 7.5 points, up 20% from what we have initially included in 2018. We are more heavily weighting more recent years in our forecasting to reflect the impact of sustained elevated catastrophe loss trends. Looking at those historic loss trends, we typically had incurred about half of our annual cat losses in the second quarter. Our target range for the expense ratio is to be 0.5 point, plus or minus, of 27%, and the first quarter ratio was right in line at 27.2%. In last year's first quarter, the ratio benefited from an expense recovery that lowered the auto expense ratio by about two points. Our target for the combined ratio for the P&C business for the full year remains at the high 90s. Turning to the Retirement segment. We completed the purchase of Benefit Consultants Group on January 2. The sales and expenses of their retirement plan and record-keeping business are now included in our Retirement segment results beginning this quarter. As a result, we've made a few updates to the way we show the segment data in the release and financial supplement. The changes help distinguish between managed assets and assets under administration, which only generate fees. As you recall, acquiring BCG was a strategic move. They bring infrastructure capabilities through their efficient and scalable ISO 9001 compliant platform, which delivers solutions in the way that employers prefer them. As Marita said, we are actively working to integrate our existing Retirement Advantage accounts onto BCG's platform to gain efficiencies and improve the customer experience. That another way, BCG's capabilities bolster the value proposition we provide to school districts nationwide. While their contribution to Retirement net income is expected to be material for the next several years, they will be in our goal to achieving our growth objectives. Turning back to Retirement results. Annuity sales were up 9% for the quarter and continue to be an important part of our product set as they appeal to the financial objectives identified by our customers, while complementing our growing suite of fee-based products. Positive DAC unlocking for the quarter was due to favorable equity market performance, reversing a portion of the negative DAC unlocking in the fourth quarter of 2018. As anticipated, core earnings, excluding DAC unlocking, were down about $1 million for the first quarter to $11 million due to the lower investment spread. We remain on track to our full year guidance of earnings on the same basis in the range of $39 million to $41 million. Turning to the Life segment. Our agents continue to introduce educators to the right products to address their financial needs, while leveraging our recently introduced ease of doing business initiative to cross-sell more policies into our existing customer base. First quarter sales were solid and even with last year's equally strong first quarter. We expect growth throughout the remainder of the year as we help more of our customers see how life insurance can contribute to the financial well-being of their families. Mortality cost rose in line with the growth and aging of our enforced policy book, and expenses were up slightly. As a result, core earnings were $3.3 million compared with $3.8 million last year. For the full year, we continue to expect earnings, excluding DAC unlocking, of $15 million to $17 million with full year sales growth in the double digits. In summary, we are making important progress in the key drivers of ROE improvement, in particular, improving underlying performance in our P&C business. We believe the results of the first quarter bode very well for the remainder of 2019 and beyond, even before we take into account the opportunities that NTA brings. As Marita discussed, NTA will strengthen our ability to meet the product, distribution and infrastructure needs and expectation of the nation's education market. We expect our progress will continue, and we're very excited about what the future holds for Horace Mann. Thank you. And with that, I'll turn it back to Heather for Q&A.