Owen Kratz
Analyst · Marshall Adkins with Raymond James. Please go ahead
Thanks for the compliment, but I have a feeling I'm going to let you down on this. There is a lot in that. If the market goes back to 60, it depends on what happens in the shales as to what the knock-on effect is going to be offshore, but certainly 60 revives a lot of the commerciality in the projects. I think the first commercial projects that come back on stream for the deepwater are the intervention production enhancement projects. Of course, that -- the $60, then makes the net asset value on a lot of the marginal fields more positive and therefore, defers P&A work. So, $60, I don't know if it really moves the needle that much for our expectations. The rigs, the drilling programs, again it depends on the drilling programs and that again depends on the knock-on effect from what the shales do. So, it's very hard for me to predict. The way we're managing the company is just assume that we're going to have tough times for a while. The competitive landscape, as you can see from the discussion on the acceleration of this take-or-pay contract and the plus and minuses that we constantly deal with, I think that gives you a really firsthand insight as to why the rigs are ill-suited to come and compete in this spot market, because you are constantly changing your schedule. You're constantly moving things around and that's what gives us a competitive advantage. That extends beyond just the drillers to the competitors in the non-rig intervention market. We had a joint venture between FMC and Suez called FTO that looked like it could have been a viable competitor. Since the announcement of the merger, they decided to close that effort down. I don't think that it's a statement on the viability of rig-less intervention. I think it's just a timing issue for them -- would be my guess. We have seen a recent acquisition of Oceaneering to buy Blue Ocean. Blue Ocean is a small private company with a couple of light intervention seal systems. I think it's worth noting that Oceaneering was in the non-rig intervention business a few years back in a joint venture with Superior where they built two seal systems. That joint venture didn't really pan out for them. They retained one of the systems and they've never done anything with it. So, their acquisition of Blue Ocean, I can't speak for their mindset or what their intentions are, but I do take it as a validation of the non-rig intervention markets viability. Beyond that, in the North Sea, we still have a serious competitor in the light intervention, which is Island Offshore. They have four vessels. One of them works in the U.K. sector and the others in the Norwegian sector. They are probably the most viable competitor that we have, but again, it's on the light intervention side and they don't -- currently they don't have diving capability, which gives us a big leg up. Let's see, who else am I leaving out, Wild Well, which is part of Superior. Since they canceled the joint venture with Oceaneering, Superior has continued in the non-rig intervention market with Wild Well providing a seal system, again, light intervention. They’ve done some pretty creative things. I think they’ve just announced a new tool for going down hole that expands the capabilities of the seal system for -- in P&A -- in the upper P&A sector. And there’re steps that we can take easily to offset that competitor. I don't see a real competitive advantage there.