Owen Kratz
Analyst · your question
Thanks, Tony. The third quarter came in a bit better than we had expected a quarter ago. The fourth quarter will be softer for the reasons that both Scotty and Tony have mentioned. It is just far too early to say much about 2016, other than to say we don't expect any improvement in industry conditions going into 2016. However, the uncertainty for 2016 may be clearer once our customers go through their budgeting process. Once that occurs, we should be able to provide greater granularity on the outlook of 2016. In general, though, we expect robotics to drop off in 2016 versus their performance in 2015. This is the result of legacy work performed in 2015 to support subsea construction tailing off, combined with a slow year of trenching. We plan to react to the drop-off in robotics activity by reducing our chartered vessel fleet by not renewing charters for vessels that have expirations in 2016. Furthermore, we are in discussions with ship owners for the remainder of the fleet to lower the charter rates. Well intervention will continue to be hampered by our customers' reluctance to spend in the face of continuing low oil prices. It is difficult to say how much this will impact until we get through the budgeting process. We do know that the work is out there that needs to be done to keep wells flowing or enhance remaining production. The P&A markets will be regulatory driven, more so in the Gulf of Mexico than the North Sea. However, our customers continue to seek ways to put off expenditures. In any event, well intervention should be one of the first activities to see recovery and this could be independent of commodity pricing, as sooner or later the work just has to be done. Management's job through this down cycle is to preserve the balance sheet through ongoing efforts to reduce spending, but also seek opportunities to increase cash generation from the current asset base. We believe that our balance sheet has sufficient capacity for us to complete our capital program, meet our debt obligations, and emerge in a free cash flow positive position. While we do anticipate growth in EBITDA beyond 2016 from new assets entering service that are already under contract, we also see further opportunity to reduce our costs. I would like to address our contracts in Brazil, due to concerns regarding the general economic conditions that exist with Petrobras in Brazil. I would like to comment on Brazil in a more detailed fashion, but I’m limited on what I'm able to say about the Petrobras contract situation. First, construction of the two vessels we will be chartering from CM Offshore is going well. The vessel construction is proceeding on time and on budget. The other side of the question is our Petrobras contracts. As we mentioned on our last earnings call, as part of its cost-cutting measures Petrobras reached out to many of the service companies it does business with, including us. We are currently in good-faith discussions with Petrobras regarding these contracts, with the objective of reaching a solution that assists Petrobras and also makes sense to us, although, as we all know, the environment in Brazil is dynamic. I have been on record in the past as saying that so far we don't see any indications from Petrobras that our contracts are in jeopardy and nothing has transpired to date that alters that impression. However, we cannot be more definitive about our discussions of the outcome at this time. Let me also address the Q7000. We previously deferred delivery of the vessel from mid-2016 to mid-2017. We're also in discussions with the shipyard to provide Helix the optionality to further defer delivery until as far as the end of 2018. We would have the option of taking delivery of the vessel at any time before then, depending on its state of completion. We are negotiating this as a cautionary measure to defer capital spending and maintain liquidity through this downturn. We remain committed to the completion of the Q7 and believe the market interest for this vessel will develop over time. All in all, we plan to take a cautious approach as we manage through this challenging period of our market. We also feel that we are well positioned and on the leading edge for any recovery of the offshore market. We also feel that the need for our services will intensify over time, even in the absence of commodity price improvement. Finally, we do believe that we can be profitable and grow even in the current market as we adjust our contract, our costs and our contracting philosophy. I'm not saying things can't get worse, but I feel that we are in a relatively good position for the market going forward and for the inevitable recovery in activity. Erik?