Christopher J. Nassetta - Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Inc.
Management
All right. So, yeah, on the group side I think I gave the number, I intended to. For the first half of the year, it's up, call it 5% to 7%. For the full year, it's up probably 2% to 3%, something like that. So that obviously implies the second half of the year is lighter. Part of that's just sort of the convention cycle, part of that is second half of the year is a long way away, so but – that's the full year sort of look on it. On the volume question on transient, the short answer is no. We don't really have a lot of guarantees of volume. There are incentives built into pricing so that, you know, they're not guarantees as much as you get a better price if your volume is higher or you get a worse price if it's lower. But it's not – it doesn't – the set-up is not in the form of a guarantee. Anecdotally, again it goes back to the question I think Harry asked about what are you hearing from CEOs, what are you hearing from customers, you know, CEOs of companies that are big customers of ours. I'm not hearing anybody really say, you know that, hey, we're going to be cutting back on a lot of volume. I mean, they're obviously pushing back on our trying to push rates up, that's why we're at 3% to 4%, but they know occupancy levels are high, so they're accepting that. I think if I had to summarize my discussions anecdotally I'd say it feels like flat, it feels like sort of flat volume. I think if the economy gets worse I think it'll – as I said, I think it'll drive volumes lower. But I think if the economy gets a little bit better, it'll keep it flat or maybe you'll see a little bit more. As I said, the highest correlation to demand in the hotel business is non-residential fixed investment. I've been studying this for 15 years and it's ebbed and flowed in terms of what the R-squared is, but it's always been very high. If you look at what's been happening this year as we've seen business transient growth levels really drop precipitously. I mean, we were in the 6% to 8% range, now we're in the 1% range, and you look at what's happened with non-residential fixed investment, non-residential fixed investment is going backwards. It's negative growth this year. I think everybody's – again, broader expectations are that that's going to, you know, that that's going to increase next year. If non-residential fixed investment increases next year, I think you will see flat or increasing volumes in business transient. So, I think we should all watch that and the broader economy carefully because we're going to track – generally on the top line we're going to track in line with that business transient very much so.