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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome the to the quarterly earnings conference call for Herbalife. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce your host for today’s program, Mr. Michael Johnson, Chairman and CEO; please go ahead.
MJ
Michael Johnson
Management
Good morning and thank you everyone for joining our third quarter 2009 earnings conference call for Herbalife. With me today is our company’s Executive Vice President, Des Walsh; Richard Goudis, our CFO; and Brett Chapman, our General Counsel. I’d now like to turn the call over to Brett to read the company’s Safe Harbor language.
BC
Brett Chapman
Management
Good morning. Before we begin and as a reminder, during this conference call, comments maybe made that include some forward-looking statements. These statements involve risk and uncertainty and as you know actual results may differ materially from those discuss or anticipated. We encourage you to refer to yesterday’s earnings release and our SEC filings for a complete discussion of the risks associated with these forward-looking statements and with our business. In addition, during this call certain financial performance measures maybe discussed that differ from comparable measures contained in our financial statements that prepared in accordance with the U.S. generally accepted accounting principles. Refer to you by the Securities and Exchange Commission as non-GAAP financial measures. We believe these measures assist management and investors in evaluating and comparing period-to-period results of operations in a more meaningful and consistent manner. Please refer to the Investor Relations section of our website, www.herbalife.com to find our third quarter press release containing a reconciliation of these measures. Additionally when management makes reference to volume during this conference call we are referring to volume points. Now I’ll turn to back Michael.
MJ
Michael Johnson
Management
Thanks Brett. We had a really strong third quarter. Our results can be summed up simply. Our business is gaining momentum, led by active distributors focus seen on daily consumption business methods and recruiting. Yesterday, we reported an adjusted EPS of $0.85 which exceeded our internal expectations and also beat the high end of guidance by $0.16. Reflecting this strong performance coupled with the current positive business trends we are raising our full year EPS estimates by $0.19 of $3.19 to $3.22 and we are providing EPS guidance for 2010 for the first time of $3.50 to $3.65. The stronger than expected third quarter performance was led by local currency sales growth of 7.5% versus 2008 reflecting the resiliency of many of our key markets during difficult global economic times. Including some of our largest such as the US, Korea, Brazil, and Taiwan. The broad strength of the quarter in terms of local currency sales growth is best represented by the fact that four of our six regions and eight of our top ten markets experienced growth during the quarter. Among the most exciting stories to us during the quarter was India which broke into our top ten volume markets reflecting the focus of our distributors on daily consumption business methods in this large and emerging market and the return of growth in Mexico, our number two market in September. Turning to our reported net sales we were essentially flat with 2008 as accept headwinds had a negative impact on our growth of 780 basis points. Once again, the broad strength of our business was reflected in the fact that eight of our top ten markets reported year-over-year net sales growth and collectively our top ten markets reported growth of 4.1% despite the negative effect of currency fluctuations in terms…
DW
Des Walsh
Management
Thank you, Michael. Our business truly has been gaining momentum as we move towards the back half of 2009. The excitement among our distributors is palpable. I can speak firsthand about that energy as it has me to advance in distributor meetings from South Korea, St. Petersburg, Russia, Italy, Prague in the Czech Republic, Jackson whole, Wyoming, Mexico City, Mexico and already this quarter, Nanjing China, Atlanta Georgia, Frankfurt, Germany and Maracaibo, Venezuela. All in all, in these meetings we saw approximately 75,000 distributors. Now let me provide highlights from our top market. Our number one market, the United States, accounted for 22.8% of the company’s reported net sales which grew 4.5% versus the same quarter last year, and was ahead of our expectations. We are proud of the fact that unlike many companies, we are growing our US business in 2009. The United States Latin market business represented 69% of the country’s net sales and was up 7% versus the prior year. These two provides is were down 5.1% compared to the third quarter last year, but reflecting the strength of this market the average number of supervisors ordering monthly increased by 13.4% from the same period last year. As we have been indicating for the past year, once the market transitions to daily consumption, we believe that the average number of supervisors ordering becomes a more relevant metric and we are planning to introduce this metric more broadly to the investment community starting in 2010. Net sales in the general segment of the US market decreased by 5.3% versus the third quarter, new supervisors were down 18%, and the average number of supervisors ordering during the quarter decreased by 7.3%. However, we are seeing very encouraging signs among one significant segment of the general market in the US.…
RG
Rich Goudis
Management
Thanks Des. We’ll start the financial portion of our update this morning by giving you some of the highlights of our third quarter results compared to the guidance we provided on August 3 and we’ll conclude with a review of our guidance for the fourth quarter and for 2010. In summary for the third quarter, adjusted EPS of $0.85 was $0.16 above the high end of our third quarter EPS guidance range. Reflecting higher local currency sales growth which was contributed $0.11, the favorable impact of country mix and currencies which was a penny, net of hedging, lower than expected operating expenses was $0.03 and a slight improvement in our effective tax rate contributed a penny. Local currency sales growth was the principal contribute the other the EPS upside in the quarter as we finished the quarter with a $7.5 increase in local currency sales versus the prior year. Eight of our top ten market reported local currency sales growth at 12.4% which to me indicates the broad strength of our revenue growth and the underlying volume momentum in our business as we exit 2009. The strong local currency growth for the Asia-Pacific region and in particular Taiwan and Korea was a meaningful contributor to our upside in the third quarter. The favorable results in these markets reflect their successful adoption to the Nutrition Club DMO from early in the form of Commercial Clubs. In addition we saw stronger than expected growth in markets such as Malaysia and India, the growth and each of these markets has been primarily driven by the successful transition to daily consumption business models as well. Most importantly, our top two markets, the US and Mexico, both exceeded our local currency sales expectations contained within our guidance for the quarter. As Des mentioned earlier Mexico,…
OP
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Tim Ramey - D.A. Davidson.
TD
Tim Ramey - D.A. Davidson
Analyst
Talked a little bit about reformulating nine products and there’s been some buzz about maybe changing packaging as well. Is there anything that you can comment on packaging changes for the key Formula 1 products?
MJ
Michael Johnson
Management
We’re going to give you more insight to that in December and early next year at our 30 anniversary celebration in Orlando Florida. We’re going to rollout a completely repackaged line and that will be a variety of thing delivery systems, different packaging sizes in different packaging look. So we’re going to save some of that for a little while effect a lot of while effect. Our ongoing upgrade is to reflect, frankly, new science, new technology that’s out there and we are constantly looking at the architecture of these products to upgrade them. We’ve launched two new products this year already. We’re really excited about what is taking place. We just showed the Board eight more new reprogrammed products. We’re working closely with distributors to make sure that these are well understood and accepted by our distributor base in the market and easy for the consumers to understand. We’re going to market them with two or three key phrases for each and every one of them. New and improved, similar to what you see in a traditional consumer packaged good companies and that’s what you’ll see out of us coming now and in the future.
TD
Tim Ramey - D.A. Davidson
Analyst
You mentioned your balance sheet is strong which it is and you want to keep it that way. Why not use a little bit more of that capacity for share repurchase? Rich seems to think the stock price is going higher. You disagree or?
RG
Rich Goudis
Management
That’s up to the key ratio of the stock right now, how high we get. It’s now at all being of course supply and demand. We’re going to repurchase shares throughout the year. We’ve got a lot of current facility to do it. We’ve got a $300 million authorized to us and then an additional $50 million in cash. So we’re confident that we’ll be returning money to investors all throughout the year.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Doug Lane - Jeffries & Co.
Doug Lane - Jefferies & Co.: Des, you talked about Asia and the daily consumption model but the numbers there are just really terrific and I was wondering if there was something else going on there from a macro perspective that’s driving such strong growth in Asia-Pacific including China.
DW
Des Walsh
Management
I actually everything, so it’s always a combination of factors. There’s never only one thing that drives that growths, but obviously clearly we believe the expansion of the Club market is the great key factor also there’s other factors there’s many meetings taking place, HOMs, because obviously the Clubs are creating the excitement calls distributors more meetings mean more attendees and you’ve gotten engaged distributors working together. So really I think it’s a combination of all those factors.
Doug Lane - Jefferies & Co.: Can you give us from where you sit today how you think Vietnam will impact things that’s a large population market is that going to be one of those markets that just takes off with a bang and then kind of there’s backing and filling a few quarters out or do you think it will be a slow build?
DW
Des Walsh
Management
So, that we are very confident about the future of Vietnam. What’s particularly encouraging, Doug is that we’ve got many distributors who are actually going there and will begin operating Nutrition Clubs from the beginning. In fact, many of you know, arriving there in a couple of days. He’ll be conducting Nutrition Club trainings and so Nutrition Clubs will be a very significant part of that business from the outset. That gives us great confidence about the stable long term growth there.
Doug Lane - Jefferies & Co.: Lastly, we haven’t talked about Eastern Europe for a while it continues to be a robust direct selling market for many people. Any plans to ramp up the entry into Eastern Europe here?
DW
Des Walsh
Management
So just as other companies, we’re actually seeing growth in Eastern Europe as well. You know Poland, one of the significant markets, very strong. We have recently hired a new head of Russia and the CIS market have very strong individual, so we are certainly investing and looking for further growth in Russia and CIS in Eastern Europe.
Doug Lane - Jefferies & Co.: Do you still think that you’re underrepresented there?
DW
Des Walsh
Management
Very much so, Doug, no question.
OP
Operator
Operator
Your next question comes from Chris Ferrara - Banc of America.
Chris Ferrara – Banc of America: Just, I wanted to get a sense for a couple of things with respect to your next year’s volume growth guidance. First, I guess what kind of lift are you assuming for I guess the combination of all the six new markets you guys are going to be entering?
MJ
Michael Johnson
Management
Chris, I think the 60 markets are looking at next year are more strategic fits where they’re in neighboring countries or they’re in markets where our distributors want to go, specifically in the Middle East. I think that probably the bigger impact to next year’s volume growth is our assumption of what Vietnam will do; obviously we’re opening it with just two months in 2009. We’ll have the full impact next year and we’re quite excited about Vietnam. It’s got a very youthful population. They seem very accepting to direct selling. We’re getting meeting minute updates daily here, the last couple days and it seems very exciting as this starts. We’ll probably have more contribution from Vietnam next year than we do the other six because they’ll open throughout the course of next year.
Chris Ferrara – Banc of America: You don’t want to put a number on that, I guess, percentage.
MJ
Michael Johnson
Management
We got sense to few years ago you recall used to give out guidance by region and then we had to re-guide for Mexico and we lost 20 plus percent market capital day so we got out of that practice.
Chris Ferrara – Banc of America: Can you talk about what broadly you’re assuming as far as sequential trends for key markets, I guess in particular North America and Mexico? I’m not asking what you actually think they’re going to grow but I mean is your 5% to 6% volume growth for fiscal ‘10 implying simply that current sequential trends stay where they’re and that growth becomes more function of comp or you actually assuming that sequential trends in those big markets actually improve from here.
MJ
Michael Johnson
Management
Clearly, I think Mexico; I think the sequential trends we would expect would continue to improve. I think this market has shown tremendous resiliency in the last year. Having to work through not only the global economic and local economic issues, but also the 15% VAT. They established a very strong base early in the year of $40 to $42 million volume points a month. I think you continue to see that sequentially grow this year. We’re doing some very interesting things, which we’ll go into more depth at our Investor Day, that we believe will open up more of the market and create more access to our products so we’re definitely looking at more sequential growth in Mexico next year. On to the U.S. I think Des really alluded to we’re starting to see the embracement from our general market of the daily consumption model and as you know, over the last couple years, that’s been a drag on our numbers in the US and if that turns positive next year, that could bode very well for the US numbers.
Chris Ferrara – Banc of America: Then I guess can you just give a little bit more color I guess around SG&A. I think we talked a little bit about what the effect was of Venezuela was in the quarter but how should we think about SG&A and your general cost structure as we move into fiscal 2010.
MJ
Michael Johnson
Management
Yes, specifically in the third quarter there was a $6.5 million shift between cost of sales and SG&A, so that should be noted. As it relates to how we look going forward, we expect to get leverage out of SG&A. We will this proportionally invest behind distributor facing activities. That’s pretty much a tenant here and we typically try to leverage our fixed components, the Herbalife staff. So I would expect to see and for you to model year-over-year improvement in leverage in SG&A.
OP
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) I’m not showing any further questions at this time.
MJ
Michael Johnson
Management
Well, thank you everybody for joining us back in January, we set a goal for 2009 and it was really simple. Let’s beat 2008. The rest of the world was turning upside down and we decided to turn right side up. We can’t control some of the things in our business. The FX volatility that is one area that, we just can’t control. So our efforts have been focused on the areas of the business that we can influence and control. We set out a goal to have more meetings, focus on daily consumption, expand the product, enhance the brand and continue to improve service to our distributors. As you heard today with the strong volume point performance in the third quarter and our outlook for the fourth quarter, we are much more optimistic that we’ll achieve a record volume point in 2009. In fact, our guidance suggests growth of approximately 1.5%. Turning to the bottom line, our guidance indicates that we’ll have our second most profitable year in the company’s 29 year history not bad considering the times. If we were not impacted by unfavorable FX fluctuations for most of 2009 we would have been also been able to post record EPS along with our record volume. We are very proud that even during the most challenging economy of our lifetimes, Herbalife distributors and our employees have been able to weather this storm better than most. As we look to 2010, we will continue to invest in the tools, the training, and resources necessary to further support distributor’s success. We’ll expand our business into new countries and achieve deeper penetration in our existing markets. We believe this should lead to an ongoing positive momentum in our volume trends. We will also continue to improve our cost structure while shifting our spending towards distributor activities which should help drive growth and create higher free cash flow. We have a tremendous business led by independent distributors in 70 countries, now 72 around the world as we close out 2009, we will continue to focus on areas of the business that we can favorably impact, improving our products, business opportunity brand and image to position us for strong top line growth in 2010. I look forward to seeing a lot of you at our meetings next week in New York and Boston and again in December. Come on and join us will open up a Herbalife to you. To continue, we continue our discussions with you and the Herbalife opportunity. Thanks everybody. We appreciate it. Thanks for joining us on our earnings call today.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for your participation in today’s conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.