Phillips Baker
Analyst · B. Riley Securities. Your line is open
Thanks Carlos. We've labeled Greens Creek on this slide, the foundation of Hecla's future. Since as we grow, Greens Creek will continue to be the foundation providing stability and consistency in our cash flow and production well into the future. The mine reported a strong year, which could have been even better without the weather reducing 12 days of production in the fourth quarter. Now we expect the mine to have another consistent year in 2024 with production expected to be about 8.8 million to 9.2 million ounces. So a little less silver and also produce a little less gold due to mine sequencing, where we're mining lower grades, but we will produce a bit higher zinc, the zinc grades are a bit higher. So the cost per ounce will be higher. We also are increasing the capital, replacing some mobile and mill equipment as risk mitigation is operating at around 2,600 tons per day, it becomes particularly important. At this higher throughput, we really need everything to be more reliable, because there's not really an opportunity to catch up if we have an upset. And like we've done at Greens Creek for 30 years, we still see opportunities to have lower costs, that you know these investments to allow us to have lower costs, and also increased recoveries with some of the investments. Slide 11 shows our planned ‘24 surface and underground exploration programs, which will be testing multiple targets with significant potential to add resources. When Greens Creek started, the mine had a mine plan of seven years and now 37 years later, the mine plan is 14 years. This past year's underground exploration had good success in seven of the eight zones drilled with four of those zones in the fourth quarter. So we're very excited about this year's program that coordinates the drilling underground with the surface drilling in the East Ore, the Upper Plate and the Gallagher. We will also drill in the land package we recently acquired, that's the Mammoth claims. We've had an interest in acquiring these claims for at least 20 years. And then at Cliff Creek which has been known to be a very prospective area, but it's – as it's called Cliff Creek, it's almost inaccessible. We started mapping this past year, but had logistical issues. But we noted what we need to do and we have a contractor who we think he’s going to be able to do it. So our focus is not just on expanding high-grade mineralization, but it's also in making new discoveries, new discoveries at Cliff Creek potentially and Mammoth claims. Now, Greens Creek is a premier silver mine. It's actually the 11th largest in the world, and I just want to congratulate the team on delivering excellent and consistent results and giving it a great future, because this is truly a world-class asset. So let's turn to slide 12. And if Greens Creek is the foundation of Hecla's future, Lucky Friday is the pillar of near-term growth. The value, consistency, culture and leadership that Lucky Friday brings, makes it our second cornerstone asset. If you put this together with Greens Creek, these two mines make us the largest silver producer in the United States. The mine restarted in early January, as Carlos mentioned. Production should be about 5 million ounces. Cost per ounce should be similar to Greens Creek. Capital will be about 15 million less this year than last year, and that's about the same as what we had in 2022. Despite a 19-year mine plan, we are focusing on the potential to expand the mine to the east at the current elevation. So we are doing drilling and exploration to the east. Now, there's lots of unknowns, but success could mean more production and lower costs. And with the mine already stabilized, we're starting to work on small improvements to allow higher throughput, like the five new cyclones that we're putting in at the mill, which will be installed in June. Now I'm going to move to slide 13. At Keno Hill, we're struck by two things. First, the ore body is growing with a similar or better quality. And I'm going to take a minute to talk about exploration that makes me say that. I'll do that in a couple of minutes. First though, I want to talk about the second thing we're struck by, which is the safety and environmental performance that's not met our standard. Fixing them is not an overnight exercise, and given the long life that we see, we are laser-focused but patient on improving it. On safety, it means changing people's attitudes and habits, and where we can, engineering out risks. So we've taken many of our senior people from our corporate technical team and also at the Lucky Friday and have them rotating site. Basically what they are doing is mentoring the Keno team. And then an example of engineering out the risk, we've budgeted a cemented tailings backfill plant for Birmingham to enable it to mine and underhand mining, which would be safer than the way we're mining now. For the environmental issues we have at Keno, we're doing studies to make the site meet our standards. So one of the things that's come out of these studies is putting in a new water filtration plant at Birmingham, which we'll build this year, that will cost maybe $3 million to $5 million. Now at this point, we're not giving guidance as to when we'll be in production and reporting unit costs. We want to make sure that we have the safety and the environmental issues right, without the pressure of having the combined production targets with costs. What I can say is, though, that we think we're going to produce about 3 million ounces of silver. We expect to spend about $15 million to $17 million a quarter, and then we'll be $30 to $34 million of capital. So 2024 at current prices should be a small investment year that we do make at Keno. But given the exploration potential and the long mine plan, now's the time to get it right. Similar to what happened at Greens Creek, almost 40 years ago. So speaking of Greens Creek, what we've decided to do is to try to create more value by having Greens Creek and Keno try to implement as many synergies as possible. They are actually only two hours apart, and it's a seven-hour drive between the two sites once you get to Skagway, which is a short 40-minute flight. Now, many of the supplies for Keno actually go by Greens Creek to Skagway, and then they get trucked to Keno. So what we're going to do is, we're going to promote Brian Erickson, who's our VP and GM at Greens Creek, and Kim Campbell, our Greens Creek controller, to provide leadership to both operations. Brian, in addition to having had the job as Greens Creek's GM over the last two decades, has led various departments. He's headed up mining, he's done surface ops, he's done maintenance. And Kim has led purchasing, warehousing, accounting and a number of other functions. So we don't know exactly what the synergies will be or what their value will be, and we'll try to outline that over time. But given the maturity of the systems that we have at Greens Creek, this really should accelerate Keno into becoming a strong cash flow generating mine. So now let me go to the exploration at Keno and this is on slide 14. Our drilling programs continue to provide quite remarkable mineralized drill hole intercepts from both underground definition and surface exploration drilling. And I'm only going to talk about Birmingham this morning, but realized that there are a series of other targets at Keno that some of which we will drill this next year, that will actually get more drilling than or as much drilling as Birmingham will get from surface. If you look at the plan view that's in the middle of the slide and it's marked BB-Prime in the upper corners, you'll see that the Birmingham deposit has a number of zones, the Etta, Arctic, Bear, Northeast and Deep Northeast. And then the small image to the right shows BB-Prime going through those zones and then you can see AA-Prime is a cross section. That actually goes through the Bear zone. And if you look at the leftmost image, that's the AA-Prime in the upper corners. And the Bear zone has three veins, the main vein, the footwall vein and the Bear vein. And what I want to draw your attention to is the 54 ounce over 39.5 feet, that is the transverse vein between the main and the footwall vein. This is the widest, highest grade intercept that we're aware of. We had a similar grade intercept a quarter earlier, just not quite as wide. Looking back at the BB-Prime image that's in the middle, there's a red star, that it’s the high grade mineralization that's more than a thousand feet deeper than in previous drilling. The longstanding view is that Keno's potential was only in the top 300, 400 feet from the surface. We now have evidence that the high grade mineralization can be hosted, the full depth of the one kilometer favorable basal quartzite host rock unit. And so these two holes I really think are emblematic of the potential of Keno. Now turning to slide 15, last year we concluded that we could not generate enough margin mining two separate underground deposits in open pit, like I said at the beginning of our remarks. We just had too many people. We actually had 1,100 people between employees and contractors. And there just wasn't enough value in the rock to operate the mine that way. So we made the decision to simplify the operations by shutting down the underground. And so our team has really very successfully implemented the change. 2024 will have about 0.5 year of underground operations as we mine out the already developed scopes and then we'll have only surface tons coming out of the 160 pit. Then go to slide 16, and what this shows is our production costs and capital guidance. Our 2024 silver production guidance shows an increase of about 15% to 20%. This year 30% by 2026. Silver cost guidance is slightly higher than ’23, cash costs are at $3 to $3.75, AISC between $13 and $14.50. So we still have substantial margin at current and even lower prices and proves that we're really the low cost leader in the industry. Gold cost guidance is lower. Capital guidance is lower as well as we've completed and seen the benefits of the major projects such as the service hoist and the ore bunker at the Lucky Friday. Before I open the call to questions, I want to leave you with the increasing role that silver is playing in solar and the energy transition. And on slide 17, you'll see some of the key numbers that highlights this. 2023 was the 22nd year in a row that renewable capacity set a new record. So it's just continued to grow year after year. And 75% of this renewable capacity in 2023, the additions were solar. Just in the United States, solar capacity has expanded by 44% a year on average since 2009. Now it takes about a $0.5 million ounces of silver per gigawatt of solar that's installed. So in 2023, silver demand in solar increased by about 50 million ounces to 190 million ounces, and that's a 12% growth rate in the last 10 years. So to put this 50 million ounces in context, that's the equivalent of five new Green Streets or 10 new Lucky Fridays. So not likely to happen that we're going to have production that's going to increase at the same pace that this demand for silver for solar is growing at. So that means we're going to have to rely upon above ground silver. In order to get that, I think you're going to need higher prices to meet that demand. So with that, Jeannie, I'd like to open the call to questions. Jeannie, I'd like to open the call to questions.