Phil Baker
Analyst · Heiko Ihle with H.C. Wainwright
Thanks Lauren. Let’s go to slide 16. And this shows our consolidated production guidance for 2021 through 2023. And at this point, nothing has changed in that guidance. So, let’s focus on where the slide shows our cost outlook. And you can see there that we’ve significantly lowered our silver cost outlook, primarily because of the byproduct credits and the lower treatment charges at Greens Creek that Lauren talked about. Now, this new guidance, if you look at this, it adds about $3 an ounce to our expected margin. So, at current prices, we think we have about $10 an ounce of free cash flow generation just from the silver operations. The other thing to point out is that with the consistency that we have at Greens Creek and Lucky Friday at full production, and the increasing grade that we see at Lucky Friday that our U.S. silver production’s expected to reach about 15 million ounces by 2023. And this is double what we had in 2018. Now, before we open the line for questions, I want to talk for just a few moments about silver, maybe a little more than we’ve done on these calls before. And if you look at slide 17, I want to do this because this time is really like no other for silver. If you think about it, the photographic demand decline, which was a governor on total demand over the last 20 years is now long over. Industrial demand has been growing at a 2% growth rate for the last decade. And it’s continuing to grow, and we think will be fueled even more by the same factors that are fueling copper, this energy transformation. Industrial demand has generally been strong for the last 20 years and looks to be even stronger with the current fiscal and monetary policies. And then, finally, miners are challenged to substantially reverse a five-year annual decline in mined silver production. We actually mined 110 million ounces less than the high of 2016. So, getting back to where we were is going to be hard. Now, it’s just industrial demand continues to grow at the same rate as the last decade, so that 2% growth rate, we think -- and we think this is going to understate it, because of the energy demand we’re going to have. The world’s going to need 70 million more ounces of silver per year. Now, this doesn’t sound like much, because it’s only 7% of the current market, until you realize that to meet that demand, even if no mines are exhausted, you need seven new mines a year that are the size of Greens Creek, which is the United States largest silver mine or you need [indiscernible] to produce about 150% more or you need Codelco who has a substantial byproduct of silver production to produce 3 times as much silver. And so, our view is it’s not likely that even combining all the different companies that are in the industry that are trying to grow their silver production that we’re going to be able to produce silver that is equivalent to seven Greens Creek mines. But, if we do, they’re going to be in riskier jurisdictions. And we believe that over the next decade, we are in a market that’s well positioned for a silver squeeze to happen. Now, this is not the sort of silver squeeze the investors [ph] were thinking about, but it’s a squeeze nonetheless, because it’s just that demand has already risen faster than supply, and it’s positioned to continue to do so. The result of this squeeze and -- prices will rise and the shortfall is going to be met by above ground stocks. And I’m struck, if you look at what happened in 2020, when ETF and coin demand rose dramatically, prices rose 50% over the roughly average silver price of 2018 and 2019. So, what do we think the high-end and low silver price will be over the coming decade? Let’s first give you the lows. We think we we’ll have higher lows. We don’t think we’ll have lows for any significant period of time to be below $18 to $20 an ounce. And for the highs, there’s no reason, silver highs will not do what gold and copper have done. And what’s that? They both either exceeded or have just come in just below their all time highs. So, to see a $50 plus silver price is not unreasonable. So, one final thought on how you should think about silver. What it has become is the precious copper or the industrial gold. And the reason I say that is there’s really no metal quite like silver. It’s needed an application similar to copper, but unlike copper, it’s an investable metal with lots of investment options. You have the above ground stocks, you have ETFs, you have coins. And silver is like gold, but unlike gold, only about 20% of the demand for silver is investment. And for gold, only about 10% is industrial demand. So, think of silver as precious copper or industrial gold. And of course, Hecla is in a unique position as the largest silver producer in the U.S. We produce a third of all the silver produced in the United States, and that production is growing. We’re the oldest silver mining company. And we have a history of outperforming silver and every other mining company when the silver prices went up, which obviously we think that’s what’s going to happen over the course of the coming decade. So, with that operator, I’d like to open the line for questions.