Ed Fritsch
Analyst · Citigroup. Please go ahead
Thanks, Brendan and good morning. Over the past few years the macroeconomic conditions have been fairly consistent. While there has been some volatility, historically low interest rates in a virtual absence of inflation has led to a steady cadence of modest economic growth. All the while new supply has been restricted in the office sector and cap rates for BBD Office steadily declined. That environment generally led to a steady performance across our markets as occupancies and rents have improved. As we roll into 2017, we see the potential for a change in the trajectory of macroeconomic factors. This would include the scale of economic growth, inflation, interest rates, tax reform and the regulatory environment. It’s difficult to predict what impact these variables may have on the overall U.S. economy, good, bad or indifferent, regardless we believe Highwoods is well positioned for the following reasons: First, the demographic trends across our footprint are strong: our markets have population growth roughly double the national average, high-performing job growth, driven by the business friendly environment in our right-to-work states, and a highly desirable quality of life with below average cost of living. Second, strong fundamentals across our markets and an improved portfolio will continue to drive organic growth. Third, office construction across our markets remains limited, and even if lending loosens up, the sustained march in the rise of construction costs continues to drive first generation rents upward, which is likely to keep a bridle on new supply. Fourth, we have $371 million of development, which is 91% pre-leased on a dollar weighted basis, that is projected to stabilize by the end of 2018. Fifth, we have acquired $511 million of value-add properties over the past 16 months that were collectively 77% occupied with known move-outs at closing. Over the next few years, these assets continue to offer significant NOI upside from lease-up to stabilization. Sixth, even though interest rates have ticked up modestly of late, we still have some high coupon debt maturities over the next 14 months that offer the opportunity for us to reduce our average interest rate. The seventh and final reason is our balance sheet. It has never been stronger with debt-to-EBITDA ratio at 4.8 times and leverage, including preferreds at 35%. If pricing for assets becomes more attractive, then we feel good about using our current balance sheet capacity. While we intend to continue growing on a leverage-neutral basis, we estimate that we can fully fund the remainder of our development pipeline, plus invest another $400 million in development and/or acquisitions without issuing any equity or garnering proceeds from dispositions, all the while maintaining a debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 5.5 times. Now turning to 2016, a significant year for Highwoods. We had $892 million of capital recycling and investing activity and raised $246 million on our ATM program. These efforts not only simplified our operations and improved our portfolio, but further transformed our balance sheet. Since the end of 2015, our leverage is down over 1,000 basis points and debt-to-EBITDA is down 1.3 turns. We believe our strategic execution in 2016 sets us up for steady earnings and cash flow growth over the next few years. In the fourth quarter, we declared a special dividend, a first for Highwoods, of $0.80 per share that was paid in early January. Yesterday, we announced a 3.5% increase to our common dividend; our regular quarterly dividend is now $0.44 per share compared to our prior $0.425. Forecasted cash flow growth from our operating portfolio and continued strong cash flow from our development deliveries, combined with an increase in our taxable income, made us comfortable with this increase. As you may recall, we did not cut our dividend during the Great Recession or thereafter. Given the multitude of investment options available to us and our commitment to maintaining a strong balance sheet, we continue to believe that it is important and prudent to take a balanced view of excess cash flow, including investing in our operating properties and development pipeline, reducing debt to further bolster our dry powder and taking a conservative view of the amount of our regular dividend. Now, our Q4 and full year 2016 results. We delivered FFO of $0.82 per share for Q4 and $3.28 per share for the full year. Q4 included a modest land sale gain. Same property NOI growth remained strong at 5.8% for Q4 and 5.2% for 2016, above the high-end of our original guidance outlook. Occupancy also ended the year strong at 93.1%. We leased 726,000 square feet of second gen office space in Q4 and 3.4 million square feet for the year. 2016 leasing volume was down versus the past few years as we had less available space and our lease rollover schedule was low. Rent growth was a solid 13.9% on a GAAP basis in Q4 and 15.0% for 2016, and cash rent growth was a positive 3% for the quarter and positive 2.2% for the year. In short, the financial and operating performance of the company has been healthy and the backdrop of our markets is upbeat. We believe that we have set the table for a solid outlook for the next several years. Our initial guidance for 2017 is an FFO range of $3.27 to $3.40 per share. At the midpoint, this equates to year-over-year FFO growth of 3.6% stripping out 2016’s land sale gains. Our leverage reduction during 2016 has reduced our near-term earnings outlook by at least $0.10 per share. We believe the trade-off is well worth the flexibility and investment capacity that this strategic transformation affords us. More importantly, given the high level of pre-leasing across our development pipeline, measured pace of scheduled development stabilizations over the next few years, and capacity to fully-fund investments on our balance sheet, we are well positioned to deliver solid FFO and cash flow growth over the next few years, accompanied by a fortified dividend. Mark will go over details in his remarks, but here are a few highlights underpinning our 2017 outlook. We expect same property NOI growth of 2.5% to 3.25% and year-end occupancy between 92.2% and 93.2%. As an aside, we’re focused on the backfill of the 206,000 square foot HCA move-outs that occurred on January 1. We’ve leased 8% of the space and have LOIs for an additional 31%. We don’t expect much NOI from the backfill of the space during 2017 given the lag between lease signings and the commencement of rents, but we feel good about our ability to get this space re-leased, and this should be a good driver of growth in 2018. We see few acquisition opportunities in the market at this point in time, and therefore our 2017 outlook is zero to $200 million. We continue to focus on improving the quality of our portfolio, not just through development and potential opportunistic acquisitions, but by cycling out of non-core assets. We project selling $50 to $150 million of non-core assets during 2017. As far as development, our 2017 guidance outlook for announcements is $120 million to $220 million. Yesterday, in conjunction with our earnings release, we announced the development of 751 Corporate Center, a $22 million, 90,000 square foot, 35% pre-leased office building in Raleigh Corporate Center. Our two existing Corporate Center buildings total 279,000 square feet and are 98% occupied. We believe the spec component of this project will add needed inventory for growing customers at Raleigh Corporate Center and the West Raleigh submarket, which is 92.2% occupied. Also in development, we’re in advanced discussions with a new customer for an approximate $100 million, 100% pre-leased build-to-suit, and we are in various stages of conversations regarding other potential development projects primarily on Highwoods-owned land. Based on this strong activity, we feel very comfortable establishing the low-end of our development announcement outlook for 2017 at $120 million. Our development pipeline has increased to $541 million, encompassing 1.8 million square feet, and is 78% pre-leased on a dollar-weighted basis and 70% pre-leased on a square footage basis. Before I turn the call over to Ted, I sincerely thank the Highwoods team for their emphatically and successful execution of our strategy during 2016. Ted?