Stewart Ellis
Analyst · Matt Carletti with JMP
Thank you, Rick. In the fourth quarter, Hippo took another step forward along our path to profitability with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $47.3 million, improving upon our Q3 2022 results. Our growth rates remain strong and we're beginning to achieve the positive operating leverage that will drive our long term profitable growth. TGP growth accelerated in Q4, rising to an increase of 44% over the prior year quarter to $234 million, bringing our full year 2022 TGP to $811 million in line with our original 2022 guidance. Demand for our products and services remained strong and customer retention has continued to improve with blended premium retention across both Hippo policies and agency customers coming in at 92% in the quarter, up from 90% in Q3 and 89% in Q2. We saw growth throughout our 40 states as we began to build a presence in the northeast and mid-Atlantic. We've recently been more cautious about growth in our historically largest markets but in the quarter, we saw higher growth in Texas as our footprint in the state becomes more balanced. In our services business lines, where economics are predominantly fees and commission income, TGP was driven by strong fiscal year end home sales in our thriving builders business, which is seasonally typical for Q4. We’ve recently announced the launch of Hippo Builder Insurance Agency designed for smaller regional home builders. We're taking the embedded product of our fastest growing most profitable distribution channel and expanding it to include small builders nationwide. Our technology allows us to begin quoting a new partners lead in as little as two weeks without the builder needing to invest significant resources with builders outside of the top 10 responsible for over half of homes built in the US, we see this as a material long term opportunity. Another part of our services business to keep an eye on is First Connect insurance services, our rapidly growing digital platform designed to support independent agents by providing access to the nation's top carriers across numerous lines of business. This agent centric platform provides access to over 60 carriers and a variety of products that include home, auto, cyber, small business, life, specialty lines and more. The recently launched carrier store help agents discover additional carriers and products that can be bundled to increase sales. In Q4, Berkshire Hathaway's biBERK was added to the carrier stores roster of insurance providers. Spinnaker’s program business added $84 million of non-Hippo TGP in the fourth quarter, up from $38 million in the prior year quarter. At Spinnaker, we provide other managing general agents access to our balance sheets and insurance licenses in exchange for fronting fees and often a small percentage of the underwriting results on the premium that they produce. In 2022, we brought several new programs online, offsetting lower volume from programs that we put into run off earlier in the year, which boosted our TGP. In the Hippo home insurance program where our economics are driven by underwriting performance, TGP growth was in the mid-teens. Over the course of 2022, we've executed significant reunderwriting actions, including new pricing matrices and claims handling improvements. In what continues to be a challenging economic environment with higher and more volatile inflation rates, we continued to be proactive about repricing and reunderwriting action, which are expected to drive significant growth and net loss ratio improvement over the course of 2023. Our revenue in the quarter was $35.8 million, up 11% over the prior year quarter bringing full year results to $119.7 million in line with our guidance. Looking ahead, we expect very strong 2023 revenue growth, above 40% as our new reinsurance treaty will lead to retention of higher net premiums earned. Our Q4 gross loss ratio of 42% was the best in our company's history since going public. Favorable reserve releases from prior accident years benefited to gross loss ratio by 10 points. We're also reporting 2 points of benefits and PCS defined CAT losses in the quarter because Q4’s CAT losses is 13 points, which were largely due to winter storm Elliott were more than offset by current year favorable development from our initial loss pick from Q3’s Hurricane Ian, which happened in the final days of Q3. For the full year, our gross loss ratio improved 62 percentage points year-over-year to 76% from 138% in 2021, and we expect ongoing underlying improvement in 2023. We've taken many actions to drive better loss ratio results, including repricing, reunderwriting, more focused marketing on our target generation better customers, growth of our builder channel, increased geographic balance and improving our claims processes. As we continue to grow our TGP and revenue, we're also beginning to achieve positive operating leverage as our expense line items flatten or decline year-over-year. We're expecting this improvement to accelerate over the next 18 to 24 months. Our sales and marketing costs were $28.1 million in the quarter up from $25.5 million in the prior year. But outside of increased stock based compensation, our marketing spends has declined. Looking ahead, our marketing will be more focused on our targeted demographic and desired geographies, while also reaping the benefits of our embedded partnership and the word of mouth rewards and strong customer service. Our technology and development costs were $11.5 million, down from $14.8 million, reflecting the rightsizing decisions we made in Q3. We're committed to focus investments in our technology platforms, which we view as a key differentiator and we continue to invest aggressively in our development team in Warsaw, Poland. Our G&A expenses were $17.8 million, down from $19 million in the prior year quarter and to begin to see the bottom line impact of our increased emphasis on cost control. Unrestricted cash and investments at December 31, 2022 were $640 million. While we remain highly conservative in our asset allocation, we're beginning to see the benefits of our shift into short duration highly rated securities. Investment income contributed $5 million in the quarter, up from less than $1 million in the prior year quarter and $2.5 million in Q3 of 2022. At year end, Spinnaker’s policyholder surplus was $165 million, up from $132 million at the end of Q3, driven largely by a $30 million contribution from Hippo Holdings to support future growth. Net loss attributable to Hippo during the quarter was $63.1 million or $2.74 per share compared to a loss of $60.7 million or $2.72 per share in the prior year quarter. On an adjusted EBITDA basis, our net loss was $47.3 million versus $46 million in the prior year quarter. As we turn our attention to the future, I would like to summarize our high level guidance for full year 2023. We expect consolidated TGP to grow to nearly $1 billion, we expect our revenue will grow by over 40% and we expect our adjusted EBITDA loss will be $147 million. We also reiterate our expectations that we will be adjusted EBITDA positive by year end 2024. I'll close by pointing out that we've posted a supplemental analyst package on our Web site, which has more detailed information and our outlook for the individual business lines that we’ll be reporting under in 2023. I think you'll find that additional detail helpful in understanding Hippo's business trajectory. With that, I'd like to thank you for your time today and to open the line for questions.