Jordan Wu
Analyst · Lake Street. Your line is open
I assume you refer to our entire portfolio of businesses. So I’ll probably start – I have to start sector by sector because they do differ. Firstly, on large panel, I think I mentioned earlier the industry is suffering from overcapacity, and I think that is the consensus among the industry players, so we do have limited visibility. And the interesting thing is that while the customers are uncertain about the demand outlook for next year, they are seeing the risk of the – the interest is suffering from foundry capacity shortage for driver IC again because large panel, in particular, depends largely on up to now on 8-inch wafer foundry. For the 8-inch, because of a few new applications which speak volume, notably under-display fingerprint, has consumed a lot of 8-inch capacity. So I think it is reasonable to assume that there’s a good likelihood we’ll see industry-wide tightness again next year for 8-inch. So I think we’ve foreseen this quite a long time ago, so we started to get ourselves really well prepared for 12-inch. That covers both foundry and the back-end. So I would argue we are among the pioneers and among the most ready in terms of 12-inch preparation. So, a few of our leading customers are working closely with us to try to secure the production plan for the entire of next year and this is backed by our pretty comprehensive design portfolio among leading panel makers. So I think while it is probably too early and a bit hard to predict the industry outlook for the large kind of business next year, I think we are pretty confident about market share because of the reasons I mentioned. On small panel, firstly, on smartphone, we said it we repeat it again and again in our prepared remarks, that 2019 has not been a good year for us. I think we’ve learned the lesson, so I indicated first quarter we are likely to see a strong rebound. And we’re also likely to see a strong rebound for the entire of next year. That is back on our new design pipelines covered both our Gen 1 TDDI products as well as certain project engagements we are having with leading several customer for Gen 2 solutions. So I think next year will be a year where we try to regain our market share for TDDI. And at the moment, as I indicated in the prepared remarks, I think we have pretty good confidence about that. On tablet, I think next year will be a good year for us. Again, tablet has not been a good market for growth for several years already, so we are not seeing anything different for next year. However, it is our value addition by providing new technologies into high-end tablets with design wins across literally many of the leading tablet makers. That includes notably TDDI in-cell design with active stylus. I think active stylus is gaining popularity, and I think we should be able to take advantage of that nicely next year. So certainly next year we do expect a good growth. Likewise, for automotives, automotive this year has been a below-average year in terms of growth for us after many years of wonderful growth, which led us to the #1 position in terms of market share worldwide. And we indicated Q3 was better than expected and likewise for Q4. I think that is, okay, it’s an indication of our leading market position. And next year, some of the new technologies I indicated, there’s a long list of new technology for automotive, sustain technologies. We would start to see them taking effect starting next year. So I don’t think we were – there’s actually a good likelihood we may actually get a little bit further on market share next year on automotive on top of the new technology introduction and mass production. I think automotive, hopefully, next year will not be too bad either, although economic uncertainty continues to be – to overshadow the industry, as we are all aware. And so that kind of covers the driver IC and the non-driver. I think timing controller is a similar story to large display driver IC, so I won’t repeat that. And CMOS image sensor is likely to see another strong growth in notebooks, double-digit growth in notebooks as well as our automotive and multimedia businesses. WLO, we are counting on 1 anchor customer right now, as we said that repeatedly, so I will not comment on the prospect of WLO for next year because that is – that kind of implies a direct – implies the anchor customers outlook for us. But I think I would just make 2 comments. One, we [indiscernible] the customer. We continue to enjoy good relationships, and we are actually working very closely together on a few programs, which will take off some time in the future. And also another major focus of our WLO business is to diversify into other customers. And we mentioned all of the current short-term focus has been WLO optics to support ToF 3D sensing for Android market. So we are – I think we are making good progress together with our ecosystem partners. Although not being a new market, I’m sure many of you guys also heard about the design traction that the industry sees in terms of applying ToF technology to all facing cameras to enhance their camera features. So we are seeing the same. So we are actively participating in that. But in terms of the volume outlook, I think it’s probably too early to tell at this point. I think we’ll update in due course. And the last couple of areas I want to cover is our new areas. Firstly, on [indiscernible] WiseEye, our ultra-low power total solution. Our first focus is on output, and I mentioned we are expected by leading brand names to demo a real solution, the mass production business solution, at CES, which is around the corner. And at the same time, we are actively engaging in technical collaboration. So we are hoping that soon after CES, we will start to have some real kickoff in mass production projects. But the design will take time. So I would – I think my best estimate would be some early small volume mass production hopefully – and towards the end of next year with volume production the year after, starting with leading brand names, premium models. And our target is to take the premium model into a mainstream model in 2022. So in that area, we’re offering a total solution of Emza algorithm, our WE-I ASIC processor as well as the CMOS image sensor – the 2-in-1 CMOS image sensor I mentioned. And our WiseEye total solution is likely to see some volume production as well in AIoT next year. Again, that is something I have to give you an update due course. Lastly, on 3D sensing, our total solution, in our very short-term focus, there are 2 areas. One is smart door lock, and the other one is industrial manufacturing automation. In terms of smart door lock, we do have design in customers. We are working to improve the performance to – I mean, firstly, let me just say, smart door lock is a new concept which is really gaining popularity, gaining momentum. But there are different ways to unlock your doors. Now the industry is trying to take advantage of 3D sensing technology and try to use that technology for door unlock, which is – will be the most convenient and also offers a high degree of safety. And now the industry, they’re working on that. I think we’re among the pioneers. Nobody can claim 3D sensing is already a mature solution for 3D facial recognition unlock at this moment, although I think we are just crossing the last mile. We are very, very close to reach that point. And if that is successful – or I should say, in the meantime, other applications requiring similar technical requirements will be seen by ATM machines, POS device, point-of-sale device, etcetera, right, who are of a similar range of distance, requiring high level of security, facial recognition and so on. And so we’ll be working on that, on those, next year. So I think it’s too early to predict the volume indication or timing for next year at this point. But hopefully, we can give you better update next quarter or 2. The industry automation or manufacturing is actually a very interesting concept, a concept we announced firstly in August. We’ve actually attracted a lot of interest from the brand names, from shoe – footwear makers, brand names, leading ODMs and even shoe equipment – shoe manufacturing and equipment vendors. Now there are very active technical engagement or assessment going now at this moment. In the meantime, there are 2 possible business models that we are discussing with our potential customers. One is of loyalty model, i.e., each time you use or you take a photo, a 3D photo, we charge on a number of times the photo is taken in your shoe manufacturing process. And the other type is a more straightforward, straight buyout of the device. But – although I’m not going to tell in public exact number of sales price, but I can tell you that in the second business model, the kind of price we’re talking about is more similar to the industrial equipment rather than the kind of the consumer electronics component kind of price you are used to. So my best guess is that the first half next year, we will be able to make some sales, although starting with small volume, people are likely to have a few equipments of our devices installed in the different manufacturing premises and tried it and get comfortable with it for a few months before hopefully more significant orders will come through. So again, we have to give you more updates on that. So I hope that that kind of covers all areas and that kind of covers – give you a good insight into our business outlook for next year.