Douglas G. Elliot
Analyst · Brian Meredith with UBS
So let's separate the current and the prior, and let me see if I can add some color and give you some confidence about some of the actions we're taking, which we feel very good about. Number one, on the prior accident year, and we look at $18 million against the base of $6 billion. I look at that, Brian, really as tuning. We did do some minor strengthening to the accident years '11, '10 and '09, and we had some releases 5, 4 and 3. But $18 million and $6 billion, really, given what we've gone through the last 5 quarters, I feel very good about our position. And we will continue to monitor aggressively and not -- there might not be little bumps on the road, but we are in a completely different spot than we were 5 quarters ago. When I think about the current year, a little bit of 2 stories. One is 2/3 of our comp actions in the year were in Small Commercial. When you step back and think about Small Commercial, our returns and combined ratios in Small are really, really outstanding, and I think they will stack up with pretty much anybody in the industry. We saw a little bit of medical severity in the quarter and a little bit of larger cases. So nothing major, but enough so that we made some minor modifications to our current accident year pick in Comp in Small. It's the first time we've had to do that in several years, but we're watching and staying very careful again, albeit you see the combined ratios and saw very solid returns and in line with outstanding rate adequacy across Small Commercial. A different story in Middle. We've talked aggressively about the rate actions we were taking in our Middle Market book the last 5, 6 quarters. We feel good about those rate actions. They do not stop in third quarter '12. We continue to march on. And as Liam mentioned, we're marching on into quarter 4. So we're out beyond our trends both on a frequency and severity standpoint and we now are improving margins. The prior actions had a little bit of Middle to them, but as I look at the current accident year, there isn't anything that concerns me. And I feel good about the actions we're taking in the marketplace and reflected in the balance sheet. So maybe some bumps along the way and a few bumps in the quarter but really very, very steady progress. And our behavior in the marketplace, both from a new business perspective and a rate retention, I think is a completely different spot than where we were third quarter 2011.