Bryan McDonald
Analyst · Kelly Motta with KBW. Kelly, please go ahead
Yeah. Thanks, Kelly. Good morning. Looking at the current pipeline, which again was above where we ended the year and above last year. So looking at the second quarter, we're looking at an annualized growth rate estimate of kind of in that 5% to 8% range. So we feel like we have good visibility near term. In general, the kind of loan activity and pipeline levels, loan activity, I mean, our banker activity levels and the loan pipeline are stronger coming into this year than they were last year. And last year was an excellent year for loan growth. We did have a decline in the quarter. And if you look at Page 16 in the investor presentation, it gives you a good sense of what was driving that. The originated loans, the outstanding balances were quite a bit lower again just due to the mix of loans. There was a number of construction loans and other unfunded loans in the volume for the quarter. And then in the prepayments and payoffs, you can see that was $127 million for the first quarter, which is significantly above the run rate for last year. And then the other big one is the net advances in payments. That was actually a negative number. And we did have a lot of construction loans that fully funded out last year. This is in 2024 from commitments booked in the prior year. So we went into the year expecting a bit of a headwind related to construction loans paying off, which is obviously what we want to have happen. But at the same time, a stronger pipeline than we had last year. And again, last year was an excellent year of loan growth. So I think the backdrop coming into the year is stronger than it was last year. But the uncertainty is really hard to gauge, how is that going to impact Q3 and Q4 production. And as Tony alluded to in his comments, it's just a little early for us to be able to tell. We are watching both the credit side and the pipeline really closely, lots of interaction with the clients, but just too soon to read. So again, Q2, we're looking at kind of annualized growth in the 5% to 8% range. The pipeline is there. And typically, production would build into the second, third and fourth quarter, but hard to tell at this point, Kelly, exactly how much of the pipeline falls out if this uncertainty continues.