James A. Ajello
Analyst · Glenrock Associates
Thanks, Connie. On Hawaii's economy, 2014 was the third consecutive record year for both visitor arrivals and expenditures, which were up 1.3% and 2.3%, respectively, from 2013 and still robust after many years of strong growth. 2014 arrivals reached 8.3 million, and total spend was at $14.7 billion. Statewide unemployment remained low at 4% in December of '14 and 3.4% in Honolulu County compared to 4.7% a year ago for the state and significantly below the current national unemployment rate of 5.7% as of January 2015. Hawaii real estate activity remains strong with the median sales price for single-family homes on Oahu increasing 3.8% in 2014 over 2013. However, the number of closed sales was slightly down by 0.9% year-over-year. The December 2014 Oahu median single-family home price was at $690,000. Construction activity reflected by the value of private building permits increased 21.9% in 2014 compared to 2013, driven by the increase in commercial and industrial new projects, additions and alterations. The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization has estimated that Hawaii will save $1.4 billion over the span of a year from the decline of petroleum prices if recent prices are sustained. Overall, we expect to see continuing growth in Hawaii's economy in 2015 supported by the construction industry, steady performance of the tourism industry and petroleum prices. As shown on Slide 7, 2014 GAAP earnings per share were $1.64 and in line with our 2014 EPS guidance range of $1.60 to $1.67. Excluding merger-related expenses, core earnings per share were $1.68, up $0.06 on a comparable basis versus $1.62 per share in 2013. Pace of earnings in 2014 can be skewed more towards the first 3 quarters of 2014 with fourth quarter 2014 earnings lower than the prior 3 quarters due to the timing of expenses. As shown on Slide 8, HEI's 2014 GAAP consolidated ROE was 9.6%. Excluding merger-related expenses, HEI's 2014 core consolidated ROE was 9.8% versus the comparable 9.7% in 2013. On Slide 9, utility earnings were $138 million in 2014 compared to $123 million in 2013. EPS of $1.34 exceeded our earnings guidance range of $1.30 to $1.33 per share. The detail of variances are shown on the slide, and I'll highlight just a few. In 2014, on an after-tax basis, the most significant year-over-year net income drivers were: higher net revenues, primarily due to $29 million in higher recovery of additional infrastructure investments and operating costs; $3 million refund to Maui Electric customers in 2013 due to the 2012 final rate case decision and order. This was partially offset by $1 million in lower earnings from lower fuel efficiency performance of our operating units. Higher net revenues were partially offset by higher depreciation, higher interest expense, including lower revenue balancing account interest income, the favorable deferred tax adjustment recorded in 2013 and higher O&M expense. O&M expense was $3 million higher after tax or about 1% higher compared to last year. However, excluding the unanticipated Tropical Storm Iselle expenses, which were $4 million pretax, and the consulting expenses associated with our energy transformation plans, which were $8 million pretax, O&M expenses for 2014 would've decreased by approximately $4 million on an after-tax basis, driven by the following pretax items: $8 million for grid modernization programs, cost for smart grid installation; $4 million for the upgrade of our customer information system, partially offset by $9 million of lower customer service expenses; $5 million lower overhead expenses due to the reduced scope of work; and then $5 million in savings from the deactivation of generating units. Overall, we were able to limit our O&M expenses to less than inflationary levels. At the bank, net income for the year was $51 million in 2014 compared to $58 million in the prior year. EPS of $0.50 was firmly in line with our guidance range of $0.47 to $0.52. The most significant drivers of the decline from 2013 after tax were: $3 million in lower interchange fees due to regulatory caps attributable to the Durbin amendment; $3 million in declines of mortgage banking income related to the decline in mortgage refinancing volume; and $3 million in higher provision for loan losses, primarily due to reserves allocated for loan growth. The 2013 provision was low due to the release of reserves associated with the sale of the credit card portfolio, which was partially offset by $3 million in higher net interest income as contributions from loan growth more than offset for lower yields on loans. Now focusing on the utility. Slide 11 shows the utility's actual ROEs for the year ended 2014. The consolidated utility ROE of 8.4% improved from 8% in 2013, reflecting higher earnings in 2014, topping the guidance range of 8% to 8.3%. The majority of the 2014 increase is driven by higher recovery in infrastructure investments and operating costs. Over the last quarter, we also experienced better-than-expected fuel efficiency in our generating units, enabling us to come in slightly higher than the guidance range. Turning to Slide 12. This slide reflects the cost of oil for Hawaii versus crude oil prices. As you can see from the slide, oil prices in Hawaii have declined starting in December of -- September of 2014. With the cost of oil, including purchase power and taxes representing over 70% of customer bills, the average cost per barrel of fuel in the fourth quarter of 2014 declined by about 8% from the third quarter of 2014. From September of 2014 compared to early February of 2015, the average consumer bill on Oahu has declined by approximately 20% from about $219 to $177 per month, a 4-year low. Even with the recent decline in fuel oil prices, we are still firmly committed to LNG as it provides the added benefit of meeting MATS compliance requirements while avoiding costly or alternative solutions. We continue to be focused on replacing oil with renewables as quickly as possible in order to achieve the state's clean energy goals to reduce Hawaii's dependence on oil. I'll now discuss the bank. Turning to American Savings Bank on Slide 14. American continued to deliver solid profitability metrics, which were generally in line with its targets and peers'. We have achieved a competitive return on assets of 95 basis points for 2014. With our ongoing efforts to enhance our products, service and risk management capabilities, we produced strong loan growth of 6.8% in 2014 in line with our mid-single-digit loan growth target and better credit quality. Our net loan charge-off was 1 basis point in 2014, beating our target of 7 basis points, and that is extremely low relative to our peers. Our 2014 net interest margin of 3.62% came in at the high end of our guidance range of 3.5% to 3.6% as loan portfolio repricing due to the low interest rate environment slowed in the latter part of the year, and higher fees and interest were recognized due to the payoff of certain commercial loans. Overall, the bank continues to maintain its low-risk profile, strong balance sheet and straightforward community business banking model. On Slide 15, our net interest margin of 3.65% in the fourth quarter of 2014 was 3 basis points higher than the linked quarter. Our interest-earning asset yield improved by 2 basis points, primarily attributable to interest and fees related to the payoff of certain commercial loans and slower amortization of premiums associated with mortgage-backed securities in our investment portfolio. Our liability cost of 22 basis points was 1 basis point lower than the linked quarter. We anticipate continued net interest margin compression, as new pricing on loans continues to be lower than our portfolio rates, albeit at a smaller -- at a slower pace. On Slide 16, we showed the declining trend in noninterest income in 2014, which is primarily driven by lower mortgage banking income related to the decline in mortgage refinancing volume and the gain on sale margin compression and lower fees from other financial services primarily related to the Durbin amendment's rate cap on interest -- on interchange fees. The gain in prior year ended related to the sale of the credit card portfolio. For the full year, the $10.9 million pretax decline compared to 2013 was driven by $5.4 million in lower mortgage banking income, $4.1 million in lower interchange fees driven by $5 million lower rates due to Durbin, partially offset by higher volume and $2.3 million in gain from the sale of credit card portfolio in 2013. These were partially offset by $1.6 million in higher gain sale of securities. As a result of prudent risk management practices and the healthy local economy, credit quality has improved. 2014 net charge-off ratio was a very low 1 basis point compared to 9 basis points in 2013. Provision for loan losses in 2014 was $6.1 million, an increase of $4.6 million compared to 2013, primarily due to reserves allocated for growth in the loan portfolio. The 2013 provision was unusually low due to the $1 million release in reserves in 2013 related to the credit card sale and improvement in loss rates, which has since stabilized. The allowance for loan losses was 1.03% of outstanding loans at $45.6 million at year-end compared to 1% at the end of the linked quarter and 0.97% as of the prior year-end. On Slide 18, American's nonperforming assets ratio of 0.85% is 3 basis points lower than the end of the third quarter and lower than the 1.2% at the end of the fourth quarter last year and remains better than its high-performing peers. This is consistent with our improved credit quality, effective credit management and strong loan growth. Slide 19 illustrates American's continued attractive asset and funding mix relative to our peer banks. American's December 31, 2014, balance sheets stacked against the last complete available data set of our peers, which is at September 2014. 96% of our loan portfolio was funded at low-cost core deposit versus the aggregate of our peers at 90%. In 2014, total deposits increased by $251 million or 5.7%, which helped fund our strong loan growth while maintaining a very low cost of funds of 20 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2014, 15 basis points lower than the median of our peers. American remains well capitalized with a leverage ratio of 8.9% at year-end, tangible common equity of 8.3% and total risk-based capital of 12.3%. In 2014, American paid $36 million in dividends to HEI while maintaining healthy capital levels. Now I'll address HEI's outlook for 2015. Utility's updated 3-year capital expenditures consisting of both foundational and transformational investments is forecast to be between $1.1 billion and $2 billion. Our foundational investments represent the core investments needed to continue to deliver safe, reliable and efficient service to our customers. They include projects to replace aging infrastructure, to improve reliability, connecting or upgrading customer connections and improving our internal infrastructure to be more efficient and effective. Many of our transformational initiatives depend upon external factors, which could impact our ability to execute strategic plans. Our application for approval of the Schofield Generating Station is at the PUC, and we expect to file PUC applications for battery storage, LNG and smart grid in 2015. For 2015, we expect rate base growth in the range of 3% to 5% on our 2014 ending rate base of $2.7 billion. As American prepares for life as an independent publicly traded company, it remains focused on its core banking business, growing loans and deposits and generating fee income by providing an attractive value proposition to customers. In 2015, the bank is targeting mid-single-digit loan growth in order to offset the continued impact of declining yields. The bank expects loan growth generally consistent with current portfolio mix but somewhat faster growth in the consumer and business banking and its -- for its asset quality profile to remain strong. Work continues on the bank's plan to consolidate its personnel and management footprint to its new corporate campus. This will allow the consolidation of teammates from 6 different locations to enhance culture and collaboration. The bank continues to focus on cost management and core operation, as its fund -- as it funds critical initiatives for long-term growth, and total noninterest expense will be higher in 2015 due primarily to higher pension costs. Overall, the bank expects to continue to deliver strong profitability metrics. HEI begins 2015 with a strong capital structure with 52% consolidated common equity to total capitalization. Our 2015 holding company financing plans include approximately $50 million settlement of the equity forward, the dividend reinvestment plan remains closed for original issuance throughout 2015, an issuance of $40 million of additional debt for the remainder of the holding company needs is assumed in 2015. On December 4, following our merger announcement with NextEra, Moody's affirmed its ratings of HEI. Fitch placed HEI on ratings watch positive and noted that it will likely resolve the rating watch upon completion of the transaction and could upgrade HEI by one notch, given its proposed ownership by a higher-rated company. S&P also placed HEI on credit watch with positive implications and issued a subsequent report on January 26, 2015, stating the ratings of HEI and its subsidiaries are on credit watch with positive implications because of the proposed merger and higher-rated -- with higher-rated NextEra Energy. There have been no changes to the bank credit ratings or outlooks. Based on our current environment, but excluding any merger-related expenses, we are initiating 2015 earnings guidance in the range of $1.64 to $1.74 per share. We expect utility earnings growth will be 2015 EPS range of $1.30 to $1.35 and bank EPS in the range of $0.50 to $0.54. Based upon the revised CapEx plan and 51% common equity capitalization target, we expect all of our 2015 equity needs to be satisfied through the existing equity forward. At the utility, our guidance assumes no changes to the decoupling model, including Schedule B issues to be addressed and the pending decoupling docket. We assume utility O&M to be up approximately 2% compared to 2014 levels as we continue to execute our strategies, which are not currently recovered in rates and associated with clean energy transformation. We also assume fuel efficiency consistent with rate case levels and related heat rate deadband. However, changes in system demands could cause fuel efficiency to fluctuate outside the deadband. We assume rate base growth of approximately 3% to 5%, and overall, we expect 2015 utility ROE of 8% on a GAAP basis. At the bank, we expect mid-single-digit loan growth, which we expect to be more than offset with the effect of lower yields on net interest income. Net interest margin between 3.45% and 3.55% as we expect yields on our loans to continue to decline, albeit at a slower rate. We expect a slight improvement in noninterest income, a growth in fee income from other financial services. Net charge-offs is expected to remain low at under 0.1%. Provision is expected to be in the range of $5 million to $8 million, slightly higher than 2014 due to additional reserves for loan growth. Overall, we expect return on assets to be about 95 basis points. Connie, I'll now turn the call back over to you.