Jim Ajello
Analyst · Morningstar
Thanks, Connie. As a backdrop to our results and outlook, I'll briefly comment on Hawaii's economy which is [expected to] improve. The tourism industry had the best year on record in 2012. 2012 visitor arrivals were up 9.6% and expenditures were up 18.7% compared to 2011. Visitor spending has grown year over year for 32 consecutive months and the 2013 outlook for the visitor industry remains positive. Local economists expect construction to begin to recover in 2013 due to an increase in non-residential and public sector projects. Statewide unemployment is at 5.2% in December, with Honolulu at 4.7%, the lowest level in four years and remains low compared to the national average of 7.8%. Overall, we expect continued improvement in the Hawaii economy with expectations of an expanding job [takes] as construction strengthens, tourism continues its healthy gains, and growth broadens to other segments. On slide 10, GAAP utility net income for 2012 of $99.3 million was essentially flat with $100 million in the prior year. However, core utility net income was $123.7 million in 2012 or $18 million higher than 2011. The increase was primarily driven by a recovery of cost from rate cases and decoupling, partially offset by higher O&M expenses. And looking at changes in utility revenues between periods, we focus on net revenues. The net revenues that are shown on this slide before the operating revenues net of fuel oil purchase power and taxes other than income taxes, for the year, net revenues after-tax were $28 million higher than last year, largely driven by, on an after-tax basis, $29 million related to the Oahu 2011 and Maui County 2012 rate cases which included sales decoupling, better generation efficiencies in Oahu which resulted in $5 million of earnings, and $1 million related to the revenue adjustment mechanism for Oahu, $3 million related to the first year of decoupling at HECO which resulted in lower heat rate savings and a negative RAM, and $4 million higher franchise taxes and other items primarily related to an adjustment for prior periods. Operations and maintenance expense after tax were $9 million higher compared to the prior year, slightly lower than the 4% we had guided last year and below the original 6% guidance for the year. At the bank, net income for the year was down 2%, better than our 2012 guidance of down 3% to 5%. The $1 million decline from 2011 was primarily attributed to after-tax $4 million lower net interest income from declining asset yields, partially offset by asset growth, and $5 million higher non-interest expense, largely driven by strategic spending to build capabilities for future growth, supporting higher production levels and funding higher employee benefit expenses. These are offset by $6 million in higher non-interest income, primarily driven by gains on sales into residential mortgages, and $1 million in lower provision expense. Now we'll look more closely at utility. Slide 12, at the utility, the core ROE improved -- continued to improve in 2012, as shown on slide 12. On a consolidated basis, the utility earned a core ROE of 8.5% compared to 7.7% a year ago and 5.8% in 2010, reflecting the transformation of the regulatory model over the last two years. Our largest utility in Oahu was the driver for this improvement. Its core ROE was 9.4% in 2012 compared to 7.1% a year ago and 6.1% in 2010. This improvement reflects a full year of cost recovery from its 2011 rate case under the new regulatory model and better-than-expected heat rate earnings due to the efficiencies in generation, as well as managing O&M to levels for which we are recovering costs. 2012 core ROEs for Hawaii Island and Maui County utilities were generally within expectations of approximately 7%. Maui's 2012 ROE reflects spending in advance of cost recovery in its 2012 rate case. As expected HECO's returns were lower than the prior year due to the 2012 implementation of the heat rate dead band and higher O&M. Slide 13 reflects the revised rate case schedule based on the 2013 settlement with the Consumer Advocate. Currently, MECO 2012 is the only open rate case as we await a final decision. Subject to approval of the settlement agreement, we will withdraw the HECO 2013 rate case and delay filing the HECO 2014 rate case approximately half a year to early 2014. We will continue to follow the original three-year rate case cycle under the decoupling model, thereafter with MECO and HECO having rate cases in 2015 and 2016, respectively. On slide 14, you'll note the utility's updated five-year capital expenditures forecast is $2.9 million in total, with approximately $1.9 million in maintenance CapEx and $1 billion in major initiatives. The $2.9 billion forecast presented here includes a $700,000 or a 40% discount factor to major initiatives to reflect the heavy dependency in externalities. This accounts for the likelihood of being able to execute all initiatives as planned. In major initiatives chart at the bottom of the page, the amount shown reflect the undiscounted estimates. Many of our major initiatives depend on external factors which could impact our ability to execute. For example, utility's environmental [clients], our plan is depended upon regulatory approval and timing. The inter-island interconnection expenditures are dependent on permitting and the RFP and new generation is subject to competitive bidding. Overall we expect attractive long-term rate base growth. Now we'll look more closely at the bank. Our net interest margin was 3.81% in the fourth quarter of 2012. The 11 basis points decline from the linked quarter was primarily attributed to lower yields on interest-earning assets as loans continue to re-price down due to the low interest rate environment. Our liability costs of 23 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2012 declined from 25 basis points in the third quarter and is extremely low by industry comparisons, reflecting the value of our stable low-cost deposit base. As shown on slide 17, loan growth continued in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 3.5%. For the year, the bank grew at a steady rate of 2.6%, consistent with our expectations. Growth in our strategic segments were partially offset by a controlled decline in long-term fixed rate residential mortgages and loan loss, consistent with American strategy to improve its interest rate and credit risk. Turning to credit quality, the bank recorded a $3.4 million provision for loan losses in the fourth quarter of 2012, bringing its annual provision to $12.9 million. This reflects a $2.1 million improvement to 2011 and consistent with our 2012 guidance range of $13 million to $16 million for the year. Net charge-offs totaled $8.8 million in 2012 or 50% lower than 2011. Full-year 2012 net charge-off ratio of 0.24% or 24 basis points compared to 0.49% in the prior year, reflecting improving credit trends and the strengthening Hawaii economy. The allowance for loan losses was 1.1% of outstanding loans at $42 million at yearend, slightly higher than the 1.06% compared to the linked quarter and 1.03% as of the year -- prior-year quarter-end. The increase in the allowance is due to, first, loan growth, and second, higher reserves for commercial portfolios. On slide 19, ASB's non-performing assets ratio is 1.87% at the end of the fourth quarter versus 1.73% at the end of the third quarter and 2.01% at the end of the fourth quarter last year. It remains better than its high-performing peers. The 14-basis-point increase from the linked quarter was primarily due to one commercial borrower and land loans in the process of modification. Slide 20 is American's balance sheet, which shows you the attractive asset funding mix of American relative to its peer banks. We compared American's December 31, 2012 balance sheet to the last complete available data set for our peers which is as of September 30, 2012. Ninety-nine percent of our loan portfolio was funded with low-cost core deposits versus our peers at 89%. In 2012, core deposits increased by $230 million to $2.3 billion -- $3.8 billion, a record high, which helped fund our loan growth while maintaining a very low average cost of funds of 23 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2012, 38 basis points lower than the median for our peers. American remains well-capitalized with a leverage ratio of 9.1%, tangible common equity of total assets of 8.4%, and total risk-based capital of 12.8%, all at 12/31/2012. In 2012, American paid $45 million in dividends to HEI while maintaining a leverage ratio of 9.1%. Now, HEI's outlook for 2013. HEI continues to maintain its strong capital structure with 52% consolidated equity to total capitalization at 2012. This is consistent with our long-term capital structure at 52% equity. In 2013 we expect American will continue to pay a hefty dividend of $40 million. This is a slight reduction from its 2012 dividends of $45 million in order to fund its planned loan growth and maintain its target ratios of 9% leverage and 13% total risk-based capital. Our 2013 financing plans assume $45 million of equity from our dividend reinvestment plan. We expect to refinance $50 million of long-term debt at the holding company in 2013 and the financing for the remainder of earnings will depend on market conditions. These announcements do not include expected debt financing at utility to support rate base growth while maintaining the capital structure approved in their last rate cases. Our dividend policy remains the same until we consistently achieve a 65% payout ratio. For 2013, HEI is initiating earnings guidance in the range of $1.58 to $1.68 per share. The range assumes an estimated EPS contribution from the utility of $1.23 to $1.29 and from the bank of $0.54 to $0.57. The holding company other net loss segment is expected to be $0.18 to $0.19. These EPS estimates do not include an assumption for share dilution other than DRIP. As we undertake our attractive rate base growth opportunities, we may require additional equity in the next 12 to 24 months and we will be optimistic with the timing and amount depending on market conditions. We expect to meet our long-term target of 52% equity. As to utility, the guidance range assumes 5% rate base growth, the terms of the settlement agreement including the withdrawal of 2013 HECO rate case, O&M held at 2012 levels on a consolidated utility basis, the decoupling model which will set net revenues to the last rate case at each utility, plus the annual revenue adjustment mechanisms for O&M and rate base. The guidance also assumes a 2013 RAM, starts on June, the elimination of five-month RAM delay which was included in the settlement agreement, which would be in effect from 2014 to 2016 and therefore does not apply to 2013. At the bank, the guidance range assumes NIM between 3.6% and 3.7%, based on continued pressure on net interest income, partially offset by continued loan growth in the mid-single-digit range, steady growth in our non-interest income as we deepen customer relationships, expand our customer and product base and maintain strong, although lower gains, on sales of originated mortgages, spending on strategic priorities supporting longer-term growth initiatives including the development of new products and services which is expected to result in higher non-interest expense, and provision expense in the range of $10 million to $12 million, and finally, the return on assets of approximately 110 basis points. Now, back to Connie.