Kevin Zugibe
Analyst · Craig-Hallum. Please proceed with your question
Good evening, and thank you for joining us. As we discussed in our first quarter call, our 2018 selling season commenced with a just in time buying model and we got off to a very slow start. Unfortunately, the selling environment remained sluggish through April due largely to the cool spring with price declines and stagnant demand impacting the refrigerants we sell plus the warmer weather commenced starting in May, we saw volumes rebound, and for the last two months volumes have increased and we’ve begun to close the gap, but we’re still behind last year’s overall volume pace. The Hudson-ASPEN team possesses enormous industry experience, but this year has presented unique challenges. While we’ve seen price and our volume declines in one refrigerant or another in the past seasons, this year we’ve seen declines in both volume and price for nearly all refrigerants. As a result, our second quarter performance was extremely disappointing, particularly due to the price decreases that occurred through June of this year. Now with the arrival of warm weather one month into the third quarter, we have seen a stabilization in prices. During the first four to five months of this year, there were several factors which have created significant headwinds, such as customer buying patterns, supply and demand levels and whether, all negatively contributing to our results. But once the warm weather kicked in for the entire country, we have clearly seen customers actively buying refrigerant to meet the demand. Unfortunately, we think this demand has come a little too late to reverse the negative pricing in volume trends that have occurred through the second quarter. In recent years, R-22 pricing has been increasing incrementally as we move closer to the 2019 production phase-out, which is anticipated to create a supply shortage for the installed base of R-22 equipment. This season, however, the pricing trend has reversed course. Based on our experience with HFC phase-out in the mid-90s, it’s not uncommon for pricing to move up and then come back down at times throughout the phase-out process. As we look to next year, we’re mindful that there will only be another 4.5 million pounds of virgin production allowed. We believe that this additional supply plus any remaining stockpile could fell short of meeting the overall demand, which is why similar to HFC phase-out, we expect to see higher, more stable pricing as normal supply demand economics will apply to R-22. We believe the customers change their typical buying behavior this year based upon their experience in the 2017 season and have been hesitant to stock inventory. Last season, our customers saw increased pricing early in the season followed by significant declines for all refrigerants towards the end of the season, which resulted in lower than normal margins. As a result, this year many of our customers adopted a just in time buying approach, keeping very little inventory, while demand in the latter-half of the second quarter improved with the warmer temperatures demand never reach typical second quarter levels. To give you a sense of the overall pricing dynamics, since our first quarter conference call in May, R-22 has declined to approximately $10 to $11 pound, and HFC pricing declined approximately 40% from the first quarter through the second quarter. Given these pricing headwinds and with two-thirds of our selling season complete and the visibility we have today, we don’t anticipate that we will be able to make up the shortfalls of the first and second quarter during the remainder of the selling season. Therefore, we don’t expect to meet the revenue and gross margin targets that we set forth in early May. Assuming refrigerant pricing remains at current levels, we believe our revenues for 2018 should be approximately $200 million. While we anticipate the 2018 selling season to be challenging, it certainly has proven to be even more difficult than we would have expected. We’ve been in this industry a long time and we’ve weathered difficult market conditions and remain optimistic about the long-term opportunities in the markets in which we operate. Our acquisition of ASPEN has added seasoned industry professionals, enhanced our portfolio of product offerings, and diversified our customer base, both of which strengthened our ability to navigate periodic downturns in our history. The depressed prices also allows us to replace our higher cost inventory with much lower cost basis product, which we believe will improve our margins as we begin to sell that product in future periods. The 2019 results are expected to make clear the strengths and benefits of the Hudson and ASPEN combination. We see many similarities between the current HFC phase-out and the CFC phase-out of the mid-90s. Our experience and success in navigating through the CFC phase-out taught us that price increases are not linear and often have corrections along the way. We are now in the middle of one of those price corrections and although R-22 pricing has trend lower in the short-term, over the longer-term for R-22, we expect to see significantly higher prices. Likewise, we expected phase-down of HFCs should follow a similar trajectory and we believe represents an even larger opportunity, as it will be a broader installed base of HFC equipment. Moreover, the Trump administration’s recent action to rollback vehicle emission standards should not in any way signal a lack of support for the Kigali Amendment since the dynamics of the auto efficiency issue is very different in Kigali. Support for Kigali in the industry is almost universal and there’s a – and there’s considerable support among Senate Republicans with more than a dozen already on record in support of Kigali and an HFC phase-down. As it relates to emission standards, the auto industry was seeking a uniform federal standard as opposed to a patchwork of state standards, whereas refrigerant industry is seeking – is actively seeking the phase-out. We have seen no evidence of any business group coming out in opposition to Kigali, consequently, we are confident that Kigali Amendment will be ratified. Lastly, we’re currently operating under a Waiver and Amendment to our term loan agreement, which runs through August 14. The discussions are continuing with our term loan lenders to secure an amendment of the term loans existing total leverage ratio financial covenant and certain other items, which we expect to complete an amendment on or before August 14. Subsequent amendment should provide us with enhanced financial flexibility to weather through today’s challenging market conditions. As we move through the remainder of 2018, our focus remains on meeting the needs of our customers and growing our leadership position to capitalize on future opportunities, as the industry involves the new equipment and refrigerants. Now I’ll turn it over to Brian to review the financials. Go ahead, Brian.