Sashidhar Jagdishan
Analyst · Mahrukh Adajania from Nuvama Wealth Management
Thank you, Srini, and good evening to all of you. Yes, sort of engaging with you all after a quarter. I just wanted to recap some of the guidance that we have been giving in the past couple of quarters. One of the things that we have been mentioning is that we would like to desist from providing any guidance of any form as it is providing a distraction from our long-term objective. So we would like to stay focused. This is a period of transition post-merger, but we ought to stay focused and ensure stability of some of the key metrics and achieve some of the objectives in the medium to long term. I know that the most important part of our strategy is deposits and are we happy with the kind of numbers that has come about? Not really. It has fallen short of our expectations. But frankly, if you see this, this is not something new. There is a seasonality in the system, and the bank has been tracking this seasonality being a large player in the system. Our net accretion to deposits normally is in the range that is similar to what is there in the system. But this time around, obviously, we were a little bit surprised on the period-end numbers because of some unexpected flows in the current accounts, which was more than what we had anticipated. Of course, I would like to recap to all of you all that we did sort of give you a heads-up during the earnings call out of the fourth quarter that we did sort of see a lot more unanticipated transitory flows in the current account, if you recall, and that is what has gone out. So a combination of this larger outflow because we do have relatively higher share of the market in current account and so as the balance sheet has been growing, the velocity of inflows and outflows have also been increasing in current accounts, which is the nature of the beast because for us, a high economic activity in the current accounts is how we will achieve more larger transactional balances in the current account balances. But on a period end, you will see this kind of a high velocity. So a combination of outflows in current accounts and a combination of at least $160 billion -- sorry, not dollar, INR 160 billion of an erstwhile HDFC non-retail deposits, which ran down, has given us a very tepid kind of a net attrition on a period-end basis. Now if you have noticed, you may be surprised that we have started to even disclose in one of the decks, in our investor decks, which probably you may have access to, on average deposits as well. You may be wondering why have we done that. And let me be honest as to why we have done it. It's not something to tell you that, okay, this is not so -- the period end is not good, so try and show something which is very good, not really. I think this is messaging not just for the investor fraternity, but also to my people at large because we've realized that we want our ground-level teams in our large distribution footprint to focus on basics on the ground level on a day-to-day basis. Focusing on certain period-end numbers is leading to some unintended performance-related pressures, which we want to avoid. And that is the reason why we want to converge the align -- or converge or align our internal and external metrics so that there is no unintended pressure that builds up in the ecosystem. If you've seen the numbers and once you digest the average numbers on a quarterly basis, which we have given from quarter 1 FY '22 to quarter 1 of FY '25, that will give you a reasonable amount of comfort that there is a steady build up a secular trend, upward trend in the momentum. Of course, there is some seasonality in some of the quarters, but that's fine. But largely, the secular trend is visible, and that's what we want to focus on. So much as all of us are used to looking at the period-end numbers, I think looking at a longer trend on the averages seems to suggest that the resiliency of the organization is in track and it will continue to be so even in the future. On the -- I have mentioned in the annual report recently, which is released to the world at large that we will be growing slower in our advances as against our deposit growth. This is not something new. If you've seen our track record over a long period of time, this is something that has been there. Probably in the last couple of external forums or the public forums that we have come on, we did sort of affirm that our focus is going to be on profitable growth and not just on growth. And yes, in the bargain, it is in our interest to bring down the loan-deposit ratios much faster than what one would have anticipated. It is in our interest, and I'll explain that to you probably when one of you ask questions. If you see the track record right from the time we merged on 1st July 2023, there was a starting pro forma financial, the day 1 financial as one calls it, and probably this is also there and visible to each one of you in an investor deck. If you look at some of the key metrics, whether it's the NIMs, whether it is the CASA ratios, whether it is the cost-to-income, whether it's the GNPA, from that starting point to 30th June 2025, it's been range bound -- rather stable and range bound. For example, the NIMs have been in the range of 3.4% to 3.5% with an increasing bias. The CASA ratio has been in the range of 36% to 38%. The cost-to-income has been in the range of 40 to 41 with a decreasing bias. The GNPA has been in the range of 1.2% to 1.4%. And if you exclude the seasonality of agri, in fact, it's been properly on a declining trend. And the ROAs have been in the region of 1.9% to 2.1%. And as you know, it may be -- this is not a new number or new metric that we have encountered. We have seen, for a long period of time, this number of 1.9% in the premerger levels as well. So what does it mean? The fact that we have maintained stability means that the inherent resilience in both the organizations is intact. So it's a period -- despite the kind of changed environment in terms of liquidity, in terms of competitive intensity, in terms of the -- our so-called urge to slow down our loans so that we can get down the CD ratio, the loan deposit ratio faster than what we had anticipated. Despite that, I think we are maintaining stability in some of the key metrics. I think that's something that I just wanted to reiterate and want you to sort of appreciate. I guess, these were some of the things that we wanted to mention as a top-of-the-mind recall. I think we'd be happy to sort of take questions from any one of you. Over to you.