Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Q2 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good afternoon. My name is Drew, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Warrior's Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded and will be available for replay on the company's website. I would now like to turn the call over to Brian Chopin, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller.

Good afternoon, and welcome, everyone, to Warrior's Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call, including statements relating to our expected future business and financial performance, may be considered forward-looking statements according to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Forward-looking statements, by their nature, address matters that are to different degrees uncertain. These uncertainties, which are described in more detail in the company's annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC, may cause our actual future results to be materially different from those expected in our forward-looking statements. We do not undertake to update our forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by law. For more information regarding forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's press releases and SEC filings. We'll also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are defined and reconciled to comparable GAAP financial measures in our second quarter press release furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K, which is also posted on our website. Additionally, we will be filing our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, with the SEC this afternoon. You can find additional information regarding the company on our website at www.warriormetcoal.com, which also includes a second quarter supplemental slide deck that was posted this afternoon. Today on the call with me are Mr. Walt Scheller, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Dale Boyles, Chief Financial Officer. After our formal remarks, we'll be happy to answer any questions. With that, I will now turn the call over to Walt.

Thanks, Brian. Hello, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us today to discuss our second quarter 2026 results. I'll start by providing an overview of the quarter before Dale reviews our results in additional detail. The second quarter marked a key inflection point as we clearly realized the incremental earnings and cash flow contributions of Blue Creek. We believe there's even more value to be realized as we work towards Blue Creek's full potential. This inflection point was characterized by significant margin expansion and generation of more than $103 million of free cash flow, which came as a result of record sales volumes, improved pricing, and a lower cost profile. These results brought free cash flow to a positive $11 million at the midpoint of the year. Now with Blue Creek operational and our development spending complete, we've entered into the next phase of Warrior's growth, which is focused on free cash flow generation, balance sheet strength, and stockholder returns over the long term. Looking at our markets more broadly, the second quarter 2026 was characterized by the pockets of normalization of supply conditions following the weather-related disruptions observed earlier in the year. Despite these fluctuations, steel fundamentals remained relatively unchanged. The tragic mining incident in China in late May briefly tightened sentiment around domestic coking coal availability and resulted in additional safety inspections and higher domestic coking coal and coke prices. The impact of this sentiment shift was material and was clearly observed with the reopening of the arbitrage between the China CFR and Australian FOB indices, which have remained predominantly closed for over a year. Demand from India continued to be resilient, but weak steel margins, subdued Chinese buying activity, and the continued pressure from Chinese steel exports prevented the broader market from developing stronger momentum. In Europe, we continue to see the expected benefits of protectionist measures materializing, but the recovery remains uneven and is not strong enough to offset weakness in other regions. Freight rates and their corresponding demurrage rates remained materially above their recent averages and as a result, had a negative impact on our average net selling price. The World Steel Association reported recently that global pig iron production declined during the first 6 months of 2026 by 1.9% as compared to the same period last year. India continued to show growth with a 2.7% increase year-over-year, while China remained the primary source of weakness as the country continues to grapple with soft internal demand and weak steel margins. This regional split remains consistent with the broader market narrative, with resilient demand in India and parts of Asia, offset by continued softness in China and an uneven recovery across developed markets. Our primary index, the PLV FOB Australia remained well above the levels observed during most of 2025 and was relatively stable for the second quarter of 2026 as compared to the first quarter. The index price averaged $216 per ton and was 29% or $49 per ton higher than the second quarter 2025. For the main second-tier indices, the Australian LVHCC index and the CFR India LVHCC index prices increased in the second quarter of this year compared to the second quarter of last year to an average of $170 and $191 per short ton, respectively. The Australian LVHCC index price was $40 per ton or 30% higher than the second quarter of last year. And the CFR India LVHCC index price was $46 per ton or 32% higher than the second quarter of 2025. As a result, the relativity of the Australian LVHCC index price to the Australian PLV index price increased from 78% for the second quarter 2025 to 79% for the second quarter 2026. In contrast to the Australian LVHCC and CFR India index prices, the average U.S. East Coast HVA index price decreased $11 per ton or 7% in the second quarter this year from the second quarter of last year and averaged $143 per short ton. As a result, the relativity decreased from 92% for the second quarter 2025 to 66% for the second quarter 2026. We continue to see a meaningful discount to the PLV price each of the last 5 consecutive quarters in the Atlantic Basin to the point where it has temporarily become more profitable to sell into the Pacific Basin despite the higher freight rates, although, we don't expect this to continue once the U.S. East Coast HVA relativities return to normal levels. We achieved gross price realization of 66% for the second quarter this year compared to 80% in the second quarter of 2025. Our lower gross price realizations were driven by a combination of factors. First, our average main pricing indices for the PLV and LVHCC in the Pacific Basin have increased year-over-year for the second quarter, while the East Coast High-Vol A index decreased in the Atlantic Basin. Second, freight rates to Asia, primarily India, were about $13 per ton or 37% higher in the second quarter of 2026 than last year's second quarter and reduced our gross price realization. Third, gross price realizations were lower due to a 21% higher mix of High-Vol A products sold in the second quarter of this year. As production from Blue Creek continues to increase, we expect our sales volume mix to become more weighted toward High-Vol A products in the Pacific Basin destinations over time. This shift, along with the abnormally depressed second-tier relativities is expected to naturally lower our gross price realizations. Despite this, we expect the increased weighing toward High-Vol A products to drive margin expansion through the impact of the low-cost profile of Blue Creek on lowering our cash cost of sales. Turning back to our financial results. For the fourth consecutive quarter, Warrior achieved record high quarterly sales volume in the second quarter of 3.7 million short tons compared to 2.2 million in the same quarter of 2025. This represents a 65% increase primarily due to the additional sales volume from the Blue Creek mine. Our second quarter sales volume mix was 66% of High-Vol A and 34% of premium low vol. Our sales by geography for the second quarter break down as follows: 50% into Asia, 35% in Europe and 14% in South America. Our spot volume was 13% for the second quarter of 2026. Sales volumes into the Pacific Basin were 50% this quarter compared to 52% in the second quarter of 2025. Production volume in the second quarter of 2026 was 3.3 million short tons compared to 2.3 million in the same quarter of last year, representing a 45% increase. This increase reflects the significant contribution of Blue Creek. Our coal inventory levels decreased to 1.4 million short tons at the end of June this year compared to 1.9 million tons at the end of March 2026. We expect to continue driving our excess inventory downwards over the remainder of the year to maximize sales volume, profitability and free cash flow. I'll now ask Dale to address our second quarter results in greater detail.

Thanks, Walt. We were pleased with our financial results for the second quarter of 2026, especially with our free cash flow generation. As Walt mentioned, the second quarter marked a key inflection point for our business. With the Blue Creek construction CapEx behind us and by using working capital to drive the higher sales and production volumes out of Blue Creek, we were able to generate significant free cash flow. Warrior recorded net income of $87 million or $1.65 per diluted share in the second quarter of this year compared to net income of $6 million or $0.11 per diluted share in the same quarter of 2025. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $157 million compared to $54 million in the same quarter of 2025, an increase of 193%. Our adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 31% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to 18% in the same quarter of last year. On a per ton basis, our adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 78% to $43 per short ton for the second quarter of 2026 compared to $24 in the last year's second quarter. The primary drivers of these improvements were a 65% increase in sales volumes, a 6% increase in average net selling prices, and a 9% reduction in cash cost, reflecting the increasing contribution from our new Blue Creek mine. Total revenues were $510 million compared to $298 million in the same quarter of last year. The total increase of $212 million was primarily due to the impact of higher sales volumes of $186 million and the impact of an increase in average gross selling prices of $73 million. This was partially offset by the impact of a 21% higher mix of High-Vol A tons sold, which had an impact on revenues of $40 million. In addition, the demurrage and other charges were $9 million higher compared to last year's second quarter. This resulted in an average net selling price of $138 per short ton in the second quarter of 2026 compared to $130 in the second quarter of last year. Cash cost of sales were $338 million or 67% of mining revenues in the second quarter of this year compared to $225 million or 78% of mining revenues in the second quarter of last year. Of the $113 million net increase in cash cost of sales, there was a $145 million increase in costs, which were attributed to the 65% increase in sales volumes and slightly higher variable transportation and royalty costs on higher average steelmaking coal price indices. These higher costs were offset partially by $32 million of lower costs that were driven by the leverage of low-cost Blue Creek tons sold and the benefit from the 45X production credit. We have seen smaller amounts of inflation on various materials and supplies as we have previously discussed. However, it has not been aggregated to a material amount at this point in the year. Cash cost of sales per short ton, FOB port, was approximately $93 compared to $101 in the same quarter last year. The 9% decrease was primarily related to the factors that I just mentioned on a dollar basis. Cash margins per short ton increased 57% to $45 in the second quarter from $29 in the same quarter of last year. While we have a higher mix of High-Vol A product at lower U.S. East Coast index prices than in previous periods, Blue Creek has created margin expansion with its inherently lower cost structure. Our second quarter 2026 SG&A expenses were $10 million and were $2 million lower than the same quarter of 2025. This decrease was due to funds received from the old Walter Energy bankruptcy proceedings of $2 million during this year's second quarter. Depreciation and depletion expenses were $58 million in the second quarter, which was 35% higher than the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to the additional assets placed into service at Blue Creek and the higher sales volume in the second quarter of 2026. We recorded income tax expense of approximately $4 million on pretax income of $91 million in the second quarter of 2026. Our effective income tax rate varied from the statutory federal income tax rate of 21%, primarily due to tax benefits recognized for depletion expense and a foreign-derived intangible income deduction, resulting in an effective income tax rate of 4%. Now let's turn to cash flows. Cash flows from operating activities were $132 million in the second quarter of 2026 and were $95 million higher than the previous year's second quarter, driven by the growth in revenue. Working capital increased by $14 million, primarily due to higher supplies inventory, higher prepaid expenses, lower accrued expenses, partially offset by favorable collections of accounts receivable. Free cash flow was $103 million due to $132 million of cash provided by operations, combined with cash used for capital expenditures of $29 million. This second quarter result brought free cash flow to a positive $11 million for the first half of 2026, which was slightly better than we expected. The inflection point in our free cash flow generation marks a significant turning point from strategic investment to future stockholder returns. We were pleased that we increased our cash and total liquidity while delivering higher profitability. Our total available liquidity at the end of the second quarter was $453 million and consisted of cash and cash equivalents of $302 million, short-term investments of $10 million and $141 million available under our ABL facility. Given the significant increase in adjusted EBITDA from the first quarter of 2026, I want to highlight the primary drivers of this change. First, our sales volumes were 22% higher in the second quarter, positively impacted by an increase in tons sold from Blue Creek. Second, the increase of Blue Creek tons sold had a positive impact on cash cost per ton, which were $3 lower in the second quarter, primarily attributed to Blue Creek's inherently low cost structure. Third, our average net selling price decreased in the second quarter by about $12 per ton or 8%. This was primarily due to a 5% higher mix of High-Vol A volumes sold, 11% more volumes sold into the Atlantic Basin on lower U.S. East Coast High-Vol A prices, higher freight rates into the Pacific Basin due to the Iran conflict, and higher demurrage rates. And finally, cash usage from working capital requirements decreased from $146 million in the first quarter to a usage of $14 million in the second quarter. This resulted in operating cash flows of $132 million, which was $144 million higher than the first quarter of 2026. We were pleased to see the positive factors significantly outweigh the negative factors. Finally, let me turn to our current outlook and guidance for the full year 2026 as detailed in our earnings release. We have been pleased with the continued positive reception of the Blue Creek trial volumes and the adoption by our customers, which has surpassed our high expectations. As a result, the company is raising its sales and production volume guidance by 0.5 million tons. This will increase Blue Creek sales volume to 5 million short tons for the full year, of which 90% is already under contract. As we noted in our first quarter earnings call, we continue to see inflationary cost pressures on a wide variety of materials and supplies, such as steel roof supports, steer bits and diesel fuel. Individually, each of these items is not material to our cost structure. However, the aggregation of broader inflation could become larger. While we have not been materially impacted by inflation so far this year, we believe the remainder of the year could see an increase of a few dollars per ton. I'll now turn it back to Walt for his final comments.

Thanks, Dale. Warrior continued its strong performance in the second quarter. Our financial and operational results were better than expected, impacted in part by premium quality steelmaking coal prices being higher for a longer period of time. This strong first half 2026 supports our revised full year outlook and guidance. Looking forward, we expect the market to remain sensitive to short-term supply disruptions, regional trade flows and steel market conditions. While the premium segment remains relatively tighter than the broader steelmaking coal market, we do not believe that current steel fundamentals are strong enough to support a sustained return to the price momentum observed earlier in the year. We also expect to see improvements in the supply of Australian premium coals. We'll continue to monitor developments in China very closely as any further actions from the government can easily sway the markets in either direction. From a pricing perspective, we expect the PLV to remain above the depressed levels observed through most of 2025, but below the supply-driven highs experienced during the first half of 2026. The most likely outcome in our view is a lower range-bound market with periods of volatility driven by weather, logistics, geopolitical developments and regional buying patterns. We also continue to expect that second-tier indices will remain at depressed levels relative to the PLV as observed for the past several quarters. This expectation could put pressure on our net selling prices, profitability and free cash flow generation in the second half of the year as compared to the first half. We've been pleased with the reception of the product coming out of our new mine as demonstrated by the successful trials and adoption by our customers. As a result, we've been able to gain market share, mostly with strategic customers that recognize our differentiated value proposition. This positive reception from our customers led to the increase in our full year guidance volumes, as Dale described earlier. We believe similar opportunities will continue to present themselves, especially as we approach the contract season later this year. Most importantly, Warrior has the tools to continue to drive value creation for our stockholders by continuing to execute our strategy to optimize production, control our costs, and generate free cash flow. With our high-quality assets and low first quartile cost structure, we're as well positioned as we've ever been to thrive in a wide range of steelmaking coal environments. With that, we'd like to open the call for questions. Operator?

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities.

Guys, congrats on another strong quarter. Maybe just a first clarification. Can you provide a breakdown of shipments across each individual mine, specifically Blue Creek?

No, we don't get into that much detail. We just haven't done that.

Okay. Understood. Maybe just on realizations. They continue to be under pressure. You mentioned the volatility around freight rates. Should we kind of expect more of the same from a relativity perspective in 3Q? And then kind of how much volume could you look to maybe shift to the Atlantic Basin where freight rates may be less volatile?

I think you're going to see kind of a continuation of where we've been year-to-date. I don't expect a great deal of fluctuation there. I do think with the low-vol price coming down, it wouldn't surprise me to see the relativities close back up and see us sitting at where the High-Vol A price kind of stays a little more steady than the low-vol price as it comes down. That's just speculation on my part.

Yes. And as far as shifting shipments to one basin to the other, that really depends on customer demand and when they want their shipments because, as we said, 90% of our volume this year is under contract. And when they -- when they want it, it's when they want it, we can't really dictate that.

No, understood. No, that's helpful. Maybe just, Dale, one for you on shareholder returns. I mean, free cash flow in the quarter was very strong. Are you getting to a point where you're ready to kind of increase shareholder returns? Or would you prefer to build kind of a higher cash balance in the second half year?

Yes, I think so. Even with prices declining as they have in the recent weeks, I do think we're going to start to really see strong cash flow generation, which means or should mean higher returns to shareholders. We're going to have to generate that cash first and see where we go from there.

The next question comes from George Eadie with UBS.

Congrats on this stuff this quarter. Dale, can we just quantify that a bit more? Like, what is the ideal sort of steady-state cash level? Is it -- $400 million, is that a good estimate? And then secondly, can you also remind me the state of potential buybacks and NOLs as well, please?

Yes. Cash, we like to see in a range of $350 million to $400 million. So a total of -- total liquidity of around $500 million in total. The status of the NOLs -- well, we utilized all the NOLs on the federal side back in 2023, I believe it is. And all we have now is state NOLs, and we still have $900 million of those approximately. But those are -- we don't pay any Alabama tax, so I'm not sure we'll be able to use a lot of those NOLs in the future. As far as buybacks, that's one of the options that we have, one of the levers we have in providing returns to shareholders. And as we get to that point, when we're looking at future returns, we'll give that a consideration.

Okay. And just on sort of Walt's comments earlier about the pricing dynamic, like what are the things you're watching specifically in the market to see High-Vol A prices return to a higher level relative to the Queensland benchmark price structurally on a sort of medium-term view?

I just think that High-Vol A prices are where they are in the Atlantic Basin because of the volume of High-Vol A available. And I think they're disconnected from the low-vol price. And as the low-vol price begins to retreat, I'm not sure -- again, it's just speculation on my part, I'm not sure that the High-Vol A price in the Atlantic Basin will retreat in equal amounts. So that's what would close the relativities up potentially.

Okay. So we need to see supply coming out of high vol essentially is the answer you think, Walt?

I think that's the final answer, yes.

The next question comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets.

Maybe on the cost side. So the performance year-to-date has been very good. And when we look at your cost target, it does imply a more material increase in cost in the second half. And I know, Dale, you mentioned that there are inflationary pressures, but at the same time, those have not been material. So can you maybe talk about what met coal prices do you assume in the second half specifically that would contribute to maybe higher costs? Or how should we think what the main moving pieces on the cost side are?

Well, you talked about some inflation, but we're pretty near the bottom end of our range already. So we're 93% year-to-date versus 95% on the bottom. So I don't see that as different. So -- and the higher number is just based on some higher estimates on pricing, over 200 for a PLV. So we baked in some inflation into that number and just provides some cushion for anything that might happen in the second half of the year.

Maybe looking beyond this year on the CapEx side, can you just remind us what the maintenance CapEx, or how should we think about CapEx over the next few years?

Well, for this year, it was -- $105 million to $115 million is our guide for this year for the existing mines. And that excluded Blue Creek. So you probably need to add another $25 million to $30 million for that. So you're looking at $130 million to $150-ish on a recurring basis, probably broad range.

The next question comes from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company.

Just sticking with the cost per ton for a moment. Some of your peers have talked about elevated diesel prices. Do you guys expect those to impact your operations at all in the back half of the year?

They are lingering but not a significant amount. We don't use a lot of diesel. So we don't truck a lot of coal. And what we do truck, we could also ship by rail. So we have optionality there. But we just don't typically use a significant amount of diesel. But as I said in my prepared remarks, look, when you add them all up, you can see a few dollars a ton when it all adds up between steel prices and other chemicals, all kinds of things.

Dale, I appreciate that. Secondly, can we get a few details around the reported electrical outage at the Port of Mobile? Any lingering effects there for you guys?

No, no lingering effects. We saw it for a few days. I mean it's really that time of the year where between storms and other things, we expect some outages down there, and we just managed to have one down there from an electrical standpoint for a few days. But no, we don't expect any lingering effects.

All right. Good to hear, Walt. And then maybe finally, related to longwall moves, it all look like one might have shifted from the second quarter into the third quarter. Could we get some details around which mines the remaining longwall moves are occurring at in the various quarters?

I think when we look at our longwall moves, given the number of sets of shields we have, we have done a -- we've worked very hard to make sure we continue to have 0-day longwall moves. So I think impact from longwall moves will be minimal, if any, throughout the rest of the year.

The next question comes from Alex Hacking with Citi.

I just had one question on the realized price. I guess I didn't quite follow the prepared remarks. The price was down $12 quarter-on-quarter. Indexes were flattish. I mean I think, obviously, freight to the Pacific Basin was quite a bit higher, but you're also -- your mix was tilted more towards the Atlantic Basin. So that seems neutral-ish. So I guess what am I missing as to understand the quarterly decline in the realized price?

Yes. Well, first, we did have higher volumes, okay? So -- but let me see, looking at the change here. The biggest one was 10% more volume went into Europe versus the first quarter. And as we said in our prepared remarks, those prices were lower U.S. East Coast prices because they were down when you look at the quarter. So we had less going into Asia of about 10%, but Asia is still -- those freight rates were much, much higher. They averaged about almost $10 a ton higher in the first -- in the second quarter versus the first quarter.

[Operator Instructions] The next question omes from Chris LaFemina with Jefferies. p id="137301578" name="Christopher LaFemina" type="A" /> So I want to ask on the cost performance in the quarter and then on the cost guidance. So first, in the cost for the quarter, how much of the reduction from the year ago period was due to 45X tax credits? Have you disclosed what the tax credit was in the second quarter? I apologize if I missed that.

Yes. It was about $3 a ton, Chris, somewhere around Chris --

The delta from last year to this year was $3 a ton?

Yes, $3 a ton. That's correct.

And then secondly, on the lower cost -- high end of the cost guidance for the year, I assume that's because the higher sales volume is incremental tons that come from Blue Creek, which is lower cost. Is that why the high end of the cost guidance range has been lowered?

Yes, that's right.

So you said of the 13 million to 14 million tons of expected sales this year, 5 million would be from Blue Creek and it would have been $4.5 million before. Is that correct?

That's correct. And 90% of that is contracted.

And we have a follow-up from Nick Giles with B. Riley Securities.

Just given the success you've had in contracting Blue Creek tons thus far at the expense of stating the obvious that the market remains weak, what would prevent you from moving up to the targeted 6 million ton run rate sooner than expected? Or is that still the right kind of target run rate to have in mind as we think about 2027 and beyond?

I still think we're going to try to maximize the production out of that mine, and it's just a matter of getting the people in line and getting the -- everything worked where we want it, and then we will absolutely maximize the production coming out of that mine.

Got it. And maybe, Walt, just on that point, can you just kind of give us an update on where things stand from a hiring perspective?

We're -- right now, we're staffed to run 4 continuous minor units in longwall, which is where we wanted to be. We are -- we have some openings. We're still trying to fill jobs, but we're feeling pretty good about where we're staffed right now.

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Scheller for any comments.

That concludes our call this afternoon. Thank you again for joining us today, and we appreciate your interest in Warrior.

Thank you. Again, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for all -- thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.