Walter Scheller
Analyst · BMO Capital
Thanks, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us today to discuss our third quarter 2019 results. After my remarks, Dale will review our results in additional detail and then you'll have the opportunity to ask questions. Warrior performed exceptionally well and exceeded our expectations in the third quarter, which led to near-record quarterly high sales volumes. The mines continued their strong performance, achieving strong levels of production that drove the high sales volumes despite challenging market conditions impacting met coal prices. We recorded $288 million in revenues, $83 million of adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow of $118 million. Production volume in the third quarter was 2.2 million short tons compared to 1.8 million short tons produced in the same quarter of 2018, an increase of 19%. We successfully completed 2 longwall moves in the third quarter of this year, which is consistent with the amount of longwall move achieved in the third quarter of 2018. These results demonstrate the significant efforts made by our employees in anticipating and planning our longwall moves, proactively driving production efficiencies and managing our equipment downtime. In addition, the capital investments that we've made in our mines continue to be extremely beneficial as we strive to reach full capacity through improved production efficiencies and better equipment utilization with less downtime in a safe environment. A good example is the extra set of longwall shields that we purchased for Mine 7. The shields reduced the time required to move a longwall and therefore, mitigated the impact on production from the longwall moves. It also provided additional flexibility and risk mitigation to minimize periods of production downtime if we encountered unexpected geological conditions. The company spent $33 million on capital expenditures and mine development costs during the third quarter of this year compared to $24 million during the same period last year. This amount includes the longwall panel development costs for the ongoing extension of Mine 4 into 4 North, the next area of the mine plan. In addition, the 4 North cash spending included construction of the service shaft and hoist as can be seen on Pages 11 to 12 of our investor presentation on our website. When the 4 North extension is completed, it will feature new state-of-the-art equipment and facilities, including a new portal, bathhouse, power substation and bunkering system. We expect to be longwall mining in that area sometime in the next 5 to 6 years, and intend to spread the capital spending over that same time period. We achieved a sales volume of 2.0 million short tons in the third quarter of 2019, which reflects a 19% increase compared to the same quarter of 2018. Demand from our customers continue to be strong during the third quarter of this year despite the challenging market conditions, which I will discuss in a few minutes. Our sales by geography in the third quarter of 2019 were 55% into Europe, 25% into South America and 20% into Asia. By way of comparison, the geographical mix in last year's third quarter did not include any sales into Asia when sales were higher in both Europe and South America. Inventories increased 118,000 short tons from the second quarter to 602,000 short tons, primarily due to higher production volumes. We continuously manage our inventory levels to the lowest possible amounts while optimizing our supply chain and the flow of met coal deliveries to the port. Our actual level of inventory can be significantly impacted by several factors that are primarily timing related such as mixed, delayed schedules or loading delays caused by storms in the Gulf. The Platts Premium Low Vol Australian Index price closed the third quarter $52 per metric ton lower or approximately 27% lower than where it started the quarter in July. Our gross price realization for the third quarter was 102% of the Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australian Index price and was higher than the prior year period of 97%. Remember, the actual percentage is a blended rate of our low and mid vol met coal sales. Let's now turn to market conditions in the third quarter. As we had anticipated, the global production growth of pig iron eased somewhat in the third quarter, coming off very strong results achieved in the first half of 2019. Despite a slower growth rate in the third quarter, global pig iron production over the first 9 months of 2019 was still up by 3.4% of the global pig iron production volume we saw for the same period of 2018. However, excluding Chinese production, global pig iron production volume across the remaining countries contracted by 1.4%. Lower production rates were felt in almost all producing countries in the Atlantic Basin as well as other prominent producing countries like Japan. The third quarter is normally a seasonally slower period but it is widely believed that the lower activity reflects the response of steel producers to softer demand and compressed margins. We believe these factors, among others, contributed to the dip in met coal prices during the third quarter. On average, the major pricing indices corrected more than 30% from their July 1 levels, establishing their low points toward the end of the third quarter. Despite being largely as expected, the correction was significantly quicker and steeper than predicted, surprising most market participants. We believe there were 3 principal drivers behind the correction in pricing: first, the implementation of Chinese port restrictions on imported coal; second, the slower demand for met coals outside of China; and third, the global seaboard supply chain that operated with minimal disruptions as in past quarters. Where your strong performance continues to demonstrate the unique value of our highly focused business strategy as a premium, pure-play and met coal producer. Our goal is to operate profitably and maximize cash flow generation in any pricing environment, not just in the favorable conditions we've experienced in the past. We've invested in the business where appropriate to support this strategy, and we've also continued to reward our stockholders as conditions warrant. Our operational successes are a credit to the hard work and dedication of our employees, and I thank them for all they've been doing to help us perform as strongly as we did in the third quarter. Our top priority remains working safely, as that is the first and most important step to working efficiently and ultimately achieving success in the marketplace. Where your safety incident rates are some of the lowest in the country but we strive for 0 injuries. In addition to discussing our strong performance in the third quarter, I also wanted to give you an update on our Blue Creek growth project. You can refer to Slides 13 through 16 of our quarterly investor presentation on our website. As previously stated, Blue Creek is one of the few remaining untapped reserves of premium high vol A met coal in the United States. We are excited by the promising results from our early work, and believe Blue Creek has the potential to deliver significant value to our stockholders. Our initial work has focused on the feasibility of a single longwall operation with annual production of approximately 3 million short tons with a potential mine life of 40 to 60 years. While we continue to refine project parameters in 2019, our initial studies have demonstrated robust returns across the range of met coal prices. These initial studies estimate capital expenditures of approximately $550 million to $600 million over 5 years. Warrior continues to pursue several activities to maintain project momentum and optimize Blue Creek's project parameters. These activities include additional core hole drilling to gather geological and marketing data; evaluating strategic rail and barge transportation partnerships; and obtaining permits for slurry storage and course refuse areas. We are currently working with several vendors to finalize construction plans to ensure that the development plans are solid. We are also considering allowing for the full potential of 2 longwalls, which would mean annual production of up to approximately 6 million short tons, if desired. Additionally, we plan to continue to explore potential offtake arrangements as well as project financing alternatives. We expect Blue Creek will be fully permitted and shovel-ready by early 2020, at which point Warrior would be in a position to make a decision on future development. We're extremely excited by the potential we see at Blue Creek, and believe the project's become the cornerstone of our future portfolio. We look forward to providing updates to our stockholders over the next few months. I'll now ask Dale to address our third quarter results in greater detail.