Earnings Labs

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)

Q2 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Aug 1, 2018

$89.11

+1.87%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-6.02%

1 Week

-3.69%

1 Month

-9.45%

vs S&P

-12.81%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Gary, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Warrior Met Coal Second Quarter 2018 Financial Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Before we begin, I have been asked to note that today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from those discussed. For more information regarding forward-looking statements, please refer to the Company's press release and SEC filings. I have also been asked to note that the Company has posted reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed during this call in the tables accompanying the Company's earnings release, located on the Investors section of the Company's website at www.warriormetcoal.com. In addition to the earnings release, the Company has posted a brief supplemental slide presentation to the Investors section of its website at www.warriormetcoal.com. Please note, this event is being recorded. Here today to discuss the Company's results are Mr. Walt Scheller, Chief Executive Officer of Warrior Met Coal; and Mr. Dale Boyles, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Scheller, you may begin your remarks.

Walter Scheller

Analyst

Thanks, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for taking the time to join us today to discuss our second quarter results. After my remarks, Dale will review our results and additional detail, and then you will have the opportunity to ask any questions you may have. We had another solid performance in the second quarter continuing to leverage the strength of our operations and the healthy market demand for our premium product. While volumes moderated somewhat from the record highs we saw in the first quarter, our performance tracked in line with or better than our expectations. Production volume for the quarter was $1.9 million short tons roughly equivalent to the amount produced in the same quarter in 2017. The actual production volume was better than expected given that we entered the second quarter with a scheduled shutdown for a week of maintenance at one of our mines. Our sales volumes were slightly lower than the prior year period. In the second quarter we saw market condition keeping prices elevated around $180 to $200 per metric ton that were all from the first quarter highs. On the supply side issues out of Australia continued with heavy planned maintenance, weather delays related to Cyclone Iris, the Aurizon Rail dispute and specific Australian mine production issues all contributing to tighter global supply conditions. Customer demand continued to be impacted by Chinese steel production policies. The global GDP growth and resilient global steel demand and production have continued to buoy the market. Restocking after the Chinese New Year is likely also to have had a positive impact. Our gross price realization for the second quarter was 100% of the Platts premium low-vol FOB Australian index price reflecting the premiums we achieved on our low-vol and mid-vol coals in a heightened pricing environment throughout…

Dale Boyles

Analyst

Thanks Walt. For the second quarter of 2018 net income on a GAAP basis was $91 million or $1.72 per diluted share compared to net income of $130 million or $2.46 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2017. Excluding one-time transaction and other expenses for the secondary offerings and incremental non-cash stock compensation expense in the second quarter, non-GAAP adjusted net income was $96 million or $1.81 per diluted share. Adjusted net income for the second quarter of 2017 was $2.52 per diluted share and excluded expenses associated with the IPO last year. And lower met coal price was the largest factor negatively impacting results quarter-over-quarter by approximately $27 million. Remember Cyclone Debbie occurred in the early part of Q2 last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $129 million in the second quarter as compared to adjusted EBITDA of $188 million in the same period of 2017. The company's adjusted EBITDA margins which we calculate as adjusted EBITDA divided by total revenues and which we believe are some of the highest in the industry were 40% for the second quarter compared to 52% in the same period last year. In summary, the current quarter results were lower than the prior year primarily due to lower realized pricing, higher costs associated with the weak shutdown of maintenance, the continued ramp up of mining activities from early 2017 and slightly lower sales volumes. These higher costs were already built into the company's original full-year 2018 guidance and are not expected to be incremental. Total revenues for the second quarter of 2018 was $323 million which included met coal sales of 1.9 million short tons at an average net selling price of $167 per short ton. Total revenues in the quarter were $41 million lower than the second quarter of 2017 on a…

Walter Scheller

Analyst

Thanks Dale, before we move on to Q&A, I would like to summarize where we stand from an operations standpoint. In short, we did what we said we would do on last quarter's call. Our plan for the second quarter reflected the decisions we took earlier this year. Coming off three longwall moves in the first quarter of 2017 we ran the operations harder than we originally planned to take advantage of the high price environment during the first quarter. We ran the mines an extra six days during the first quarter and that resulted in bringing forward an extra longwall move into 2018. We also planned a six-day outage during the second quarter to complete several expected maintenance projects. While this will not necessarily reduce production at both mines, we completed the process better than expected resulting in approximately 200,000 tons more of production. As a result of record production in the first quarter of this year, we planned two back-to-back longwall moves in the third quarter. This also meant slightly less production in the second quarter as we neared the end of the panels because the coal scenes get better and mining equipment nears its required rebuilding. As I've said on previous calls we've run the business as if next pricing downturn and geological issue is just around the corner with conservative targets and flexible operations that allow us to adjust to the market environment if it changes throughout the year. Given our strong performance in the first two quarters we feel good about our prospects for the balance of the year and that is reflected in our acreage guidance ranges. In conclusion Warrior's outlook remains strong as we make real strides in returning our operations to the nameplate capacity of 8million short tons. We expect Warrior's premium, high CSR coal coupled with our highly flexible cost structure will enable us to continue to generate industry-leading margins and strong cash flows through this cycle. With that, we'd like to open the call for questions. Operator?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Jeremy Sussman with Clarksons. Please go ahead.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

Hi, thanks very much for taking my question.

Walter Scheller

Analyst

Sure, Jeremy.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

Well, nice to see you raising guidance to 7.1 million to 7.5 million tons this year. I guess as – if I look forward over the next couple of years as sort of the 8 million ton run rate is that still the plan, I guess how should we think about that dynamic?

Walter Scheller

Analyst

Yes, our plan is still to achieve that 8 million ton run rate. As you can see the first half of this year we got up to 4 million, a little over 4 million in the first half of the year and we will have these three longwall moves and we're tweaking a few things in the R&R [ph] operating plan and still growing toward that 8 million ton run rate and we still expect to be able to get there.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

Okay and from a timing perspective, when should we start to look for that?

Walter Scheller

Analyst

Our goal is still by year end you guys are going to say that the way we've performed sure looks a lot like we're getting there.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

Perfect and I would agree with that and I guess, if I think about a very strong quarter I think generated $133 million of cash flow from operating activities. Obviously with the special dividends you are now I guess $55 million or so of cash on hand, you should generate some nice cash in the second half assuming the medical curve is reasonably accurate. Do you sort of have a target kind of yearend cash level that we should think about?

Dale Boyles

Analyst

Hey Jeremy its Dale. Thanks for the question. The targets as we said before for cash we can really run this business on a minimal amount of cash because of the cost structure. Obviously we do have some fix payments now with interest on our notes and everything with no debt maturities any time soon. So we can still run at pretty low levels and we will continue to kind of manage and optimize the capital structure and look at all the opportunities that are presented every quarter from a capital standpoint either capital expenditures or other opportunities but no specific targets on cash at this time. Let me just make a note to – it just came to my attention that our 8-K was filed and it is on our website, but I believe Business Wire has had some technical issue with issuing it in their space, so if you don't see it out in the News wire you can pick it up off our website at www.warriormetcoal.com.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

Thanks Dale, and it sounds like just to make sure I understand it, it sounds like from a capital allocation standpoint there is no deviation from sort of how you've been running the business, is that fair to characterize?

Dale Boyles

Analyst

That's right, Jeremy. We will continue with our same capital allocation policy to the extent there is excess cash available. We will return that in various forms back to shareholders either through the stock repurchase plan that we have now or other special dividends or may use it to delever or other opportunities just depending upon what we had on plans at that time.

Jeremy Sussman

Analyst

Great, I appreciate it, thanks guys.

Dale Boyles

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Hey, good afternoon everybody.

Dale Boyles

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Hi Lucas.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Good job on the quarter and rising the guidance. I wanted to follow up on the cost side a little bit, obviously steel prices have increased tremendously over the past 12 months and by and large that's good news for you because you’re selling to the steel industry. But I wonder are you seeing cost pressures [indiscernible] I know I mean you are a longwall miner obviously, so it is not as pertinent to you as maybe to some others, but are you seeing cost pressure from steel components and if so to what degree could that impact your costs for the remainder of the year and then maybe also on the capital side would that have an impact? Thank you.

Dale Boyles

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Sure, we see nothing significant at this point and as we look to our capital allocations and our expectations, most of that has already been built. So no, we don’t see, we had not had any significant inflationary pressures and we don’t think as we look throughout the rest of this year that that will be a factor.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Okay, and in terms of your cost structure, what percent would be associated with the steel product?

Walter Scheller

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

It’s a small percentage, so nothing of any huge significance. You would have to experience 100% of inflation in all of that to really have something significant material.

Lucas Pipes

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Got it, okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

Walter Scheller

Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Scheller for any comments.

Walter Scheller

Analyst

That concludes our call for this afternoon. Thank you again for joining us today and we appreciate your interest in Warrior Met Coal.