Zach Wasserman
Analyst · UBS. Please proceed with your question.
Sure. Great questions. There's a lot in there to unpack. So let me address those both. As it relates to asset sensitivity for December, I expect it to be roughly consistent with the asset sensitivity we saw, that was reported in October. And you'll see that come out in the Q. I'm sorry, in the K. As we've discussed over time, the business is naturally asset-sensitive. And so clearly on the way up with the industry cycle, we've benefited very significantly in terms of margin expansion and revenue growth. I will note as well, something just as important to assess as you're thinking about asset sensitivity is, in our securities portfolio, as you know, we've hedged a large portion of our variable for sale securities, which has benefited significantly in terms of yields rising higher, protecting capital in the asset sensitivity metric in the Dow 100 [rapid] (ph) scenario, for example. It represents about a percentage point of additional sensitivity from those swaps. Those swaps will roll off over the course of the next 12 to 18 months. And most of that impact of sensitivity will begin to ramp off starting in the second half of 2024 and continuing on for about a 12-month period thereafter. The other thing I'll just say is that, as an important point is, those sensitivity metrics are pretty academic and not standardized across the industry with lots of assumptions, the beta being the most significant, but also whether those analyses are ramps on top of the forward curve, or whether they're just from a start point, ours is a ramp on top of the forward curve. So certainly, advising is important to assess those assumptions pretty carefully in comparing those metrics across firms. Back to -- so in terms of our [indiscernible] management posture, incrementally from here I see the opportunity to add downside rate reduction hedges. Our hedging strategy is incrementally shifting from a focus on capital protection to a focus on down rate protection, as we discussed in the prepared remarks. And we added some of that in Q4. I suspect we'll continue to be incrementally adding into those down rate protection strategies over time, which would gradually reduce downside asset sensitivity. In terms of deposit beta and what we would be expecting for the first x basis points, to give you a sense, in the scenario that I'm looking at where rates in fact begin to fall in March and then have five cuts in, even though it’s little more than your scenario, we would expect to see about a 20% roughly down data over a three quarter period by the end of 2024. We would, of course, be less than that if there was an extended pause through the late summertime period, but just to give you a sense of the sensitivity to your question.