Stephen D. Steinour
Analyst · Morgan Stanley
Thanks, Dan. Turning to Slide 23. Our Fair Play banking philosophy, coupled with our Optimal Customer Relationship, or OCR, continues to drive new customer growth and strength in product penetration. This slide recaps the continued upward trend in consumer checking account households. For the quarter, consumer checking account households grew by 96,000 households or 8% over the last year. The fourth quarter experienced a normal seasonal slowdown in growth. And since we launched this strategy in 2010, fourth quarters have always been the slowest growth quarter of the year as customers' attentions are obviously elsewhere: Holidays, fewer home purchases, kids returning to schools, et cetera. Because of this, we tend to spend less on marketing in the late fall and early winter, but you also will notice that the full year marketing expense is down $13 million or 20% as we continue to refine our marketing efforts and investments. Over this last year, we've meaningfully increased the number of products and services we provide to these customers. The chart that you're accustomed seeing is in the appendix, but the broader takeaway is the strategy continues to drive new customers and we are establishing deeper relationships. We now have enough managed data to see that our new customers, those that are 2 and 3 years after they have chosen Huntington, have meaningfully higher retention rates. Revenue is down slightly as we continue to see pressure from the operating environment. Turning to Slide 24, commercial relationships grew at a rate of 6% and have increased by 9,000 commercial customers since this time last year. Very early in the year, we had a meaningful focus on growing small business relationships, most of which are handled through the branch network. You can see the impact in the first and second quarters. The second half of the year had more focus on product penetration and maturing these customers, and that's why you see the continued increase in 4-plus cross-sell and revenues up $14 million year-over-year. Now turning to Slide 25. 2013 laid a solid foundation for 2014. The environment in 2013 was different than we thought it would be when we began this journey. The economic interest rate and political environments were more dour and volatile, but that also allowed some of Huntington's strengths to show through. This is a company that can execute. Dave discussed briefly some of the commitments we made this time last year and how we delivered on those commitments. Many of you didn't think positive operating leverage was going to be possible at the mid-year mark, but we ran through our playbook and slowed the pace and scale of our investments. Going into 2014, we built a similar playbook and will, if necessary, adjust. Right now, we're seeing strong momentum as customers seem to have a slightly better mindset as troubles in Washington, D.C. seem to be less of an issue, and the general economic outlook and confidence is more positive. From our year-end customer calls and conversations with CEOs and business owners, there is now definitely more confidence going into 2014 than the prior year. Modest loan growth is expected to continue and know that we will remain disciplined. C&I pipeline remains robust, and we continue to see increases in customer activity, which as you saw this past quarter, not only helps the balance sheet, but also fee income, like capital markets, SBA, loan sales and other income such as loan and leasing fees. Auto loan originations remained strong. 2013 was the best year we've ever had. Originations grew 5%, granted the new car industry grew at nearly 10%, but the industry growth is expected to continue, and we should see a benefit in our originations. We know we will get back into the auto securitization market at some point. But at this time, we aren't expecting any securitizations in 2014, as we have a couple of billion dollars of additional balance sheet capacity. The remainder of loan categories should reflect modest growth. The loan growth, coupled with higher start point for securities, will drive a bigger balance sheet. NIM is expected to be under pressure as competition remains aggressive. Compared to a year ago, we view the rate environment is adding even more pressure as the Fed expects to hold the short-end of the curve low for a while, and the net interest margin is being further diluted by the mix impact of holding additional Basel III Level 1 securities. Even with these negative pressures, the balance sheet growth we expect should result in moderate net interest income growth for the year. Noninterest income is expected to decline slightly, much less than you saw this past year, as mortgage banking income was near-normal levels during the second half and within about $1 million of -- in the fourth quarter of what we expected it to be. We expected continued modest pressure on mortgage income, as we think 2014 will not be a normal year. There's just too much refi volume pulled forward, but we've seen a nice pickup in new purchase mix. The rest of the fee income areas continue to mature, although we may look for continued opportunities to refine our product set under our Fair Play philosophy. Noninterest expense has some noise this year, but the underlying level was lower than the previous year, as we took an active stance around delivering on our commitment of positive operating leverage, a commitment we are extending into 2014. We will deliver positive operating leverage again in 2014. From here, noninterest expense is expected to remain near current levels. The mix will change as we've increased depreciation for past and current investments, but we expect declines in other areas such as our insurance costs, our outside services, and actions we took in the third and fourth quarter will have continuing benefits. On the credit front, NPAs are expected to experience continued improvement. Net charge-offs are in our long-term range of 35 to 50 basis points -- 55 basis points. But provision, while still experiencing credit dividend throughout the year, is likely to increase. And both are expected to continue to experience some volatility given the absolutely low levels. At this point, I want to turn it back to Todd to open for Q&A.