Jeff Lipson
Analyst · Cowen and Company. Please go ahead
Thanks, Jeff. On slide 7, we detail our $3.9 billion balance sheet portfolio as of the third quarter of 2022, which has grown 22% over the last year. We added over 100 new investments in the past year, contributing to our recurring net investment income. Our portfolio now includes over 365 investments across eight asset classes as the diversity of the business remains an ongoing positive attribute. The projects underlying these investments represent over 12 gigawatts of clean energy and improving economic value in times of higher commodity prices and provide cost-effective critical energy to end users. Therefore, these investments are non-cyclical with 99% of investments currently performing within our financial expectations, and we do not expect a recession to negatively impact the performance of these investments. Further, we detail our Q3 portfolio reconciliation on the right side of the slide. The portfolio balance was flat for the quarter as we funded $91 million of investments, offset by collections and securitizations on existing assets. Funding expectations of previously closed transactions is over $625 million expected to fund through 2023. On slide 8, we have summarized our third quarter results with a year-over-year comparison on the top left and year-to-date comparisons on the remainder of the slide. We recorded distributable earnings per share of $0.49 in the third quarter, which is up 20% year-over-year. We also had a strong quarter of distributable net investment income of approximately $43 million, which is up 36% year-over-year and recorded a gain on sale of $19 million. In the upper right, we note year-to-date distributable EPS growth was 13% year-over-year, primarily due to higher revenue from a larger portfolio. In addition, as shown on the lower right, we are on track for another strong year of gain on sale and fees with $64 million of this revenue source through three quarters. This is a very similar number as last year despite the higher rate environment, reflecting that our securitization profitability is unaffected by rates, a topic I will discuss in more detail in a few minutes. On the lower left, distributable net investment income was approximately $134 million year-to-date, reflecting year-over-year growth of 40%, driven by a larger portfolio and continued strong margins. In summary, despite higher rates and capital markets disruption, we were able to achieve our targeted level of profitability and are able to once again affirm our guidance. The next two slides both address interest rate risk in our business, a topic which we are frequently asked about. Page 9 addresses this risk related to our balance sheet and page 10 addresses our off-balance sheet investments. As the top left graph on page 9 indicates, we have maintained strong margins and are now entering a phase during which we expect our cost of debt to increase. However, most of that increase will be offset with higher yields on new investments, as Jeff described earlier. It is also important to note that, our current portfolio yield and cost of debt include a substantial amount of existing assets and liabilities. So neither figure will move up quickly as incremental investments in debt at higher rates will only initially comprise a modest percentage of the balance sheet. The primary conclusion of this chart is that in this illustrative scenario, we believe higher yields and higher debt costs would result in margins large enough to support a run rate of approximately 10% to 12% ROE consistent with our historic levels of profitability. On the upper right of the slide, we detail other factors, which we expect will allow us to maintain strong margins, including utilizing lower leverage and pivoting to bank and private debt, while public debt markets are volatile. Also, we have recently been asked about the refinancing of our low coupon debt maturing in 2026. Before addressing refinancing, I will note that issuing low-cost debt and substantial size in 2021 will continue to be a catalyst of strong margins over the 2021 to 2026 period. As it relates to refinancing this bond in 2026, there are several potential outcomes and several rate scenarios that may occur over the next four years. However, even if we assume a high cost outcome of simply refinancing it with a similar bond offering at a rate 350 to 400 basis points higher than its current coupon, we believe the size and profitability of our business by 2026 will be such that it will not cause our profitability to fall below our targeted ROE range. This is because by that time, the portfolio is expected to be larger and had a higher investment yield. This scenario also ignores the fact that our recent investment grade credit rating positions us more favorably for debt cost optimization when public debt markets return to more normalized historic patterns. The bottom portion of this slide reflects our illustrative business model in a rising rate environment, depicted as a percent of assets that reconciles back to our targeted ROE range of 10% to 12%. As we have stated several times, we have managed this business in markets in which rates have been high, low, flat, steep or inverted and have consistently maintained earnings growth. This is a reflection of the flexible business model we deploy using diversified sources of capital, both on and off balance sheet. Turning to slide 10. We've also received questions recently regarding our expected securitization activity now that rates have risen. To be clear, our securitization activity and the corresponding gains are not impacted by rates. Fluctuations in our gains are the result of volume and mix, non-interest rates. Our securitization transactions are fundamentally purchase and sale arrangements in which we typically buy receivables from clients, only after we have an agreed upon sale price from our securitization partner. We then closed the purchase and sale either simultaneously or typically within a short period, utilizing a rate lock to minimize interest rate risk. We do not use warehouse lines, nor do we typically hold these investments unhedged on our balance sheet, exposing ourselves to changes in rates prior to the receivables being sold. For example, in 2021 and 2022 year-to-date, over two-thirds of our securitization transactions have been simultaneous or hedged and the majority of the remainder had less than 30 days unhedged exposure. It is also important to note that these transactions occur outside of the ABS market and are not impacted by the dynamics and volatility of the ABS capital markets. These are bilateral arrangements with partners, primarily life insurance companies that have transacted with us over multiple decades including under a variety of interest rate and macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, this remains a flexible and resilient component of the business that is not subject to meaningful market risks. In 2021, we recorded $80 million of gain on sale and fees, reflecting a 23% increase from 2020. We are on track to duplicate that outstanding level of gains and fees in 2022 despite rates being much higher. Further evidence these gains are not rate sensitive. Turning to slide 11. We are pleased to highlight our successful recent debt transaction. Subsequent to quarter end, we closed a $383 million three-year Term Loan A arranged by JPMorgan and including six total banks. It bears a credit spread of 222.5 basis points above term SOFR, which can be reduced based on carbon count thresholds. When combined with the $600 million bank revolver we closed in the first quarter, we have successfully raised approximately $1 billion of bank debt in 2022. This support from the banks underscores the strength of our business model and our long-term predictable cash flows. These bank facilities have allowed us to pre-fund a meaningful portion of our expected 2023 investment fundings, while avoiding the currently volatile public debt markets, further evidence of the resiliency of our business and our ability to weather market disruptions. In the third quarter, we issued $49 million of equity at an average price of $36.85, with all of these transactions, our current liquidity has improved even further and is over $1.2 billion on a pro forma basis. Our fixed rate debt percentage was 93% at quarter end, and is expected to decrease modestly at year-end due to the term loan A. We also continue to manage our leverage in a consistent range and our debt-to-equity ratio was 1.7 times at year-end. Please note, we have an updated cash sources and uses slide on Page 15 in the appendix in the format that we began utilizing in the second quarter, reflecting that net cash collections remain well above the dividend. And $158 million of year-to-date excess cash collections can be utilized to fund new higher-yielding investments, further reducing our reliance on external funding. In summary, it was another quarter of strong growth in earnings and net investment income. The portfolio is performing as expected and our liquidity profile remains excellent. And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Jeff.