Jeff Lipson
Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead
Thanks Jeff, and thank you to everyone for joining the call. I will focus my remarks on three topics: number one, our financial results; number two, a noteworthy accounting change; and number three capital markets.As we turn to slide eight, I want to reiterate Jeff’s comments and emphasize that we had an outstanding year – excuse me, had an outstanding fourth quarter and are very pleased with the full year results. We were equally pleased with how well the company is situated to take advantage of current trends, which we expect will result in further earnings growth.Summarizing page eight, we recorded GAAP earnings per share of $1.24 in 2019, an increase of 65% over 2018. Core earnings per share increased to $1.40 in 2019, up from $1.38 in 2018 and above the previously communicated 2019 midpoint guidance of $1.37. An increase in portfolio yield is a primary driver.In addition, core net investment income was $82 million in 2019, a 22% increase over 2018, while gain in sale and fees were flat at approximately $39 million. As you can see on the slide, our fourth quarter GAAP earnings significantly exceeded our fourth quarter core earnings. The transaction that caused this difference is an excellent example that validates our core earnings methodology.Specifically, in the fourth quarter we sold a portfolio of wind projects that had flipped. So we had already collected the vast majority of our cash flows and thus the purchase price was roughly equal to our core book value, so we had no core gain or loss on the transaction. However, due to the GAAP methodology that frequently delays earnings on equity method investments, our GAAP book value was much lower and the sales resulted in a GAAP gain of approximately $28 million.Since the market price of this asset was equal to our core book value, this is a strong indication that our core earnings recognition for equity method investments is the appropriate methodology for investors to evaluate our results.Before continuing the slide deck, I would like to address one item that will impact future reporting of our results. Beginning in 2020, all public companies are subject to a new accounting standard, generally referred to as the current expected credit lost model, which is typically abbreviated as C-E-C-L or CECL. Under this accounting standard, we will be implementing unexpected loss methodology for certain of our assets at the time they are originated.For example, commercial receivables will require prior provisions, but equity method investments will not. For the relevant investments, we will create an allowance for the losses on the balance sheet and record a provision on the income statement. This provision and allowance accounting is similar to the method that many financial companies have utilized for years, although CECL has resulted in a decalibration of required provisions across the industry.Three additional brief thoughts regarding CECL. Number one, utilizing provision and allowance does not change the cash flow or the lifetime profitability of our investments, but it does reduce profitability in the first year of the investment.For example, a $10 million commercial receivables transaction with a 50 basis point allowance requirement results in a provision expense of $50,000 in the first year. However, the $50,000 will eventually become earnings in the future year if the investment performs as expected.Number two, CECL implementation does not reflect any change in our view of the actual credit quality of our investments and should not be interpreted as such. It is simply an accounting methodology change.And number three, the guidance we are clarifying today for 2020 is based on a pre-provision EPS estimate. For a transition period, we expect to report our core earnings on both a pre-provision and post provision basis.Turning to slide nine, we highlight the 23% compound annual increase in core net investment income over the last five years. This growth has been driven by two factors: number one, rotating lower yielding assets off the balance sheet and replacing them with higher yielding assets, which has driven our portfolio yield up 150 basis points over the last two years.And two, lower leverage, which has falling from above two times debt to equity in 2017 to 1.5x in 2019, resulting in reduced interest expense. We are extremely pleased with the significant increase in core net investment income, as it enhances the predictability of our core EPS and further stabilizes the business, given the long duration of our assets.Turning to slide 10, we highlight our flexible business model by growing our managed asset base and the subset of assets we keep on balance sheet, while also opportunistically executing on gain on sale transactions. We've been able to consistently achieve an attractive and stable return on equity despite global spread compression.Turning to slide 11, the credit quality of our portfolio remains strong as depicted in the pie chart on the upper right. All of our government and the vast majority of our commercial obligors enjoy investment grade ratings. In addition, the obligors of our residential solar assets include over 145,000 high credit quality consumers located across 22 states, and in our equity method investments, which by their nature do not lend themselves to simple obligor credit analysis; we are typically senior or preferred in the investment structure.As we turn to slide 12, I want to emphasize our continued access to debt and equity capital markets and historically attractive levels. With our strong recent stock performance and our debt trading at a yield below 4%, we feel very confident about our ability to raise capital and continue to grow our business.In 2019 we raised $500 million of corporate unsecured debt, $138 million of equity and completed several private secured financings. Following the filing of our 10K, we intend to refresh our at-the-market equity issuance shelf registration up to $250 million. As we continue to identify accretive investments, we expect to utilize the full arsenal of our funding alternatives, including the ATM, overnight or marketed equity offerings, unsecured debt, secured debt, syndications and off balance sheet securitizations.Note that we have no material recourse debt maturities until 2022, when our convertible bonds mature, and given our convertible notes may be settled in shares, this maturity does not necessarily reflect the cash need. This maturity profile, combined with the fact that the non-recourse debt largely amortizes within the contracted terms of the underlying assets, demonstrates that we are largely inoculated against near term refinance risk and interest rate movements.We have also changed the target range of our ratio of fixed rate debt to total debt from a range of 60% to 85% to a range of 75% to 100% to reflect our current and expected profile of limited floating rate debt. At 12/31 the fixed rate debt percentage was 98%.I will now turn the call back over to Jeff.